MODEL VERDICT
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $107.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $107.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $106.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $103.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $101.69 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $204.13 | +89.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $198.80 | +84.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $245.44 | +128.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $155.90 | +44.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $298.39 | +177.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $168.82 | +56.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $671.47 | +524.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $131.59 | +22.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $159.92 | +48.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $245.44 | +128.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $203.31 | +89.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $212.77 | +97.8% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (13%) | $89 | $104 | $119 | $134 | $149 |
| Conservative (22%) | $96 | $112 | $128 | $144 | $160 |
| Base Case (33.6%) | $105 | $123 | $140 | $158 | $175 |
| Bull Case (45%) | $114 | $134 | $153 | $172 | $191 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.57 | 18.65 | 13.17 | 109.35 | 34.91 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.09 | 15.35 | 10.91 | 66.66 | 19.90 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.89 | 12.18 | 9.06 | 16.00 | 2.24 |
| P/FCF | 24.20 | 17.69 | 16.22 | 45.03 | 10.51 |
| P/FFO | 15.34 | 11.88 | 9.05 | 36.30 | 9.44 |
| P/TBV | 14.92 | 13.18 | 11.51 | 23.26 | 4.84 |
| P/AFFO | 55.95 | 17.92 | 14.97 | 242.20 | 91.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 41.50 | 7.81 | 5.19 | 219.25 | 78.88 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.46 | 1.49 | 0.95 | 1.94 | 0.33 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates UPS's fair value at $212.77 vs the current price of $107.59, implying +97.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $212.77 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $163.60 (P10) to $216.70 (P90), with a median of $188.99.
UPS's current P/E of 16.4x compares to the industry median of 37.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -56.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.6x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
45 analysts cover UPS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $115.23 (range: $85.00 — $128.00), implying +7.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (2), Buy (18), Hold (21), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that UPS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 23060.0% to approximately $356. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.