MODEL VERDICT
Trinity Capital Inc. (TRIN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $16.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $15.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $16.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $15.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $15.12 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $19.89 | +19.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $13.71 | -17.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 9 bank peers | $13.71 | -17.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $19.89 | +19.6% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $18.98 | +14.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $16.31 | -1.9% | 100% | 80 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $9 | $13 | $17 | $22 | $26 |
| Conservative (7%) | $9 | $13 | $18 | $22 | $27 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $9 | $14 | $18 | $23 | $27 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $9 | $14 | $19 | $24 | $28 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 6.31 | 6.97 | 3.62 | 7.69 | 1.83 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.37 | 10.20 | 6.81 | 14.28 | 3.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.54 | 10.55 | 6.81 | 14.28 | 3.05 |
| P/FFO | 9.30 | 9.14 | 7.74 | 11.18 | 1.42 |
| P/TBV | 0.95 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.07 | 0.12 |
| P/AFFO | 8.88 | 9.42 | 7.77 | 9.46 | 0.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.95 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.07 | 0.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.18 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.26 | 3.55 | 2.73 | 7.95 | 2.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates TRIN's fair value at $16.31 vs the current price of $16.63, implying -1.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $16.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $15.05 (P10) to $17.02 (P90), with a median of $16.01.
TRIN's current P/E of 8.0x compares to the industry median of 9.6x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -16.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 6.3x over 4 years. Signal: Discount.
7 analysts cover TRIN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.17 (range: $17.00 — $17.50), implying +3.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (1), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: TRIN trades at the 1960th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (6.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that TRIN's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (23.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6530.0% to approximately $6. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.