Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing IAG more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
IAMGOLD Corporation (IAG) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
11 bullish · 7 bearish · 29 covering IAG
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
11
Sell
7
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$30
+81.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$823 – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
6.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.6B
IAG price targets
Three scenarios for where IAG stock could go
Current
~$16
Confidence
35 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $16
Bear
$823
Base
$42
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$42+156.2%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$823+4958.7%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push IAG down roughly 4959% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
IAMGOLD Corporation
IAG · NYSEBasic MaterialsGoldDecember year-end
IAMGOLD is a mid-tier gold mining company that explores, develops, and operates gold mines primarily in the Americas and West Africa. It generates revenue almost entirely from gold sales — with its Essakane mine in Burkina Faso and Rosebel mine in Suriname being the main production assets — and supplements this with small amounts of silver by-product revenue. The company's competitive position rests on its geographically diversified portfolio of operating mines and development projects, though it faces the typical mining industry challenges of political risk in some jurisdictions and capital intensity.
Market Cap
$9.6B
Revenue TTM
$2.9B
Net Income TTM
$671M
Net Margin
23.4%
IAG Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+71.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.10/$0.10
Revenue
$477M/$508M
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.13/$0.14
Revenue
$581M/$730M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.30/$0.21
Revenue
$707M/$959M
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.70/$0.55
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.10/$0.10 | +0.0% | $477M/$508M | -6.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.13/$0.14 | -7.1% | $581M/$730M | -20.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.30/$0.21 | +42.9% | $707M/$959M | -26.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.70/$0.55 | +27.3% | $1.1B/$1.0B | +3.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.3B
+49.2% YoY
FY2
$6.1B
+41.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.03
+75.8% YoY
FY2
$2.97
+46.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$825M
FCF Margin: 28.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
IAG beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
IAG Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $27 — implies +65.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
65.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
IAG
14.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
44% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
IAG
14.0x
vs
Basic Materials
22.3x
37% discount
vs IAG 5Y Avg P/E
Today
14.0x
vs
5Y Average
10.3x
+36% premium
Forward PE
6.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-64%
Basic Materials
15.2x
-55%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
14.0x
S&P 500
25.1x
-44%
Basic Materials
22.3x
-37%
5Y Avg
10.3x
+36%
PEG Ratio
0.21x
S&P 500
1.72x
-88%
Basic Materials
1.17x
-82%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
6.4x
S&P 500
15.2x
-58%
Basic Materials
11.0x
-42%
5Y Avg
6.5x
-2%
Price/FCF
12.4x
S&P 500
21.1x
-41%
Basic Materials
25.6x
-52%
5Y Avg
12.4x
-0%
Price/Sales
3.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+6%
Basic Materials
1.9x
+74%
5Y Avg
1.9x
+78%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Basic Materials
1.32%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | IAG | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg IAG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 6.8x | 19.1x-64% | 15.2x-55% | — |
| Trailing PE | 14.0x | 25.1x-44% | 22.3x-37% | 10.3x+36% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.21x | 1.72x-88% | 1.17x-82% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.4x | 15.2x-58% | 11.0x-42% | 6.5x |
| Price/FCF | 12.4x | 21.1x-41% | 25.6x-52% | 12.4x |
| Price/Sales | 3.3x | 3.1x | 1.9x+74% | 1.9x+78% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.32% | — |
IAG trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolIAG Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
IAG generates $825M in free cash flow at a 28.8% margin — 19.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.9B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+75.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
42.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
38.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
23.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.15
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$825M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
28.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
19.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
12.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$421M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$419M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.5× FCF
~0.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
18.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.5%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.5%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$51M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
589M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageIAG Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Economic Uncertainties
Fluctuations in the global economy can significantly impact travel demand, which in turn affects airline profitability. A downturn in economic conditions could lead to a substantial decline in passenger numbers, severely impacting revenue.
High Risk
Geopolitical Tensions
Conflicts and instability in various regions can deter travel and create uncertainty in demand, particularly for affected routes. This can lead to a significant drop in bookings and revenue for airlines operating in or near conflict zones.
High Risk
Fuel Price Volatility
Rising fuel prices are a major concern for airlines, as they directly increase operating costs. A sustained increase in fuel prices could severely impact profit margins and overall financial performance.
Medium
Supply Chain Issues
Delays in aircraft deliveries, shortages of parts, and a lack of staff across the aviation network can lead to increased operational expenses and capacity constraints. These issues can hinder the ability to meet demand and affect profitability.
Medium
Environmental Regulations
The airline industry faces pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, leading to costs associated with complying with regulations like the EU's Emissions Trading System (ETS). Non-compliance could result in significant fines and increased operational costs.
Medium
Business Travel Dependence
IAG's significant exposure to business travel could pressure margins if this segment does not fully recover to pre-pandemic levels. A slow recovery in business travel could lead to lower revenues and profitability.
Lower
Brexit-Related Issues
The complexities of operating in a post-Brexit environment have resulted in increased regulatory and operational costs for IAG. These additional costs could impact overall profitability but are not expected to be as severe as other risks.
Lower
Health and Safety Risks
The airline industry's performance is correlated with health and safety risks, as demonstrated by the impact of the pandemic. Ongoing health concerns could affect travel demand and operational capacity.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why IAG Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Undervaluation and Discounted Price
IAG is trading at a discount compared to its historical average, with a forward P/E of 7.2 versus a historical average of 9.1. It's considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range, and Morningstar has raised its fair value estimate for the stock, suggesting it remains undervalued.
Strong Recent Performance
The company has shown significant earnings growth, with a 362.0% year-over-year increase. Revenue has also seen substantial growth, up 131.6% year-over-year, and IAG delivered a record year in 2025, with revenue rising 3.5% and operating margin at the upper end of its target.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
A significant number of Wall Street analysts have a 'Buy' or 'Strong Buy' recommendation for IAG. The average 12-month price target from analysts suggests considerable upside potential, with targets ranging from 450 GBX to 630 GBX, representing a potential upside of 24.3% to 65.6% from current price levels.
Growth Potential and Strategic Investments
IAG's targeted business mix and organic capital generation potential are expected to drive long-term recovery and growth. A step-up in capital expenditure through 2031 is planned for fleet renewal, which could improve capacity relative to weaker competitors.
Market Expectations vs. Reality
The market appears to be pricing in an annual earnings decline, which contrasts with the company's recent strong earnings growth. If the company can maintain stability, this could indicate potential undervaluation.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
IAG Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$16.27
52W Range Position
54%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$6.06
+168.6% from the low
52-Week High
$24.87
-34.6% from the high
1 Month
-14.21%
3 Month
-9.48%
YTD
+0.3%
1 Year
+133.8%
3Y CAGR
+71.3%
5Y CAGR
+38.9%
10Y CAGR
+17.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
IAG vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
6.8x
vs 9.2x median
-26% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+49.2%
vs +32.9% median
+49% above peer median
Net Margin
23.4%
vs 28.0% median
-17% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
IAG IAG IAMGOLD Corporation | $9.6B | 6.8x | +49.2% | 23.4% | Buy | +81.3% |
EGO EGO Eldorado Gold Corporation | $5.8B | 6.9x | +35.8% | 28.0% | Hold | +79.6% |
CDE CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. | $11.0B | 8.6x | +66.3% | 24.0% | Buy | +69.3% |
PAA PAAS Pan American Silver Corp. | $21.3B | 10.8x | +32.9% | 27.1% | Buy | +48.5% |
HL HL Hecla Mining Company | $11.4B | 18.0x | +32.0% | 35.6% | Hold | +39.8% |
KGC KGC Kinross Gold Corporation | $34.5B | 9.2x | +29.7% | 36.0% | Buy | +46.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
IAG Dividend and Capital Return
IAG returns 0.5% annually — null% through dividends and 0.5% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.5%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.5%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$51M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.5%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
589M
At 0.5%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | $0.13 | -50.0% | 0.0% | 8.2% |
| 2012 | $0.25 | +11.1% | 0.0% | 2.5% |
| 2011 | $0.23 | +181.3% | 0.0% | 1.3% |
| 2010 | $0.08 | +33.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 2009 | $0.06 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsIAG Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is IAMGOLD Corporation (IAG) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
IAMGOLD Corporation (IAG) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 11 rate it Hold, and 7 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $30, implying +81.3% from the current price of $16.
02What is the IAG stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for IAG is $30 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $34 (+108.9% from today), and the low-end target is $25 (+53.6%). The base case model target is $42.
03Is IAMGOLD Corporation (IAG) stock overvalued in 2026?
IAG trades at 6.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for IAMGOLD Corporation (IAG) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for IAG in 2026 are: (1) Economic Uncertainties — Fluctuations in the global economy can significantly impact travel demand, which in turn affects airline profitability. (2) Geopolitical Tensions — Conflicts and instability in various regions can deter travel and create uncertainty in demand, particularly for affected routes. (3) Fuel Price Volatility — Rising fuel prices are a major concern for airlines, as they directly increase operating costs. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is IAMGOLD Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates IAG will report consensus revenue of $4.3B (+49.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.03 (+75.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.1B in revenue.
06When does IAMGOLD Corporation (IAG) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for IAG is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does IAMGOLD Corporation generate?
IAMGOLD Corporation (IAG) generated $825M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 28.8%. IAG returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($51M TTM).