MODEL VERDICT
Ultra Clean Holdings, Inc. (UCTT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $74.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $83.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $79.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $76.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $75.81 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $94.29 | +26.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $13.30 | -82.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $43.01 | -42.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $5.13 | -93.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $238.50 | +219.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $209.14 | +180.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $13.31 | -82.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $84.27 | +12.9% | 100% | 57 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.15 | 29.50 | 16.48 | 69.13 | 23.78 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.48 | 16.00 | 11.46 | 49.57 | 15.93 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.65 | 11.80 | 8.38 | 19.18 | 3.76 |
| P/FCF | 206.12 | 23.22 | 9.79 | 1085.69 | 431.60 |
| P/FFO | 22.16 | 15.12 | 10.46 | 49.87 | 14.99 |
| P/TBV | 4.86 | 3.66 | 2.24 | 9.17 | 2.49 |
| P/AFFO | 82.26 | 44.86 | 14.89 | 174.13 | 77.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.96 | 1.74 | 1.46 | 2.85 | 0.49 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.84 | 0.87 | 0.56 | 1.21 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates UCTT's fair value at $84.27 vs the current price of $74.61, implying +12.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $84.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $53.42 (P10) to $96.58 (P90), with a median of $72.70.
UCTT's current P/E of -18.7x compares to the industry median of 68.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -127.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.2x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
12 analysts cover UCTT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $85.00 (range: $70.00 — $100.00), implying +13.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for UCTT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.