Independent Power Producers
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VST vs NRG vs CEG vs EXC
Revenue, margins, valuation, and 5-year total return — side by side.
Independent Power Producers
Renewable Utilities
Regulated Electric
VST vs NRG vs CEG vs EXC — Key Financials
Market cap, revenue, margins, and valuation side-by-side.
| Company Snapshot | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry | Independent Power Producers | Independent Power Producers | Renewable Utilities | Regulated Electric |
| Market Cap | $52.15B | $30.41B | $97.23B | $45.43B |
| Revenue (TTM) | $17.20B | $32.38B | $25.53B | $24.79B |
| Net Income (TTM) | $2.19B | $239M | $2.32B | $2.78B |
| Gross Margin | 6.5% | 14.5% | 75.8% | 29.5% |
| Operating Margin | 7.6% | 3.2% | 12.1% | 21.0% |
| Forward P/E | 18.0x | 15.5x | 26.8x | 15.6x |
| Total Debt | $20.39B | $16.77B | $8.99B | $50.55B |
| Cash & Equiv. | $816M | $4.74B | $3.75B | $1.15B |
VST vs NRG vs CEG vs EXC — Long-Term Stock Performance
Price return indexed to 100 at period start. Dividends excluded.
| Stock | Jan 22 | May 26 | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vistra Corp. (VST) | 100 | 706.3 | +606.3% |
| NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) | 100 | 354.9 | +254.9% |
| Constellation Energ… (CEG) | 100 | 648.5 | +548.5% |
| Exelon Corporation (EXC) | 100 | 107.5 | +7.5% |
Price return only. Dividends and distributions are not included.
Quick Verdict: VST vs NRG vs CEG vs EXC
Each card shows where this stock fits in a portfolio — not just who wins on paper.
VST is the #2 pick in this set and the best alternative if long-term compounding is your priority.
- 9.4% 10Y total return vs NRG's 8.7%
- 12.7% margin vs NRG's 0.7%
- 7.4% ROA vs NRG's 0.8%, ROIC 4.3% vs 10.6%
NRG carries the broadest edge in this set and is the clearest fit for income & stability and growth exposure.
- Dividend streak 8 yrs, beta 1.84, yield 1.5%
- Rev growth 9.2%, EPS growth -19.6%, 3Y rev CAGR -0.9%
- 9.2% revenue growth vs VST's -12.4%
- Lower P/E (15.5x vs 15.6x), PEG 1.09 vs 2.44
CEG is the clearest fit if your priority is sleep-well-at-night and valuation efficiency.
- Lower volatility, beta 1.44, Low D/E 60.5%, current ratio 1.53x
- PEG 0.82 vs EXC's 2.44
- Beta 1.44, yield 0.5%, current ratio 1.53x
- Beta 1.44 vs NRG's 1.84, lower leverage
EXC lags the leaders in this set but could rank higher in a more targeted comparison.
See the full category breakdown
| Category | Winner | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Growth | 9.2% revenue growth vs VST's -12.4% | |
| Value | Lower P/E (15.5x vs 15.6x), PEG 1.09 vs 2.44 | |
| Quality / Margins | 12.7% margin vs NRG's 0.7% | |
| Stability / Safety | Beta 1.44 vs NRG's 1.84, lower leverage | |
| Dividends | 1.5% yield, 8-year raise streak, vs EXC's 3.6% | |
| Momentum (1Y) | +21.0% vs EXC's -0.7% | |
| Efficiency (ROA) | 7.4% ROA vs NRG's 0.8%, ROIC 4.3% vs 10.6% |
VST vs NRG vs CEG vs EXC — Revenue Breakdown by Segment
How each company's revenue is distributed across its business units
VST vs NRG vs CEG vs EXC — Financial Metrics
Side-by-side numbers across 4 stocks — who leads on profitability, valuation, growth, and risk.
Who Leads Where
VST leads in 2 of 6 categories
CEG leads 1 • EXC leads 1 • NRG leads 0 • 2 tied
Explore the data ↓Income & Cash Flow (Last 12 Months)
VST leads this category, winning 3 of 6 comparable metrics.
Income & Cash Flow (Last 12 Months)
NRG is the larger business by revenue, generating $32.4B annually — 1.9x VST's $17.2B. VST is the more profitable business, keeping 12.7% of every revenue dollar as net income compared to NRG's 0.7%. On growth, NRG holds the edge at +19.5% YoY revenue growth, suggesting stronger near-term business momentum.
| Metric | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RevenueTrailing 12 months | $17.2B | $32.4B | $25.5B | $24.8B |
| EBITDAEarnings before interest/tax | $3.1B | $3.1B | $4.7B | $8.9B |
| Net IncomeAfter-tax profit | $2.2B | $239M | $2.3B | $2.8B |
| Free Cash FlowCash after capex | $2.0B | -$7.7B | $1.3B | -$2.2B |
| Gross MarginGross profit ÷ Revenue | +6.5% | +14.5% | +75.8% | +29.5% |
| Operating MarginEBIT ÷ Revenue | +7.6% | +3.2% | +12.1% | +21.0% |
| Net MarginNet income ÷ Revenue | +12.7% | +0.7% | +9.1% | +11.2% |
| FCF MarginFCF ÷ Revenue | +11.7% | -23.7% | +5.0% | -8.7% |
| Rev. Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +9.1% | +19.5% | +1.4% | +7.9% |
| EPS Growth (YoY)Latest quarter vs prior year | +100.0% | -85.6% | -49.1% | 0.0% |
Valuation Metrics
Evenly matched — NRG and EXC each lead in 3 of 7 comparable metrics.
Valuation Metrics
At 16.2x trailing earnings, EXC trades at a 77% valuation discount to VST's 69.7x P/E. Adjusting for growth (PEG ratio), CEG offers better value at 1.29x vs VST's 6.23x — a lower PEG means you pay less per unit of expected earnings growth.
| Metric | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market CapShares × price | $52.2B | $30.4B | $97.2B | $45.4B |
| Enterprise ValueMkt cap + debt − cash | $71.7B | $42.4B | $102.5B | $94.8B |
| Trailing P/EPrice ÷ TTM EPS | 69.70x | 35.34x | 42.06x | 16.21x |
| Forward P/EPrice ÷ next-FY EPS est. | 17.95x | 15.46x | 26.83x | 15.57x |
| PEG RatioP/E ÷ EPS growth rate | 6.23x | 2.50x | 1.29x | 2.54x |
| EV / EBITDAEnterprise value multiple | 16.74x | 11.15x | 25.17x | 10.79x |
| Price / SalesMarket cap ÷ Revenue | 3.07x | 0.99x | 3.81x | 1.87x |
| Price / BookPrice ÷ Book value/share | 10.24x | 16.78x | 6.58x | 1.56x |
| Price / FCFMarket cap ÷ FCF | 404.28x | 39.70x | 75.49x | — |
Profitability & Efficiency
CEG leads this category, winning 6 of 9 comparable metrics.
Profitability & Efficiency
VST delivers a 57.8% return on equity — every $100 of shareholder capital generates $58 in annual profit, vs $9 for NRG. CEG carries lower financial leverage with a 0.61x debt-to-equity ratio, signaling a more conservative balance sheet compared to NRG's 9.97x. On the Piotroski fundamental quality scale (0–9), CEG scores 7/9 vs VST's 4/9, reflecting strong financial health.
| Metric | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROE (TTM)Return on equity | +57.8% | +8.8% | +15.6% | +9.8% |
| ROA (TTM)Return on assets | +7.4% | +0.8% | +4.1% | +2.4% |
| ROICReturn on invested capital | +4.3% | +10.6% | +11.9% | +5.1% |
| ROCEReturn on capital employed | +4.5% | +10.2% | +6.5% | +5.0% |
| Piotroski ScoreFundamental quality 0–9 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| Debt / EquityFinancial leverage | 3.99x | 9.97x | 0.61x | 1.76x |
| Net DebtTotal debt minus cash | $19.6B | $12.0B | $5.2B | $49.4B |
| Cash & Equiv.Liquid assets | $816M | $4.7B | $3.7B | $1.2B |
| Total DebtShort + long-term debt | $20.4B | $16.8B | $9.0B | $50.6B |
| Interest CoverageEBIT ÷ Interest expense | 1.95x | 2.40x | 6.04x | 2.42x |
Total Returns (Dividends Reinvested)
VST leads this category, winning 4 of 6 comparable metrics.
Total Returns (Dividends Reinvested)
A $10,000 investment in VST five years ago would be worth $98,469 today (with dividends reinvested), compared to $16,183 for EXC. Over the past 12 months, NRG leads with a +21.0% total return vs EXC's -0.7%. The 3-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) favors VST at 88.5% vs EXC's 4.7% — a key indicator of consistent wealth creation.
| Metric | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YTD ReturnYear-to-date | -6.6% | -14.1% | -14.9% | +2.1% |
| 1-Year ReturnPast 12 months | +11.1% | +21.0% | +16.7% | -0.7% |
| 3-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +570.1% | +369.0% | +300.9% | +14.6% |
| 5-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +884.7% | +330.5% | +653.2% | +61.8% |
| 10-Year ReturnCumulative with dividends | +942.3% | +870.6% | +653.2% | +125.0% |
| CAGR (3Y)Annualised 3-year return | +88.5% | +67.4% | +58.9% | +4.7% |
Risk & Volatility
EXC leads this category, winning 2 of 2 comparable metrics.
Risk & Volatility
EXC is the less volatile stock with a -0.14 beta — it tends to amplify market swings less than NRG's 1.84 beta. A beta below 1.0 means the stock typically moves less than the S&P 500. EXC currently trades 87.7% from its 52-week high vs VST's 70.1% drawdown — a narrower gap to the peak suggests stronger recent price momentum.
| Metric | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta (5Y)Sensitivity to S&P 500 | 1.56x | 1.84x | 1.44x | -0.14x |
| 52-Week HighHighest price in past year | $219.82 | $189.96 | $412.70 | $50.65 |
| 52-Week LowLowest price in past year | $133.73 | $115.48 | $243.30 | $41.71 |
| % of 52W HighCurrent price vs 52-week peak | +70.1% | +74.6% | +75.4% | +87.7% |
| RSI (14)Momentum oscillator 0–100 | 49.5 | 44.4 | 60.7 | 33.7 |
| Avg Volume (50D)Average daily shares traded | 4.1M | 2.8M | 2.8M | 8.3M |
Analyst Outlook
Evenly matched — NRG and EXC each lead in 1 of 2 comparable metrics.
Analyst Outlook
Analyst consensus: VST as "Buy", NRG as "Buy", CEG as "Buy", EXC as "Hold". Consensus price targets imply 47.7% upside for VST (target: $228) vs 10.7% for EXC (target: $49). For income investors, EXC offers the higher dividend yield at 3.60% vs CEG's 0.50%.
| Metric | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Analyst RatingConsensus buy/hold/sell | Buy | Buy | Buy | Hold |
| Price TargetConsensus 12-month target | $227.60 | $194.00 | $405.33 | $49.18 |
| # AnalystsCovering analysts | 21 | 26 | 19 | 35 |
| Dividend YieldAnnual dividend ÷ price | +0.6% | +1.5% | +0.5% | +3.6% |
| Dividend StreakConsecutive years of raises | 6 | 8 | 3 | 1 |
| Dividend / ShareAnnual DPS | $0.90 | $2.07 | $1.55 | $1.60 |
| Buyback YieldShare repurchases ÷ mkt cap | +2.0% | +4.6% | +0.4% | 0.0% |
VST leads in 2 of 6 categories (Income & Cash Flow, Total Returns). CEG leads in 1 (Profitability & Efficiency). 2 tied.
VST vs NRG vs CEG vs EXC: Key Questions Answered
10 questions · data-driven answers · updated daily
01Is VST or NRG or CEG or EXC a better buy right now?
For growth investors, NRG Energy, Inc.
(NRG) is the stronger pick with 9. 2% revenue growth year-over-year, versus -12. 4% for Vistra Corp. (VST). Exelon Corporation (EXC) offers the better valuation at 16. 2x trailing P/E (15. 6x forward), making it the more compelling value choice. Analysts rate Vistra Corp. (VST) a "Buy" — based on 21 analyst ratings — the highest consensus in this comparison. The "better buy" depends entirely on your goals: growth investors should weight revenue trajectory, value investors should weight P/E and PEG, and income investors should weight dividend yield and streak.
02Which has the better valuation — VST or NRG or CEG or EXC?
On trailing P/E, Exelon Corporation (EXC) is the cheapest at 16.
2x versus Vistra Corp. at 69. 7x. On forward P/E, NRG Energy, Inc. is actually cheaper at 15. 5x — notably different from the trailing picture, reflecting expected earnings growth. The PEG ratio (P/E divided by earnings growth rate) is the most growth-adjusted single valuation metric: Constellation Energy Corporation wins at 0. 82x versus Exelon Corporation's 2. 44x — a PEG below 1. 0 traditionally signals the market is underpricing earnings growth.
03Which is the better long-term investment — VST or NRG or CEG or EXC?
Over the past 5 years, Vistra Corp.
(VST) delivered a total return of +884. 7%, compared to +61. 8% for Exelon Corporation (EXC). Over 10 years, the gap is even starker: VST returned +942. 3% versus EXC's +125. 0%. Past returns do not guarantee future results, and the stock with the higher historical return may already have its best growth priced in.
04Which is safer — VST or NRG or CEG or EXC?
By beta (market sensitivity over 5 years), Exelon Corporation (EXC) is the lower-risk stock at -0.
14β versus NRG Energy, Inc. 's 1. 84β — meaning NRG is approximately -1414% more volatile than EXC relative to the S&P 500. On balance sheet safety, Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) carries a lower debt/equity ratio of 61% versus 10% for NRG Energy, Inc. — giving it more financial flexibility in a downturn.
05Which is growing faster — VST or NRG or CEG or EXC?
By revenue growth (latest reported year), NRG Energy, Inc.
(NRG) is pulling ahead at 9. 2% versus -12. 4% for Vistra Corp. (VST). On earnings-per-share growth, the picture is similar: Exelon Corporation grew EPS 11. 8% year-over-year, compared to -68. 4% for Vistra Corp.. Over a 3-year CAGR, EXC leads at 8. 3% annualised revenue growth. Higher growth typically commands a higher valuation multiple — check whether the premium P/E or P/S is justified by the growth rate using the PEG ratio.
06Which has better profit margins — VST or NRG or CEG or EXC?
Exelon Corporation (EXC) is the more profitable company, earning 11.
4% net margin versus 2. 8% for NRG Energy, Inc. — meaning it keeps 11. 4% of every revenue dollar as bottom-line profit. Operating margin tells a similar story: EXC leads at 21. 2% versus 6. 0% for NRG. At the gross margin level — before operating expenses — CEG leads at 75. 8%, reflecting greater pricing power or product mix advantage. Stronger margins indicate durable pricing power, lower cost of revenue, or higher mix of software/services. They are one of the clearest signs of business quality.
07Is VST or NRG or CEG or EXC more undervalued right now?
The PEG ratio (forward P/E divided by expected earnings growth rate) is the most precise measure of undervaluation relative to growth potential.
By this metric, Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) is the more undervalued stock at a PEG of 0. 82x versus Exelon Corporation's 2. 44x. A PEG below 1. 0 is traditionally considered the threshold for growth-adjusted undervaluation. On forward earnings alone, NRG Energy, Inc. (NRG) trades at 15. 5x forward P/E versus 26. 8x for Constellation Energy Corporation — 11. 4x cheaper on a one-year earnings basis. Analyst consensus price targets imply the most upside for VST: 47. 7% to $227. 60.
08Which pays a better dividend — VST or NRG or CEG or EXC?
All stocks in this comparison pay dividends.
Exelon Corporation (EXC) offers the highest yield at 3. 6%, versus 0. 5% for Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG).
09Is VST or NRG or CEG or EXC better for a retirement portfolio?
For long-horizon retirement investors, Exelon Corporation (EXC) is the stronger choice — it scores higher on the combination of lower volatility, dividend reliability, and long-term compounding (low volatility (β -0.
14), 3. 6% yield, +125. 0% 10Y return). Both have compounded well over 10 years (EXC: +125. 0%, CEG: +653. 2%), confirming both are viable long-term holds — but the lower-volatility option typically results in less emotional selling during corrections. Retirement portfolios generally favour predictability over maximum returns. Consult a financial advisor before making allocation decisions.
10What are the main differences between VST and NRG and CEG and EXC?
Both stocks operate in the Utilities sector, making this a peer-level intra-sector comparison — the same macro tailwinds and headwinds will affect both.
In terms of investment character: VST is a mid-cap quality compounder stock; NRG is a mid-cap quality compounder stock; CEG is a mid-cap quality compounder stock; EXC is a mid-cap deep-value stock. VST, NRG, EXC pay a dividend while CEG does not, making them suitable for different income and tax situations. These fundamental differences mean investors should not choose between them on a single metric — the "better stock" depends entirely on which of these characteristics aligns with your investment strategy.
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