Camden Property Trust (CPT) Cash Flow Statement

The dividend payout ratio based on AFFO has averaged roughly 0.60 over the last two quarters, but the extreme low AFFO in 2026Q1 (likely due to heavy capex) suggests that distributable cash flow is not consistently robust. Investors should monitor whether AFFO can stabilize above the dividend run-rate, as the current cushion appears minimal.

The wide quarterly swings in capex—ranging from a positive $195.2M in 2025Q3 to a negative $189.9M in 2026Q1—suggest that the company's development pipeline and capital recycling activities create lumpy cash flows. This variability complicates the assessment of true maintenance capex, as some of the spending may be growth-oriented rather than recurring. AFFO, which adjusts for recurring capex, appears more stable but still volatile, implying that the company's cash generation is sensitive to the timing of project completions.

The gap between net income and FFO is substantial, with FFO/NI ratios ranging from 1.26 to 11.26 over the past year. This indicates that depreciation and other non-cash items are a major factor in reported earnings, making FFO a more reliable measure of operational cash generation. The distortion is particularly acute in quarters with low net income, such as 2024Q3 when net income was negative, underscoring the need for investors to focus on FFO and AFFO rather than GAAP net income.

The divergence between net income and operating cash flow, particularly in quarters like 2025Q3 where OCF was $250.9M versus net income of $108.9M, indicates that changes in working capital—such as tenant receivables and payables—are significant. This may reflect seasonal rent collection patterns or timing of expense payments. Investors should monitor receivable trends to ensure that cash collections are not deteriorating, especially given the Sunbelt supply headwinds.

The company's capital expenditure program, particularly for development, exceeds operating cash flow in some quarters, necessitating external funding. The positive FCF in 2025Q3 (due to a large positive capex figure) likely reflects proceeds from asset sales, indicating a capital recycling strategy. This approach appears deliberate, but it introduces execution risk if disposition pricing weakens or if debt markets tighten. Investors should assess the sustainability of this funding model, especially as interest rates remain elevated.