AMBP trades 5.3% below Wall Street's consensus target of $4.97.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes AMBP achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 18.0x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 6 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of November 8, 2026, Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $4.97, based on estimates from 6 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $4.72, this represents a potential upside of +5.3%. The company has a market capitalization of $2.82B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $4.75 to a high of $5.20, representing a 9% spread in expectations. The median target of $4.97 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 1 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,4 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The bearish sentiment suggests caution about the stock at current levels.
From a valuation perspective, AMBP trades at a trailing P/E of 48.7x and forward P/E of 18.0x. Analysts expect EPS to grow +170.4% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $1.26, with bear and bull scenarios of $0.80 and $1.66 respectively. Model confidence stands at 54/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BALLBall Corporation | $17.6B | $65.92 | $71.50 | +8.5% | Buy | 16.4x | 23 |
 CCKCrown Holdings, Inc. | $13.6B | $121.30 | $125.50 | +3.5% | Buy | 14.4x | 25 |
 ATIATI Inc. | $24.0B | $175.79 | $257.50 | +46.5% | Buy | 33.9x | 31 |
 SLGNSilgan Holdings Inc. | $4.3B | $41.09 | $49.67 | +20.9% | Buy | 10.6x | 21 |
 SONSonoco Products Company | $5.0B | $50.43 | $57.00 | +13.0% | Hold | 9.3x | 21 |
 PKGPackaging Corporation of America | $22.2B | $249.70 | $281.17 | +12.6% | Hold | 23.5x | 26 |
 IPInternational Paper Company | $18.3B | $34.53 | $47.00 | +36.1% | Buy | 32.4x | 29 |
 GPKGraphic Packaging Holding Company | $3.3B | $11.19 | $9.13 | -18.4% | Buy | 16.9x | 27 |
 AAAlcoa Corporation | $10.4B | $39.54 | $60.43 | +52.8% | Buy | 5.7x | 42 |
 CENXCentury Aluminum Company | $3.3B | $33.47 | $58.00 | +73.3% | Hold | 3.3x | 23 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying AMBP stock.
The consensus price target for AMBP is $4.97, close to the current price of $4.72 (5.3% implied move). Based on 6 analyst estimates, the stock appears fairly valued near current levels.
AMBP has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 6 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 4 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $4.97 implies 5.3% upside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 17.9947x, AMBP trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $4.97 implies 5.3% appreciation, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $5.2 for AMBP, while the most conservative target is $4.75. The consensus of $4.97 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $2 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
AMBP is moderately covered, with 6 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 1 have Buy ratings, 4 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month AMBP stock forecast based on 6 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $4.97, with estimates ranging from $4.75 (bear case) to $5.2 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $1, with bear/bull scenarios of $1/$2.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates AMBP's fair value at $1 (base case), with a bear case of $1 and bull case of $2. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 54/100.
AMBP trades at a forward P/E ratio of 18.0x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 48.7x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
AMBP appears fairly valued according to analysts, with a "Hold" rating and minimal upside to the $4.97 target. Consider your investment thesis and risk tolerance. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
AMBP analyst price targets range from $4.75 to $5.2, a 9% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $4.97 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $1-$2 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
Live VCP patterns, Cup & Handle overlays, support/resistance, and AI trade plans.
High-probability breakout stocks crossing their pivot across 5 pattern engines.
DCF models, multiple analysis, and analyst estimates.
10-year return with dividends reinvested.
Compare growth, multiples, and margins vs sector.