MODEL VERDICT
UFP Technologies, Inc. (UFPT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $194.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $200.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $202.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $196.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $201.25 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $117.56 | -39.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $149.78 | -22.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $127.42 | -34.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $106.24 | -45.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $121.51 | -37.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $135.99 | -29.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $592.92 | +205.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $165.82 | -14.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $148.65 | -23.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $124.43 | -35.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $104.53 | -46.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $185.48 | -4.4% | 100% | 87 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $182 | $199 | $216 | $232 | $249 |
| Conservative (15%) | $192 | $210 | $227 | $245 | $262 |
| Base Case (23.6%) | $206 | $225 | $244 | $262 | $281 |
| Bull Case (32%) | $220 | $240 | $260 | $280 | $300 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 25.40 | 26.33 | 15.56 | 33.62 | 6.90 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.43 | 20.20 | 11.87 | 28.63 | 6.00 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.72 | 14.38 | 8.93 | 21.92 | 5.03 |
| P/FCF | 58.60 | 33.43 | 14.04 | 227.90 | 76.58 |
| P/FFO | 18.28 | 16.83 | 10.08 | 25.83 | 5.72 |
| P/TBV | 40.35 | 12.19 | 3.35 | 215.06 | 77.57 |
| P/AFFO | 22.88 | 22.64 | 13.35 | 29.72 | 6.40 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.23 | 2.75 | 1.59 | 5.55 | 1.47 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.46 | 2.55 | 1.17 | 3.77 | 0.89 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates UFPT's fair value at $185.48 vs the current price of $194.07, implying -4.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $185.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $128.64 (P10) to $218.61 (P90), with a median of $164.52.
UFPT's current P/E of 25.6x compares to the industry median of 16.8x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +52.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 25.4x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
2 analysts cover UFPT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $298.00 (range: $252.00 — $344.00), implying +53.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: UFPT trades at the 4190th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (25.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UFPT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1490.0% to approximately $165. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.