MODEL VERDICT
Clear Secure, Inc. (YOU)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $54.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $54.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $53.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $51.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $51.36 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $39.88 | -27.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $35.19 | -36.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $36.33 | -33.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $59.18 | +7.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $48.39 | -12.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $57.10 | +3.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $28.56 | -48.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $27.03 | -50.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $36.60 | -33.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $79.90 | +45.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $51.33 | -6.6% | 100% | 76 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 41× | 45× | 49× (Current) | 53× | 57× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $48 | $52 | $57 | $62 | $66 |
| Conservative (7%) | $49 | $54 | $58 | $63 | $68 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $51 | $55 | $60 | $65 | $70 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $52 | $57 | $62 | $67 | $72 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 38.34 | 31.32 | 17.08 | 66.61 | 25.50 |
| EV/EBIT | 48.41 | 31.69 | 16.14 | 97.40 | 43.13 |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.36 | 26.08 | 15.05 | 46.94 | 16.20 |
| P/FCF | 21.83 | 13.57 | 9.51 | 59.63 | 21.32 |
| P/FFO | 23.30 | 19.63 | 12.25 | 38.02 | 13.27 |
| P/TBV | 13.16 | 6.62 | 5.24 | 24.56 | 10.20 |
| P/AFFO | 37.59 | 20.91 | 13.69 | 78.17 | 35.33 |
| P/B Ratio | 9.38 | 5.12 | 4.41 | 16.70 | 6.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 5.32 | 5.00 | 3.08 | 9.57 | 2.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates YOU's fair value at $51.33 vs the current price of $54.98, implying -6.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $51.33 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.16 (P10) to $65.63 (P90), with a median of $51.61.
YOU's current P/E of 49.1x compares to the industry median of 32.4x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +51.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 38.3x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
9 analysts cover YOU with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $59.75 (range: $51.00 — $65.00), implying +8.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (3), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: YOU trades at the 7760th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (38.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for YOU.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.