MODEL VERDICT
Keysight Technologies, Inc. (KEYS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $352.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $346.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $334.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $325.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $324.18 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $197.16 | -44.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $141.08 | -60.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $180.19 | -48.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $208.35 | -40.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $150.76 | -57.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $235.30 | -33.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $66.53 | -81.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $154.14 | -56.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $153.10 | -56.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $179.57 | -49.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $280.54 | -20.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $184.81 | -47.6% | 100% | 97 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 60× | 66× | 72× (Current) | 78× | 84× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $302 | $332 | $363 | $393 | $423 |
| Conservative (5%) | $308 | $339 | $370 | $400 | $431 |
| Base Case (8.0%) | $316 | $348 | $379 | $411 | $443 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $324 | $357 | $389 | $422 | $454 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 36.65 | 39.79 | 26.92 | 45.76 | 7.76 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.73 | 29.87 | 19.53 | 35.43 | 5.52 |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.40 | 23.09 | 17.85 | 29.64 | 4.56 |
| P/FCF | 28.35 | 27.77 | 22.33 | 33.64 | 4.37 |
| P/FFO | 26.93 | 26.20 | 21.10 | 32.53 | 4.90 |
| P/TBV | 17.15 | 15.02 | 9.96 | 30.38 | 6.77 |
| P/AFFO | 31.35 | 29.86 | 24.23 | 38.51 | 5.92 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.06 | 6.53 | 5.51 | 10.21 | 1.59 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.92 | 5.74 | 4.56 | 7.82 | 1.04 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates KEYS's fair value at $184.81 vs the current price of $352.40, implying -47.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $184.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $157.92 (P10) to $208.09 (P90), with a median of $182.55.
KEYS's current P/E of 72.2x compares to the industry median of 36.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +95.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 36.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
15 analysts cover KEYS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $289.25 (range: $220.00 — $384.00), implying -17.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: KEYS trades at the 6560th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (36.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that KEYS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 5040.0% to approximately $175. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.