Upside case
Bull case
$22+2.7%
BBVA would need investors to value it at roughly 11x earnings — about 0x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
13
analysts
7 bullish · 1 bearish · 13 covering BBVA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
7
Hold
5
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
—
— vs today
Scenario Range
$6 – $22
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
13
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.6x
Forward P/E · Market cap $120.1B
BBVA price targets
Three scenarios for where BBVA stock could go
Current
~$21
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $21
Bear
$6
Base
$19
Bull
$22
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$19-12.2%
At 9x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$6-70.9%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 7x multiple contraction could push BBVA down roughly 71% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.
BBVA · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - DiversifiedDecember year-end
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) is a multinational banking group providing retail and commercial banking services across multiple continents. It generates revenue primarily through net interest income from lending activities — about 60% of total income — supplemented by fees from banking services, insurance, and asset management. Its key advantage lies in its strong digital banking platform and extensive geographic diversification across Spain, Mexico, and Latin America, which provides resilience against regional economic cycles.
Market Cap
$120.1B
Net Income TTM
$10.5B
BBVA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
64%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
73%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+3.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.52/$0.47
Revenue
$10.3B/$10.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.49/$0.48
Revenue
$21.0B/$10.6B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.50/$0.50
Revenue
$11.6B/$11.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.60/$0.57
Revenue
$12.5B/$11.8B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.52/$0.47 | +10.6% | $10.3B/$10.3B | -0.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.49/$0.48 | +2.1% | $21.0B/$10.6B | +97.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.50/$0.50 | +0.0% | $11.6B/$11.2B | +2.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.60/$0.57 | +5.3% | $12.5B/$11.8B | +6.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$38.8B
+5.1% YoY
FY2
$40.5B
+4.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.66
-5.8% YoY
FY2
$1.73
+4.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$13.7B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
BBVA beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
BBVA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $20 — implies -10.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
10.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
BBVA
10.8x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
57% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
BBVA
10.8x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
19% discount
vs BBVA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
10.8x
vs
5Y Average
8.3x
+30% premium
Forward PE
10.6x
S&P 500
19.1x
-45%
Financial Services
10.4x
+2%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
10.8x
S&P 500
25.1x
-57%
Financial Services
13.3x
-19%
5Y Avg
8.3x
+30%
PEG Ratio
0.17x
S&P 500
1.72x
-90%
Financial Services
1.01x
-83%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
-67%
Financial Services
11.4x
-55%
5Y Avg
8.3x
-39%
Price/FCF
7.2x
S&P 500
21.1x
-66%
Financial Services
10.6x
-31%
5Y Avg
5.8x
+25%
Price/Sales
2.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-11%
Financial Services
2.2x
+25%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+65%
Dividend Yield
3.70%
S&P 500
1.87%
+98%
Financial Services
2.70%
+37%
5Y Avg
4.68%
-21%
| Metric | BBVA | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg BBVA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.6x | 19.1x-45% | 10.4x | — |
| Trailing PE | 10.8x | 25.1x-57% | 13.3x-19% | 8.3x+30% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.17x | 1.72x-90% | 1.01x-83% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1x | 15.2x-67% | 11.4x-55% | 8.3x-39% |
| Price/FCF | 7.2x | 21.1x-66% | 10.6x-31% | 5.8x+25% |
| Price/Sales | 2.8x | 3.1x-11% | 2.2x+25% | 1.7x+65% |
| Dividend Yield | 3.70% | 1.87% | 2.70% | 4.68% |
BBVA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolBBVA Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
BBVA generates 17.2% ROE and 1.3% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.76
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
17.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$94.0B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$12.1B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
17.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.6%
Dividend
3.7%
Buyback
1.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.9B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.67
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
38.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
5.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageBBVA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic & Geopolitical
BBVA faces significant exposure to persistent inflation, central bank interest rate hikes, and uncertain economic growth. Geopolitical turbulence can drive up energy prices and create negative economic scenarios, while global fragmentation may slow trade, heighten volatility, and erode multilateral cooperation.
Medium
Regulatory & Reputational
The bank must navigate a complex regulatory framework and maintain compliance to avoid penalties. Reputational risk arises from events that could damage stakeholder perception, potentially affecting customer trust and market positioning.
Medium
Operational & Business
Risks include failures in new business ventures, operational breakdowns, legal disputes, and human error. BBVA has implemented processes to identify and manage these risks, with a focus on cybersecurity and operational resilience.
Medium
Credit Risk
Credit risk stems from borrowers’ inability to repay loans or meet contractual obligations. BBVA monitors non‑performing loan indicators and maintains provisions to cover potential losses.
Medium
Market Risk
Market risk arises from fluctuations in equity prices, interest rates, foreign exchange rates, and commodity prices. The bank employs Value‑at‑Risk models and sets exposure limits to control potential losses.
Lower
ESG Risk
Emerging environmental, social, and governance risks can adversely impact the Group. BBVA’s risk management model includes scenario analysis and stress testing to address these ESG factors.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why BBVA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Record Profitability & Financial Strength
BBVA posted a record net profit of €10.5 billion in 2025, the highest in its history, driven by a 16.2% rise in lending and a Return on Tangible Equity (ROTE) of 19.3%. In 2024 the bank earned €10.1 billion, a 25% year‑over‑year increase, with a ROTE of 19.7% and a solid CET1 capital ratio of 12.7%.
Digital‑First Growth & Customer Acquisition
More than 50% of new clients are acquired digitally, and these digital customers become three times more profitable over time. BBVA’s app‑centric model lowers acquisition costs while accelerating customer base expansion in priority segments such as corporate banking and sustainable business.
Robust Shareholder Returns
BBVA plans to distribute over €5.2 billion as an ordinary dividend in 2025, representing 50% of earnings, and has announced an extraordinary share buyback program of nearly €4 billion. The bank also delivered a record €0.92 per share in cash dividends in 2025.
Leadership in Sustainable Finance
In 2025 BBVA channeled €134 billion into sustainable finance, moving closer to its €700 billion target by 2029. The bank is a pioneer in decarbonizing the economy, focusing on clean technologies and digital solutions for carbon footprint calculation.
Best‑in‑Class Operational Efficiency
BBVA maintains an efficiency ratio of 38.2%, significantly outperforming the European banking average and supporting higher net margins.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
BBVA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$21.39
52W Range Position
60%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$14.07
+52.0% from the low
52-Week High
$26.20
-18.4% from the high
1 Month
-1.97%
3 Month
-7.80%
YTD
-10.8%
1 Year
+52.4%
3Y CAGR
+45.3%
5Y CAGR
+30.0%
10Y CAGR
+12.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
BBVA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.6x
vs 10.0x median
+6% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.1%
vs -12.4% median
+142% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BBV BBVA Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. | $120.1B | 10.6x | +5.1% | — | Buy | — |
SAN SAN Banco Santander, S.A. | $174.4B | 10.0x | -12.4% | — | Buy | -74.7% |
ING ING ING Groep N.V. | $81.7B | 11.8x | -24.5% | — | Buy | -20.8% |
ITU ITUB Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A. | $94.5B | 1.8x | -0.6% | — | Buy | -25.6% |
BSB BSBR Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. | $43.8B | 6.5x | +1.6% | — | Buy | +23.1% |
UBS UBS UBS Group AG | $136.9B | 13.5x | -19.3% | — | Buy | -46.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
BBVA Dividend and Capital Return
BBVA returns 5.6% total yield, led by a 3.70% dividend. Buybacks add another 1.9%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
5.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.9%
Dividend Yield
3.70%
Payout Ratio
38.3%
How BBVA Splits Its Return
Div 3.70%
Buyback 1.9%
Dividend 3.70%Buybacks 1.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.67
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
29.9%
5Y Div CAGR
36.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.9B
Estimated Shares Retired
90M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
5.6B
At 1.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.71 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.83 | +10.4% | 1.4% | 4.3% |
| 2024 | $0.75 | +49.1% | 2.7% | 9.7% |
| 2023 | $0.50 | +33.1% | 4.0% | 9.2% |
| 2022 | $0.38 | +130.2% | 8.0% | 13.9% |
FAQ
6 questionsBBVA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 13 analysts covering the stock, 7 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The bear case scenario is $6 and the bull case is $22.
02Is Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) stock overvalued in 2026?
BBVA trades at 10.6x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
03What are the main risks for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for BBVA in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic & Geopolitical — BBVA faces significant exposure to persistent inflation, central bank interest rate hikes, and uncertain economic growth. (2) Regulatory & Reputational — The bank must navigate a complex regulatory framework and maintain compliance to avoid penalties. (3) Operational & Business — Risks include failures in new business ventures, operational breakdowns, legal disputes, and human error. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
04What is Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates BBVA will report consensus revenue of $38.8B (+5.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.66 (-5.8% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $40.5B in revenue.
05When does Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for BBVA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
06How much free cash flow does Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. generate?
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) generated $13.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. BBVA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (3.7% yield) and share repurchases ($1.9B TTM).