Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing AGI more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
13
analysts
7 bullish · 0 bearish · 13 covering AGI
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$55
+40.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
13
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $16.3B
AGI price targets
Three scenarios for where AGI stock could go
Current
~$39
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $39
Base
$72
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$72+84.9%
At 25x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Alamos Gold Inc.
AGI · NYSEBasic MaterialsGoldDecember year-end
Alamos Gold is a mid-tier gold producer that operates mines in North America — primarily in Canada and Mexico — and explores for new gold deposits. The company generates revenue almost entirely from gold sales (over 95%), with minor contributions from silver by-products. Its competitive advantage lies in a portfolio of long-life, low-cost mines with significant exploration upside and a strong balance sheet that supports disciplined growth.
Market Cap
$16.3B
Revenue TTM
$2.1B
Net Income TTM
$1.1B
Net Margin
51.4%
AGI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.34/$0.33
Revenue
$438M/$494M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.37/$0.37
Revenue
$457M/$641M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.54/$0.49
Revenue
$575M/$568M
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.54/$0.54
Revenue
$597M/$612M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.34/$0.33 | +3.0% | $438M/$494M | -11.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.37/$0.37 | +0.0% | $457M/$641M | -28.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.54/$0.49 | +10.2% | $575M/$568M | +1.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.54/$0.54 | +0.0% | $597M/$612M | -2.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.7B
+31.8% YoY
FY2
$3.5B
+27.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.05
+20.9% YoY
FY2
$3.88
+27.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$347M
FCF Margin: 16.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
AGI beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
AGI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2016
Total disclosed revenue $971M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Global Customer Engagement
39.8%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
79.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Global Customer Engagement is the largest disclosed segment at 39.8% of FY 2016 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 79.5%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
AGI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $34 — implies -12.7% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
12.7%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
AGI
18.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
26% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
AGI
18.5x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
17% discount
vs AGI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.5x
vs
5Y Average
45.6x
59% discount
Forward PE
13.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-28%
Basic Materials
15.2x
-10%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-26%
Basic Materials
22.3x
-17%
5Y Avg
45.6x
-59%
PEG Ratio
0.45x
S&P 500
1.72x
-74%
Basic Materials
1.17x
-62%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.6x
S&P 500
15.2x
+2%
Basic Materials
11.0x
+42%
5Y Avg
12.9x
+21%
Price/FCF
60.2x
S&P 500
21.1x
+186%
Basic Materials
25.6x
+135%
5Y Avg
45.2x
+33%
Price/Sales
9.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
+188%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+376%
5Y Avg
5.7x
+59%
Dividend Yield
0.24%
S&P 500
1.87%
-87%
Basic Materials
1.32%
-82%
5Y Avg
0.68%
-64%
| Metric | AGI | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg AGI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.7x | 19.1x-28% | 15.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.5x | 25.1x-26% | 22.3x-17% | 45.6x-59% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.45x | 1.72x-74% | 1.17x-62% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.6x | 15.2x | 11.0x+42% | 12.9x+21% |
| Price/FCF | 60.2x | 21.1x+186% | 25.6x+135% | 45.2x+33% |
| Price/Sales | 9.0x | 3.1x+188% | 1.9x+376% | 5.7x+59% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.24% | 1.87% | 1.32% | 0.68% |
AGI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolAGI Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
AGI generates $347M in free cash flow at a 16.8% margin — 15.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+47.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
59.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
54.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
51.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.52
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$347M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
16.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
15.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
17.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$622M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$388M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
25.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.5%
Dividend
0.2%
Buyback
0.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$39M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.10
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
4.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
420M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageAGI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Production Costs and Mine Operations
There is a significant risk of anticipated increases in aggregate costs, particularly driven by higher production expenses at the Magino mine. Short-term cost pressures could materially impact profitability and operational efficiency.
High Risk
Limited Diversification
Alamos Gold operates only three producing mines, making it vulnerable to unforeseen shutdowns at any single site. Such an event could materially affect the company's overall production and financial results.
High Risk
Gold Price Volatility
AGI's share price is strongly correlated with gold prices, meaning a sudden decline in gold prices could significantly impact the company's expected cash flow growth and its share buyback program.
Medium
Valuation Concerns
Some analyses suggest AGI is undervalued, while others indicate a rich valuation based on metrics like the Price to Operating Cash Flow (P/CF) ratio, which exceeds historical sector peaks. This discrepancy raises concerns about the sustainability of its valuation.
Medium
Short-Term Technical Trends
The short-term trend for AGI is currently negative, with the stock price trading below declining 20 and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs). This trend may deter potential investors and affect market sentiment.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why AGI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Production Growth
Alamos Gold is expected to see increased production due to the completion of projects like La Yaqui Grande and the inclusion of the Magino Mine. FY24 guidance reflects a 13% rise in production, with anticipated boosts of 22% and 21% in FY25 and FY26, respectively.
Gold Prices
The company is well-positioned to benefit from record or high gold prices, which have a strong positive correlation with AGI's stock performance.
Operational Improvements and Cost Savings
The company anticipates significant operating savings, estimated at approximately $375 million over the lifespan of a mine, driven by lower processing costs and reduced general and administrative expenses.
Shareholder Returns
Alamos Gold is increasing shareholder returns through dividends and expanded share buybacks, leveraging higher gold prices and improved operational performance.
Technical Strength
Some analyses indicate a strong technical setup, with the stock showing a technical breakout shape and a sustained uptrend in both short and long terms. It has also shown strong performance compared to the wider market.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
AGI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$38.88
52W Range Position
48%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$23.75
+63.7% from the low
52-Week High
$55.41
-29.8% from the high
1 Month
-16.04%
3 Month
+3.21%
YTD
+1.2%
1 Year
+51.3%
3Y CAGR
+41.2%
5Y CAGR
+35.9%
10Y CAGR
+19.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
AGI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.7x
vs 7.1x median
+94% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+31.8%
vs +35.0% median
-9% below peer median
Net Margin
51.4%
vs 27.6% median
+86% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AGI AGI Alamos Gold Inc. | $16.3B | 13.7x | +31.8% | 51.4% | Buy | +40.2% |
EGO EGO Eldorado Gold Corporation | $5.8B | 6.9x | +35.8% | 28.0% | Hold | +79.6% |
IAG IAG IAMGOLD Corporation | $9.6B | 6.8x | +49.2% | 23.4% | Buy | +81.3% |
AU AU AngloGold Ashanti Plc | $45.9B | 8.4x | +35.0% | 27.6% | Buy | +46.2% |
AEM AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | $89.2B | 12.8x | +31.7% | 37.5% | Buy | +33.4% |
GFI GFI Gold Fields Limited | $37.4B | 7.1x | +13.2% | 23.2% | Hold | +30.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
AGI Dividend and Capital Return
AGI returns 0.5% total yield, led by a 0.24% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.2%
Dividend Yield
0.24%
Payout Ratio
4.5%
How AGI Splits Its Return
Div 0.24%
Buyback 0.2%
Dividend 0.24%Buybacks 0.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.10
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
0.0%
5Y Div CAGR
9.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$39M
Estimated Shares Retired
1M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
420M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.04 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.10 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| 2024 | $0.10 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 2023 | $0.10 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% |
| 2022 | $0.10 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsAGI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 13 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $55, implying +40.2% from the current price of $39.
02What is the AGI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for AGI is $55 based on 13 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $60 (+54.3% from today), and the low-end target is $49 (+26.0%). The base case model target is $72.
03Is Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) stock overvalued in 2026?
AGI trades at 13.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for AGI in 2026 are: (1) Production Costs and Mine Operations — There is a significant risk of anticipated increases in aggregate costs, particularly driven by higher production expenses at the Magino mine. (2) Limited Diversification — Alamos Gold operates only three producing mines, making it vulnerable to unforeseen shutdowns at any single site. (3) Gold Price Volatility — AGI's share price is strongly correlated with gold prices, meaning a sudden decline in gold prices could significantly impact the company's expected cash flow growth and its share buyback program. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Alamos Gold Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates AGI will report consensus revenue of $2.7B (+31.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.05 (+20.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.5B in revenue.
06When does Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for AGI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Alamos Gold Inc. generate?
Alamos Gold Inc. (AGI) generated $347M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 16.8%. AGI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.2% yield) and share repurchases ($39M TTM).