Upside case
Bull case
$1142+494.2%
MOH would need investors to value it at roughly 221x earnings — about 184x more generous than today's 37x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
38
analysts
17 bullish · 6 bearish · 38 covering MOH
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
15
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$166
-13.6% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $1142
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
38
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
37.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.0B
MOH price targets
Three scenarios for where MOH stock could go
Current
~$192
Confidence
56 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $192
Base
$287
Bull
$1142
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$287+49.3%
At 56x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Molina Healthcare, Inc.
MOH · NYSEHealthcareMedical - Healthcare PlansDecember year-end
Molina Healthcare is a managed care organization that provides health insurance to low-income families and individuals through government-sponsored programs. It generates revenue primarily from Medicaid premiums (roughly 80% of revenue), Medicare Advantage plans, and Marketplace exchange plans — receiving capitated payments from government agencies for each member enrolled. The company's moat lies in its specialized expertise serving the complex Medicaid population and its established state-level contracts that create significant regulatory and operational barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$10.0B
Revenue TTM
$45.1B
Net Income TTM
$188M
Net Margin
0.4%
MOH Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-60.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$5.48/$5.62
Revenue
$11.4B/$11.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.84/$3.97
Revenue
$11.5B/$11.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$-2.75/$0.43
Revenue
$11.4B/$10.9B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.35/$1.57
Revenue
$10.8B/$10.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $5.48/$5.62 | -2.5% | $11.4B/$11.0B | +4.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.84/$3.97 | -53.7% | $11.5B/$11.3B | +1.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $-2.75/$0.43 | -739.5% | $11.4B/$10.9B | +4.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.35/$1.57 | +49.7% | $10.8B/$10.9B | -0.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$48.8B
+8.2% YoY
FY2
$55.0B
+12.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.80
+111.5% YoY
FY2
$13.32
+70.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$251M
FCF Margin: 0.6%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
MOH beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
MOH Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $43.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Medicaid Solutions Segment
74.7%
+5.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Medicaid Solutions Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 74.7% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.4% YoY.
MOH Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $232 — implies +20.3% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
20.3%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
MOH
21.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
14% discount
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
MOH
21.5x
vs
Healthcare
22.2x
In line with benchmark
vs MOH 5Y Avg P/E
Today
21.5x
vs
5Y Average
21.1x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
37.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
+95%
Healthcare
18.8x
+98%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
21.5x
S&P 500
25.1x
-14%
Healthcare
22.2x
-3%
5Y Avg
21.1x
+2%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Healthcare
1.53x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
10.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
-35%
Healthcare
14.0x
-29%
5Y Avg
11.0x
-9%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Healthcare
18.6x
—
5Y Avg
20.4x
—
Price/Sales
0.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-93%
Healthcare
2.8x
-92%
5Y Avg
0.5x
-56%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Healthcare
1.42%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | MOH | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg MOH |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 37.3x | 19.1x+95% | 18.8x+98% | — |
| Trailing PE | 21.5x | 25.1x-14% | 22.2x | 21.1x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.53x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.0x | 15.2x-35% | 14.0x-29% | 11.0x |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 18.6x | 20.4x |
| Price/Sales | 0.2x | 3.1x-93% | 2.8x-92% | 0.5x-56% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.42% | — |
MOH trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolMOH Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
MOH posts 0.4% net margin with 4.4% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$45.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
1.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
0.4%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.69
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
4.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
17.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.2B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$298M
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
10.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
10.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
52M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageMOH Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Guidance Cuts and Lawsuits
A significant risk factor stems from a mid-2025 guidance cut, where the company reduced its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS outlook due to a higher-than-expected medical cost trend. This led to a securities fraud class action lawsuit against the company.
High Risk
Medical Cost Trends
Rising medical costs, particularly within its Marketplace business segment, are a concern. The consolidated Medical Care Ratio (MCR) increased in Q3 2025, driven by higher utilization in Medicare and Marketplace segments.
High Risk
Regulatory and Policy Uncertainty
Market anxiety regarding new regulatory proposals and policy uncertainty, such as the 'One Big Beautiful Bill,' weigh on managed care valuations. These uncertainties can significantly impact the company's operational environment and financial performance.
Medium
Medicaid Attrition
Management has raised its attrition outlook for Medicaid, and further federal Medicaid cuts could deteriorate premium revenue before margin recovery. This could lead to a significant decline in revenue streams.
Medium
Operational Inefficiencies
If headcount built for the exiting MAPD business is not reduced, the revenue loss may not translate into earnings improvement, keeping the combined ratio elevated. This inefficiency could hinder profitability.
Medium
Marketplace Performance
The company faces challenges with its MAPD business and has a conservative outlook for its Medicaid membership. This could limit growth potential and affect overall financial health.
Lower
Interest Rate and Investment Risks
Investments in bonds are subject to various risks, including interest rate fluctuations, credit quality, market valuations, and liquidity. These factors can impact the company's investment income.
Lower
Stock-Specific Risk
MOH has shown vulnerability during market downturns, experiencing significant declines during the Global Financial Crisis, 2018 correction, Covid downturn, and recent inflation shock. This historical volatility may deter some investors.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why MOH Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Market Leadership and Integration
Mohawk is the largest flooring company globally, offering a comprehensive range of hard and soft surface products. Its vertically integrated manufacturing and distribution processes provide a competitive advantage, allowing for control over production from raw materials to finished goods.
Financial Performance and Growth Potential
Despite recent revenue and net income decreases, analysts project earnings growth for Mohawk Industries. Earnings are expected to rise by approximately 14.65% in the coming year, with EPS projected to increase significantly by 2029.
Undervalued Stock Opportunity
Some analyses suggest MHK is undervalued, with a narrative fair value around $126.53, implying about 16% undervaluation. Its P/E ratio is also noted as being less expensive than the market average.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
The average analyst rating for Mohawk Industries is 'Buy,' indicating a consensus among analysts for potential upside. This positive sentiment supports the bullish outlook for the stock.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
MOH Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$192.17
52W Range Position
34%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$121.06
+58.7% from the low
52-Week High
$333.00
-42.3% from the high
1 Month
+34.05%
3 Month
+8.67%
YTD
+7.7%
1 Year
-39.9%
3Y CAGR
-13.8%
5Y CAGR
-6.1%
10Y CAGR
+15.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
MOH vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
37.3x
vs 15.7x median
+137% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.2%
vs +4.0% median
+104% above peer median
Net Margin
0.4%
vs 0.5% median
-10% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MOH MOH Molina Healthcare, Inc. | $10.0B | 37.3x | +8.2% | 0.4% | Buy | -13.6% |
CNC CNC Centene Corporation | $26.2B | 15.7x | +7.6% | -3.3% | Buy | -3.7% |
ALH ALHC Alignment Healthcare, Inc. | $3.7B | 141.3x | +37.6% | 0.5% | Buy | +35.7% |
UNH UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $330.3B | 19.9x | +3.2% | 2.7% | Buy | +5.9% |
CVS CVS CVS Health Corporation | $102.6B | 11.3x | +3.5% | 0.4% | Buy | +18.0% |
ELV ELV Elevance Health Inc. | $80.1B | 13.8x | +4.0% | 2.6% | Buy | +3.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
MOH Dividend and Capital Return
MOH returns 10.0% annually — null% through dividends and 10.0% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
10.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
10.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
5M
Approx. Share Reduction
10.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
52M
At 10.0%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsMOH Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 38 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $166, implying -13.6% from the current price of $192.
02What is the MOH stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for MOH is $166 based on 38 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $224 (+16.6% from today), and the low-end target is $124 (-35.5%). The base case model target is $287.
03Is Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) stock overvalued in 2026?
MOH trades at 37.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for MOH in 2026 are: (1) Guidance Cuts and Lawsuits — A significant risk factor stems from a mid-2025 guidance cut, where the company reduced its full-year 2025 adjusted EPS outlook due to a higher-than-expected medical cost trend. (2) Medical Cost Trends — Rising medical costs, particularly within its Marketplace business segment, are a concern. (3) Regulatory and Policy Uncertainty — Market anxiety regarding new regulatory proposals and policy uncertainty, such as the 'One Big Beautiful Bill,' weigh on managed care valuations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Molina Healthcare, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates MOH will report consensus revenue of $48.8B (+8.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.80 (+111.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $55.0B in revenue.
06When does Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for MOH is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Molina Healthcare, Inc. generate?
Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) generated $251M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.6%. MOH returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($1.0B TTM).