NODK vs ERIE vs ACGL vs HRTG

For growth investors, Arch Capital Group Ltd.

(ACGL) is the stronger pick with 14. 3% revenue growth year-over-year, versus -100. 0% for NI Holdings, Inc. (NODK). Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) offers the better valuation at 4. 4x trailing P/E (6. 1x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) a "Buy" — based on 34 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.

On trailing P/E, Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.

(HRTG) is the cheapest at 4. 4x versus Erie Indemnity Company at 20. 4x. On forward P/E, Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. is actually cheaper at 6. 1x. The PEG ratio (P/E divided by earnings growth rate) is the most growth-adjusted single valuation metric: Arch Capital Group Ltd. wins at 0. 35x versus Erie Indemnity Company's 1. 26x — a PEG below 1. 0 traditionally signals the market is underpricing earnings growth.

Over the past 5 years, Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.

(HRTG) delivered a total return of +201. 4%, compared to -30. 8% for NI Holdings, Inc. (NODK). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: ACGL returned +324. 0% versus NODK's -12. 4%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.

By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Arch Capital Group Ltd.

(ACGL) is the lower-risk stock at 0. 02β versus NI Holdings, Inc. 's 0. 57β — meaning NODK is approximately 3607% more volatile than ACGL relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 11% versus 20% for Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.

By revenue growth (latest reported year), Arch Capital Group Ltd.

(ACGL) is pulling ahead at 14. 3% versus -100. 0% for NI Holdings, Inc. (NODK). On earnings-per-share growth, the picture is similar: Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. grew EPS 214. 4% year-over-year, compared to -100. 0% for NI Holdings, Inc.. Over a 3-year CAGR, ACGL leads at 27. 3% annualised revenue growth. Higher growth typically commands a higher valuation multiple — check whether the premium P/E or P/S is justified by the growth rate using the PEG ratio.

Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.

(HRTG) is the more profitable company, earning 23. 1% net margin versus 0. 9% for NI Holdings, Inc. — meaning it keeps 23. 1% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: HRTG leads at 30. 6% versus 1. 5% for NODK. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — HRTG leads at 63. 0%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.

The PEG ratio (forward P/E divided by expected earnings growth rate) is the most precise measure of undervaluation relative to growth potential.

By this metric, Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) is the more undervalued stock at a PEG of 0. 35x versus Erie Indemnity Company's 1. 26x. A PEG below 1. 0 is traditionally considered the threshold for growth-adjusted undervaluation. On forward earnings alone, Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (HRTG) trades at 6. 1x forward P/E versus 17. 1x for Erie Indemnity Company — 11. 1x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for HRTG: 39. 1% to $39. 00.

In this comparison, ERIE (2.

2% yield) pays a dividend. NODK, ACGL, HRTG do not pay a meaningful dividend and should not be held primarily for income.

For long-horizon retirement investors, Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β 0.

16), 2. 2% yield, +171. 6% 10Y return). Both have compounded well over 10 years (ERIE: +171. 6%, NODK: -12. 4%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.

Both stocks operate in the Financial Services sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both.

In terms of investment character: NODK is a small-cap quality compounder stock; ERIE is a mid-cap quality compounder stock; ACGL is a mid-cap deep-value stock; HRTG is a small-cap deep-value stock. ERIE pays a dividend while NODK, ACGL, HRTG do not, making them suitable for different income and tax situations. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.