MODEL VERDICT
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $76.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $76.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $76.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $75.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $75.83 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $117.12 | +53.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $266.52 | +249.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $287.33 | +276.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $302.16 | +296.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $383.53 | +403.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $424.07 | +456.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $1340.02 | +1657.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 5 industry peers | $88.84 | +16.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $42.73 | -44.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $267.14 | +250.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $295.82 | +288.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $591.09 | +675.2% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 5× | 7× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (52%) | $152 | $152 | $152 | $190 | $266 |
| Conservative (85%) | $185 | $185 | $185 | $231 | $323 |
| Base Case (130.9%) | $230 | $230 | $230 | $288 | $403 |
| Bull Case (177%) | $276 | $276 | $276 | $345 | $483 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 150.92 | 20.02 | 3.19 | 874.47 | 320.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.42 | 14.45 | 2.11 | 84.87 | 31.14 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.70 | 12.25 | 2.08 | 52.53 | 17.73 |
| P/FCF | 23.49 | 16.53 | 3.64 | 49.31 | 21.91 |
| P/FFO | 15.10 | 14.05 | 2.96 | 29.25 | 9.84 |
| P/TBV | 2.12 | 1.91 | 1.55 | 2.90 | 0.47 |
| P/AFFO | 20.54 | 20.63 | 3.37 | 50.80 | 19.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.02 | 1.80 | 1.52 | 2.80 | 0.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.38 | 1.35 | 0.89 | 2.16 | 0.43 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CALM's fair value at $591.09 vs the current price of $76.25, implying +675.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $591.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $265.00 (P10) to $1284.54 (P90), with a median of $558.89.
CALM's current P/E of 3.1x compares to the industry median of 11.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -73.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 150.9x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
8 analysts cover CALM with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $85.00 (range: $85.00 — $85.00), implying +11.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (5), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 27.4% is 16.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (11.1%), with a Z-score of +1.4σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$1526. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CALM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.4σ, meaning margins are 1.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 190130.0% to approximately $1526. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.