Upside case
Bull case
$530+300.2%
BK would need investors to value it at roughly 60x earnings — about 45x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
35
analysts
18 bullish · 0 bearish · 35 covering BK
Strong Buy
1
Buy
17
Hold
17
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$140
+5.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$132 – $530
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $91.1B
BK price targets
Three scenarios for where BK stock could go
Current
~$132
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $132
Bear
$132
Base
$235
Bull
$530
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$235+77.7%
At 27x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$132-0.6%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 0x multiple contraction could push BK down roughly 1% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation
BK · NYSEFinancial ServicesAsset ManagementDecember year-end
BNY Mellon is a global financial services company that provides custody, asset servicing, and investment management services to institutional clients. It generates revenue primarily through asset servicing fees (custody, accounting, administration) and investment management fees, with securities services contributing roughly 60% of revenue and investment management around 30%. The company's key advantage is its massive scale as one of the world's largest custodians—with over $45 trillion in assets under custody—creating significant network effects and high switching costs for clients.
Market Cap
$91.1B
Net Income TTM
$5.2B
BK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
82%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q4 2025
EPS
$1.91/$1.76
Revenue
$10.4B/$5.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.02/$1.91
Revenue
$5.2B/$5.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.72/$1.95
Revenue
$8.9B/—
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.25/$1.96
Revenue
$5.4B/$5.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | $1.91/$1.76 | +8.5% | $10.4B/$5.0B | +108.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.02/$1.91 | +5.8% | $5.2B/$5.1B | +0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.72/$1.95 | -11.8% | $8.9B/— | — |
| Q2 2026 | $2.25/$1.96 | +14.8% | $5.4B/$5.2B | +4.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$38.9B
-1.8% YoY
FY2
$46.5B
+19.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$8.79
+18.2% YoY
FY2
$10.31
+17.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.6B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BK beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
BK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $12.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Financial Service
73.9%
+10.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
64.8%
+15.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Financial Service is the largest disclosed segment at 73.9% of FY 2024 revenue, up 10.1% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 64.8%, up 15.0% YoY.
BK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $91 — implies -32.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
32.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BK
22.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
9% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
BK
22.8x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
+71% premium
vs BK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
22.8x
vs
5Y Average
13.5x
+69% premium
Forward PE
15.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-21%
Financial Services
10.4x
+45%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
22.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
-9%
Financial Services
13.3x
+71%
5Y Avg
13.5x
+69%
PEG Ratio
4.42x
S&P 500
1.72x
+158%
Financial Services
1.01x
+337%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
4.5x
S&P 500
15.2x
-70%
Financial Services
11.4x
-60%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+3418%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
13.0x
—
Price/Sales
2.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-26%
Financial Services
2.2x
+3%
5Y Avg
2.0x
+16%
Dividend Yield
1.36%
S&P 500
1.87%
-27%
Financial Services
2.70%
-50%
5Y Avg
2.76%
-51%
| Metric | BK | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg BK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.1x | 19.1x-21% | 10.4x+45% | — |
| Trailing PE | 22.8x | 25.1x | 13.3x+71% | 13.5x+69% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.42x | 1.72x+158% | 1.01x+337% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.5x | 15.2x-70% | 11.4x-60% | 0.1x+3418% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 10.6x | 13.0x |
| Price/Sales | 2.3x | 3.1x-26% | 2.2x | 2.0x+16% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.36% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 2.76% |
BK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBK Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
BK generates 11.8% ROE and 1.2% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$7.44
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
11.8%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$101.9B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$56.5B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
11.8%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.7%
Dividend
1.4%
Buyback
3.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.1B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.80
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
29.8%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
748M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageBK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Interest Rate Impact on NIM
Elevated short‑term rates could erode Bank of New York Mellon’s net interest margin if funding costs rise faster than longer‑term income. The firm’s fee‑driven business model offers some mitigation, but a sustained rate hike could still compress profitability.
High Risk
Profitability vs Peers
BK’s Return on Assets (0.30%) and Return on Equity (3.22%) are well below industry averages, and its profit margin of 7.11% is also low. While earnings and cash flow from operations have been positive for five years, the weak profitability metrics signal potential pressure on future margins.
Medium
Regulatory Pressure
Potential regulatory headwinds could increase compliance costs and limit growth opportunities. Such regulatory changes may affect BK’s capital requirements and operational flexibility.
Medium
Fixed Income & Equity Market Decline
A downturn in fixed‑income and equity markets could reduce capital market activity, negatively impacting revenue streams from asset servicing and investment management.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
International Expansion Momentum
Burger King’s international business has accelerated comparable sales growth in Europe and Asia, and RBI is pursuing a joint venture in China to speed expansion. This international strength is a significant contributor to RBI’s overall revenue and is expected to continue supporting growth.
Unit Growth >5%
RBI projects unit growth to exceed 5%, driven by accelerated openings internationally and improvements in various global markets. The company’s consistent performance and market share gains across its brands underpin this growth outlook.
Operational Efficiency via AI
RBI is rolling out “BK Assist,” an AI‑driven real‑time coaching tool for U.S. stores, expected to improve EBITDA. The company also focuses on promotions and brand collaborations to attract family traffic.
Franchising Shift to 99%
RBI is simplifying its structure by transitioning to a predominantly franchised model, aiming for 99% franchised by 2028. Refranchising a significant portion of company‑owned U.S. stores is expected to reduce operational complexity and drive growth.
Brand Portfolio Diversification
RBI owns Burger King, Tim Hortons, and Popeyes, allowing it to capture a larger share of the quick‑service restaurant market and mitigate risks. The well‑recognized brands provide competitive advantages across diverse market segments.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$132.36
52W Range Position
88%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$81.12
+63.2% from the low
52-Week High
$139.15
-4.9% from the high
1 Month
+7.06%
3 Month
+9.83%
YTD
+13.1%
1 Year
+61.1%
3Y CAGR
+47.6%
5Y CAGR
+20.8%
10Y CAGR
+12.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.1x
vs 11.3x median
+34% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-1.8%
vs -0.6% median
-219% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BK BK The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | $91.1B | 15.1x | -1.8% | — | Buy | +5.7% |
STT STT State Street Corporation | $42.0B | 12.0x | +2.8% | — | Buy | +7.9% |
NTR NTRS Northern Trust Corporation | $29.9B | 14.9x | -20.3% | — | Hold | -4.9% |
BEN BEN Franklin Resources, Inc. | $15.8B | 11.2x | -1.3% | — | Hold | -5.6% |
IVZ IVZ Invesco Ltd. | $11.9B | 10.4x | -0.6% | — | Hold | +10.8% |
TRO TROW T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | $22.7B | 11.3x | +2.9% | — | Hold | -2.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BK Dividend and Capital Return
BK returns capital mainly through $3.1B/year in buybacks (3.4% buyback yield), with a modest 1.36% dividend — combining for 4.7% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 15 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
4.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.4%
Dividend Yield
1.36%
Payout Ratio
29.8%
How BK Splits Its Return
Div 1.36%
Buyback 3.4%
Dividend 1.36%Buybacks 3.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.80
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
15Y
3Y Div CAGR
12.1%
5Y Div CAGR
10.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.1B
Estimated Shares Retired
23M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
748M
At 3.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.06 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.00 | +12.4% | — | — |
| 2024 | $1.78 | +12.7% | 5.3% | 7.7% |
| 2023 | $1.58 | +11.3% | 7.6% | 10.6% |
| 2022 | $1.42 | +9.2% | 0.3% | 3.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsBK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 18 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $140, implying +5.7% from the current price of $132. The bear case scenario is $132 and the bull case is $530.
02What is the BK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for BK is $140 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $149 (+12.6% from today), and the low-end target is $122 (-7.8%). The base case model target is $235.
03Is The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) stock overvalued in 2026?
BK trades at 15.1x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BK in 2026 are: (1) Interest Rate Impact on NIM — Elevated short‑term rates could erode Bank of New York Mellon’s net interest margin if funding costs rise faster than longer‑term income. (2) Profitability vs Peers — BK’s Return on Assets (0. (3) Regulatory Pressure — Potential regulatory headwinds could increase compliance costs and limit growth opportunities. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BK will report consensus revenue of $38.9B (-1.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $8.79 (+18.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $46.5B in revenue.
06When does The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BK is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation generate?
The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (BK) generated $1.6B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. BK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.4% yield) and share repurchases ($3.1B TTM).