MODEL VERDICT
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, competitive benchmarking & quality-adjusted fair value
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. is currently trading at a 1649.87% discount to its peer-implied fair value.
7 curated peers matched by core operations and segment-adjacent attributes
| Ticker | Company | Market Cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GXO | GXO Logistics, Inc. | $5.77B | 179.25x | 14.53x |
| XPO | XPO Logistics, Inc. | $23.65B | 76.31x | 22.44x |
| UPS | United Parcel Service, Inc. | $91.82B | 16.47x | 9.68x |
| FDX | FedEx Corporation | $76B | 17.17x | 9.61x |
| ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | $45.5B | 45.3x | 26.38x |
| SAIA | Saia, Inc. | $11.48B | 45.22x | 19.77x |
| ARCB | ArcBest Corporation | $3.26B | 55.84x | 14.69x |
4 valuation metrics · peer-median based
| Multiple | Current | Peer Median | vs Peers | Implied Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/EPrice paid for next year's expected earnings. | 1.6x | 24.23x | Discount -93.39% | $331.30 |
| P/EPrice paid for current earnings. | 13.64x | 45.3x | Discount -69.9% | $474.22 |
| EV/EBITDAEnterprise value versus operating cash earnings proxy. | 9.42x | 14.69x | Discount -35.86% | $253.80 |
| P/FCFPrice paid for free cash flow. | 19.99x | 47.64x | Discount -58.04% | $342.10 |
How the model derives the final fair value from peer baselines and quality metrics
Opportunity: The stock is trading at a 94.29% discount to its quality-adjusted fair value of $383.39. To reach its estimated fair value, the stock would need to appreciate by 1649.85% from its current price of $21.91.
Quality metrics are stronger than the peer group, justifying a premium.
Quality adjustments are capped at ±15% (up to ±20% for financial services) to prevent runaway premiums. Based on trailing twelve months and multi-year CAGR data where available.
How current multiples rank vs 8 years of the stock’s own history
| Multiple | Current | Historical Median | Percentile | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E8 years of data | 13.64x | 2.97x | 100th | Above historical norm |
| EV/EBITDA8 years of data | 9.42x | 1.69x | 100th | Above historical norm |
| P/FCF6 years of data | 19.99x | 4.19x | 83th | Above historical norm |
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. currently trades near the highest valuation levels observed during the last 8 years.
Wall Street target prices — 10 analysts
Model-identified caveats to consider
ZTO looks cheap versus peers using curated peers, with relative upside of 1649.9%.
Answers to common questions about ZTO's relative valuation and our methodology.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s fair value of $383.40 is the price at which the stock would trade if valued at the same multiples as its 7-company peer group, adjusted for differences in business quality. At $21.91, the stock trades at a +1649.89% discount to fair value. This is a reference point, not a price target.
A core set of peers matched by business model was augmented with segment-adjacent companies sharing key business attributes, bringing the total to 7 clean peers. Only companies with usable financial data are included.
ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. has strengths in 3y revenue growth, 3y eps growth, roic, net debt / ebitda, and a quality score that justifies a 9.6% premium relative to its peer group. The Quality Adjustment section breaks down each driver.
No. This page provides an automated quantitative comparison of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. against its peers. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation. Valuation is only one factor in an investment decision — it does not account for growth catalysts, management quality, regulatory risk, or your personal financial situation.
A 1649.89% discount is substantial. Large discounts may signal that the market is overlooking value, but they can also reflect genuine business challenges or structural headwinds. Review the Risk Factors and Historical Context sections to assess whether the gap is justified.
Valuation data is refreshed weekly based on the latest financial filings, market prices, and analyst estimates. ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s fair value, peer multiples, and quality scores will shift over time as new earnings are reported and stock prices change.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Fair value estimates are model outputs under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.