Upside case
Bull case
$565+246.2%
NTRS would need investors to value it at roughly 52x earnings — about 37x more generous than today's 15x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
35
analysts
13 bullish · 5 bearish · 35 covering NTRS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
17
Sell
5
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$154
-5.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$139 – $565
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
15.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $30.3B
NTRS price targets
Three scenarios for where NTRS stock could go
Current
~$163
Confidence
58 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $163
Bear
$139
Base
$186
Bull
$565
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$186+13.8%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$139-14.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push NTRS down roughly 15% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Northern Trust Corporation
NTRS · NASDAQFinancial ServicesAsset ManagementDecember year-end
Northern Trust is a financial services firm specializing in asset servicing and wealth management for institutional investors and affluent clients. It generates revenue primarily through asset servicing fees (approximately 60% of total revenue) and wealth management fees (around 30%), with the remainder coming from net interest income. The company's moat lies in its long-standing institutional relationships, complex custody and administration capabilities, and reputation as a trusted fiduciary for large, sophisticated clients.
Market Cap
$30.3B
Net Income TTM
$1.7B
NTRS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.5%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.13/$2.06
Revenue
$3.6B/$2.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.29/$2.26
Revenue
$3.6B/$2.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.69/$2.37
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.71/$2.37
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.13/$2.06 | +3.4% | $3.6B/$2.0B | +83.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.29/$2.26 | +1.3% | $3.6B/$2.0B | +76.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.69/$2.37 | +13.5% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +3.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.71/$2.37 | +14.3% | $2.2B/$2.1B | +4.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.4B
-20.3% YoY
FY2
$10.9B
-4.5% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$10.27
+11.5% YoY
FY2
$9.95
-3.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$4.7B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
NTRS beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
NTRS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $8.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Corporate and Institutional Service
58.5%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Domestic Country
69.9%
-6.5% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Corporate and Institutional Service is the largest disclosed segment at 58.5% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
Domestic Country is the largest reported region at 69.9%, down 6.5% YoY.
NTRS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $148 — implies -10.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
10.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NTRS
18.7x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
26% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
NTRS
18.7x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+40% premium
vs NTRS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
18.7x
vs
5Y Average
14.8x
+26% premium
Forward PE
15.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
-21%
Financial Services
10.5x
+44%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
18.7x
S&P 500
25.2x
-26%
Financial Services
13.4x
+40%
5Y Avg
14.8x
+26%
PEG Ratio
1.89x
S&P 500
1.75x
+8%
Financial Services
1.03x
+85%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
-4.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
-129%
Financial Services
11.4x
-139%
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
5.5x
S&P 500
21.3x
-74%
Financial Services
10.6x
-48%
5Y Avg
13.6x
-59%
Price/Sales
2.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-32%
Financial Services
2.3x
-6%
5Y Avg
2.2x
-2%
Dividend Yield
1.92%
S&P 500
1.88%
+2%
Financial Services
2.68%
-28%
5Y Avg
3.03%
-37%
| Metric | NTRS | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg NTRS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 15.1x | 19.1x-21% | 10.5x+44% | — |
| Trailing PE | 18.7x | 25.2x-26% | 13.4x+40% | 14.8x+26% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.89x | 1.75x | 1.03x+85% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | -4.5x | 15.3x-129% | 11.4x-139% | — |
| Price/FCF | 5.5x | 21.3x-74% | 10.6x-48% | 13.6x-59% |
| Price/Sales | 2.1x | 3.1x-32% | 2.3x | 2.2x |
| Dividend Yield | 1.92% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 3.03% |
NTRS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNTRS Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
NTRS generates 13.4% ROE and 1.0% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$9.21
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
13.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$61.1B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$44.7B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
13.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.1%
Dividend
1.9%
Buyback
4.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.14
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
34.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
185M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageNTRS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Economic Downturn & Inflation
A macro‑economic slowdown combined with persistent inflation and policy uncertainty could erode credit quality and squeeze Northern Trust’s profitability. Historical downturns have led to higher default rates and lower fee income for the firm.
High Risk
Declining Net Interest Income & Wealth Fees
NII fell in the latest quarter as deposit levels dipped, and wealth‑management fee rates are under pressure from fee‑compression trends. These revenue streams constitute a large portion of the company’s earnings, so sustained declines could materially reduce net income.
Medium
Interest Rate & Market Volatility
Fluctuations in interest rates affect bond pricing and the valuation of the firm’s investment portfolio, while broader market volatility can depress share price. Although a longer investment horizon mitigates some risk, sudden rate hikes could compress returns.
Medium
Credit Risk on Bond Holdings
Northern Trust’s bond portfolio is exposed to issuer default risk, especially in a tightening credit environment. Defaults would reduce portfolio value and could trigger regulatory capital adjustments.
Medium
Concentration & Diversification Risk
The firm’s investment and client portfolios may be concentrated in a limited number of sectors or issuers, amplifying volatility. Lack of diversification could magnify losses during sector‑specific downturns.
Lower
Regulatory Scrutiny of Stock Buybacks
Recent share repurchases, some of which were unregistered, may attract regulatory attention and affect capital allocation. Potential fines or restrictions could limit future buyback activity.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NTRS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Q4 2025 Earnings Beat
Northern Trust posted net income of $466 million and adjusted EPS of $2.69 in Q4 2025, exceeding analyst expectations. The performance was driven by a sharp rise in fee‑based revenue amid a sustained global market rally.
Wealth Management Shift & Higher Margins
The company’s wealth management arm now enjoys higher pretax margins than asset servicing. Northern Trust is expanding through Family Office Solutions, targeting ultra‑high‑net‑worth clients for additional growth.
Technology Payback & Operational Leverage
Significant technology investments made over the past three years are entering a payback phase, improving operational leverage. Expense‑to‑trust fee ratios are declining, with guidance for low‑ to mid‑single‑digit fee growth versus less than 5% expense growth in 2026.
Robust Capital & Shareholder Returns
A new $2.5 billion buyback program has been authorized, reinforcing financial flexibility. Northern Trust’s CET1 ratio is well above regulatory and internal targets, supporting elevated capital returns.
New Business Wins & Asset Growth
The firm secured a $40 billion middle‑office outsourcing mandate across institutional equity portfolios, boosting its operational reach. Record AUM growth has come from wins in institutional and ultra‑high‑net‑worth segments.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NTRS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$163.28
52W Range Position
87%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$96.28
+69.6% from the low
52-Week High
$173.19
-5.7% from the high
1 Month
+13.93%
3 Month
+7.32%
YTD
+17.2%
1 Year
+68.5%
3Y CAGR
+30.8%
5Y CAGR
+6.6%
10Y CAGR
+9.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NTRS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
15.1x
vs 11.5x median
+31% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-20.3%
vs -0.6% median
-3566% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NTR NTRS Northern Trust Corporation | $30.3B | 15.1x | -20.3% | — | Hold | -5.8% |
STT STT State Street Corporation | $42.7B | 12.2x | +2.8% | — | Buy | +6.1% |
BK BK The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | $92.0B | 15.3x | -1.8% | — | Buy | +4.7% |
TRO TROW T. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | $23.1B | 11.5x | +2.9% | — | Hold | -4.6% |
BEN BEN Franklin Resources, Inc. | $16.2B | 11.4x | -1.3% | — | Hold | -7.7% |
IVZ IVZ Invesco Ltd. | $12.2B | 10.6x | -0.6% | — | Hold | +8.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NTRS Dividend and Capital Return
NTRS returns capital mainly through $1.3B/year in buybacks (4.3% buyback yield), with a modest 1.94% dividend — combining for 6.2% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
4.3%
Dividend Yield
1.94%
Payout Ratio
34.1%
How NTRS Splits Its Return
Div 1.94%
Buyback 4.3%
Dividend 1.94%Buybacks 4.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.14
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
2.2%
5Y Div CAGR
2.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
8M
Approx. Share Reduction
4.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
185M
At 4.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.60 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.10 | +3.3% | 4.9% | 7.2% |
| 2024 | $3.00 | 0.0% | 4.5% | 7.4% |
| 2023 | $3.00 | +3.4% | 2.0% | 5.5% |
| 2022 | $2.90 | +3.6% | 0.2% | 4.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsNTRS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 17 rate it Hold, and 5 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $154, implying -5.8% from the current price of $163. The bear case scenario is $139 and the bull case is $565.
02What is the NTRS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NTRS is $154 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $160 (-2.0% from today), and the low-end target is $148 (-9.4%). The base case model target is $186.
03Is Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) stock overvalued in 2026?
NTRS trades at 15.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NTRS in 2026 are: (1) Economic Downturn & Inflation — A macro‑economic slowdown combined with persistent inflation and policy uncertainty could erode credit quality and squeeze Northern Trust’s profitability. (2) Declining Net Interest Income & Wealth Fees — NII fell in the latest quarter as deposit levels dipped, and wealth‑management fee rates are under pressure from fee‑compression trends. (3) Interest Rate & Market Volatility — Fluctuations in interest rates affect bond pricing and the valuation of the firm’s investment portfolio, while broader market volatility can depress share price. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Northern Trust Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NTRS will report consensus revenue of $11.4B (-20.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $10.27 (+11.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.9B in revenue.
06When does Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for NTRS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Northern Trust Corporation generate?
Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) generated $4.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. NTRS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.9% yield) and share repurchases ($1.3B TTM).