MODEL VERDICT
Werner Enterprises, Inc. (WERN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $35.91 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $33.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $32.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $30.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $32.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $31.62 | -11.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $70.60 | +96.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $26.25 | -26.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $74.73 | +108.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $74.50 | +107.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $46.34 | +29.0% | 100% | 53 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.00 | 15.68 | 10.76 | 65.31 | 20.75 |
| EV/EBIT | 33.78 | 12.69 | 9.59 | 137.48 | 46.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.53 | 6.30 | 5.35 | 8.17 | 0.94 |
| P/FFO | 6.25 | 6.30 | 4.99 | 6.93 | 0.63 |
| P/TBV | 2.07 | 2.05 | 1.49 | 2.62 | 0.37 |
| P/AFFO | 108.22 | 112.73 | 20.74 | 186.68 | 71.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.89 | 1.75 | 1.31 | 2.37 | 0.42 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.90 | 0.82 | 0.61 | 1.18 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates WERN's fair value at $46.34 vs the current price of $35.91, implying +29.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 53/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $46.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $36.26 (P10) to $50.43 (P90), with a median of $43.04.
WERN's current P/E of -149.6x compares to the industry median of 43.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -442.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.0x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
36 analysts cover WERN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $36.10 (range: $29.00 — $45.00), implying +0.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (10), Hold (22), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 53/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for WERN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.