MODEL VERDICT
Heartland Express, Inc. (HTLD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.33 | $13.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $13.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $11.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $10.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $11.01 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $14.45 | +7.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $15.70 | +16.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $15.62 | +16.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $15.40 | +14.3% | 100% | 50 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.08 | 20.80 | 9.08 | 75.05 | 26.28 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.59 | 14.42 | 8.42 | 32.17 | 9.28 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.73 | 7.11 | 6.87 | 10.11 | 1.22 |
| P/FFO | 6.81 | 6.59 | 4.54 | 9.97 | 1.85 |
| P/TBV | 2.61 | 2.54 | 1.94 | 3.53 | 0.51 |
| P/AFFO | 91.73 | 26.50 | 11.42 | 216.11 | 99.56 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.59 | 1.42 | 0.93 | 2.52 | 0.57 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.61 | 1.25 | 0.84 | 2.89 | 0.83 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 8 valuation metrics, the model estimates HTLD's fair value at $15.40 vs the current price of $13.47, implying +14.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 50/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $15.40 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.14 (P10) to $15.11 (P90), with a median of $12.62.
HTLD's current P/E of -20.1x compares to the industry median of 45.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -144.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.1x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover HTLD with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $12.00 (range: $9.00 — $15.00), implying -10.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (14), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 50/100, based on: data completeness (9), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for HTLD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.