United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI)
Valuation Overview•Is United Natural Foods, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a discount to intrinsic cash flow value, implying pessimistic long-term market expectations.
Fragile underlying quality score of 21/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
Verdict: Highly distressed profile flashing severe fundamental warning signs.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. The company currently retains all capital for reinvestment and growth rather than returning it to shareholders.
UNFI struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company exhibits steady, low-single-digit revenue growth paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (0.3%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.9B | +2.6% | +3.2% | +3.7% | +14.5% | |
| EBITDA | $169.0M | — | -25.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $20.0M | -5.4% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.32 | -3.7% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $243.0M | +359.8% | +44.0% | -3.4% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 13.3% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 14.3% |
| Operating Margin | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% |
| Net Margin | -0.2% | -0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| FCF Margin | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.78 | $0.77 | -1.7% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.51 | $0.62 | +21.6% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.40 | $0.56 | +40.3% | ||
| Q3'25 | $-0.27 | $-0.11 | +59.3% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.24 | $0.44 | +83.3% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.18 | $0.22 | +22.2% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.02 | $0.16 | +900.0% | ||
| Q4'24 | $-0.08 | $0.01 | +112.5% |
Total return is +140.7% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +115.7%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +54.7% | +45.4% | — |
| 1Y | +140.7% | +115.7% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +36.2% | +14.8% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +8.0% | -6.2% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +1.4% | -12.7% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI) valuation, health, and returns.
United Natural Foods, Inc. is estimated to be undervalued under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Fair versus peers compared to industry peers. undervalued (implying +147.3% upside to DCF intrinsic value of $127.88)
United Natural Foods, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $127.88 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $54.33 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $44.67 (implying -13.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
United Natural Foods, Inc. displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 21/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 4.2 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of -0.5%.
United Natural Foods, Inc. does not return material capital to shareholders via dividends or share repurchases, electing to retain earnings to fund internal growth.
United Natural Foods, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +2.6% 1Y revenue growth and -3.7% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +3.2%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 43 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 83% of recent quarters with a -1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -13.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for United Natural Foods, Inc. include: -27.0% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 0.71x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.