MODEL VERDICT
Woori Financial Group Inc. (WF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $69.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $67.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $74.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $71.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $70.43 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $208908.72 | +298768.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $180296.66 | +257835.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $3873.69 | +5441.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $141284.16 | +202023.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $208907.25 | +298765.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $2485.06 | +3455.2% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $91571.72 | +130903.9% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $56194 | $84290 | $112387 | $140484 | $168581 |
| Conservative (13%) | $58796 | $88193 | $117591 | $146989 | $176387 |
| Base Case (20.0%) | $62437 | $93655 | $124873 | $156091 | $187310 |
| Bull Case (27%) | $66079 | $99118 | $132157 | $165197 | $198236 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.22 | 13.44 | 8.62 | 24.13 | 4.79 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.94 | 11.02 | 7.15 | 14.10 | 2.84 |
| P/FCF | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/FFO | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/TBV | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/AFFO | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Div Yield | 92.52 | 86.59 | 56.02 | 132.07 | 27.94 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates WF's fair value at $91571.72 vs the current price of $69.90, implying +130903.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $91571.72 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $79000.64 (P10) to $103591.91 (P90), with a median of $89842.44.
WF's current P/E of 7.9x compares to the industry median of 16.1x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -50.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 0.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover WF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: WF trades at the 380th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (0.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (17.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 510.0% to approximately $66. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.