Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$16.91
→
Intrinsic$108.17
+540%
$71.32$108.17$178.24
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests VIV could have 540% upside at 8% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $17, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 8%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $71 → Bull $178. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $130 | $142 | $156 | $171 |
| 10% | $90 | $99 | $108 | $118 |
| 12% | $68 | $75 | $82 | $89 |
| 14% | $54 | $59 | $65 | $71 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($178) offers 954% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (8%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($71) with 6% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$11.40B
Year 2$12.31B
Year 3$13.29B
Year 4$14.36B
Year 5$15.51B
Terminal$228.15B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$10.55BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Regulated returns may affect assumptions. See FAQ below for full methodology.