Upside case
Bull case
$205+354.3%
UBS would need investors to value it at roughly 63x earnings — about 49x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
UBS Group AG (UBS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
29
analysts
16 bullish · 6 bearish · 29 covering UBS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
7
Sell
6
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$24
-47.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$29 – $205
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
29
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
13.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $140.3B
UBS price targets
Three scenarios for where UBS stock could go
Current
~$45
Confidence
44 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $45
Bear
$29
Base
$51
Bull
$205
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$51+13.9%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$29-36.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 5x multiple contraction could push UBS down roughly 36% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
UBS Group AG
UBS · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - DiversifiedDecember year-end
UBS Group AG is a global financial services firm that provides wealth management, investment banking, and asset management services to private, institutional, and corporate clients worldwide. It generates revenue primarily through Global Wealth Management (its largest segment at roughly 50% of revenue), Investment Banking fees and trading, Asset Management fees, and Personal & Corporate Banking interest income and fees. The company's key competitive advantage is its global scale in wealth management—particularly with ultra-high-net-worth clients—and its integrated Swiss banking model combining stability with comprehensive financial services.
Market Cap
$140.3B
Net Income TTM
$6.3B
UBS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
73%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
73%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-7.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.72/$0.70
Revenue
$18.3B/$9.5B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.76/$0.49
Revenue
$12.2B/$11.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.37/$0.25
Revenue
$12.2B/$11.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.94/$0.85
Revenue
$13.6B/$13.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.72/$0.70 | +2.9% | $18.3B/$9.5B | +92.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.76/$0.49 | +55.9% | $12.2B/$11.9B | +2.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.37/$0.25 | +48.0% | $12.2B/$11.7B | +4.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.94/$0.85 | +10.6% | $13.6B/$13.2B | +3.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$47.6B
-19.3% YoY
FY2
$39.7B
-16.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.44
+28.6% YoY
FY2
$2.13
-12.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.9B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
UBS beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
UBS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $41.0B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Americas
42.9%
+4.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Americas is the largest reported region at 42.9%, up 4.8% YoY.
UBS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $42 — implies -3.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
3.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
UBS
24.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
UBS
24.2x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+81% premium
vs UBS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
24.2x
vs
5Y Average
13.0x
+85% premium
Forward PE
13.8x
S&P 500
19.1x
-27%
Financial Services
10.5x
+32%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
24.2x
S&P 500
25.2x
-4%
Financial Services
13.4x
+81%
5Y Avg
13.0x
+85%
PEG Ratio
21.88x
S&P 500
1.75x
+1153%
Financial Services
1.03x
+2033%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
30.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
+97%
Financial Services
11.4x
+163%
5Y Avg
16.2x
+85%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
22.1x
—
Price/Sales
2.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
-24%
Financial Services
2.3x
+5%
5Y Avg
1.9x
+28%
Dividend Yield
1.59%
S&P 500
1.88%
-15%
Financial Services
2.68%
-41%
5Y Avg
2.01%
-21%
| Metric | UBS | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg UBS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 13.8x | 19.1x-27% | 10.5x+32% | — |
| Trailing PE | 24.2x | 25.2x | 13.4x+81% | 13.0x+85% |
| PEG Ratio | 21.88x | 1.75x+1153% | 1.03x+2033% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.0x | 15.3x+97% | 11.4x+163% | 16.2x+85% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 10.6x | 22.1x |
| Price/Sales | 2.4x | 3.1x-24% | 2.3x | 1.9x+28% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.59% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 2.01% |
UBS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 5 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolUBS Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
UBS generates 7.0% ROE and 0.4% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.90
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
7.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
1.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$209.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$146.3B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
7.0%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.7%
Dividend
1.6%
Buyback
3.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$4.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.72
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
38.7%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
3.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageUBS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Capital Requirements & Resilience
Swiss regulators propose significantly higher capital buffers for UBS, which could constrain its global expansion and reduce profitability. UBS has publicly disagreed, labeling the increases as disproportionate and not aligned with international standards. Failure to meet these demands could trigger regulatory sanctions and impact shareholder value.
High Risk
Internal Control Weaknesses
UBS inherited internal control deficiencies from Credit Suisse, leading to an adverse opinion on its financial reporting controls as of December 31, 2024. The remediation timeline and associated costs remain uncertain, posing risks of restatement, regulatory penalties, and reputational damage. Ongoing integration complexity further heightens this exposure.
High Risk
Deposit & Funding Volatility
Recent analyses indicate a notable decline in customer deposits and short‑term borrowings, raising concerns about liquidity and the adequacy of cash reserves. A liquidity shortfall could impair UBS’s ability to meet obligations and fund growth initiatives. The bank’s reliance on short‑term funding amplifies this risk.
Medium
AML Compliance & Fines
UBS was fined in 2019 for failing to report suspicious transactions, while Credit Suisse faced multiple high‑profile AML scandals. The integration has intensified scrutiny, potentially leading to further regulatory penalties and reputational harm. Strengthening AML controls is essential to mitigate this exposure.
Medium
Trade Tariffs & Conflict Exposure
UBS monitors geopolitical uncertainty, including trade tariffs and regional conflicts that can elevate market volatility, oil prices, and slow global growth. Recent easing of US‑Iran tensions has reduced some pressure, but risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz persist. These factors could affect client activity and asset valuations.
Medium
Climate‑Related Credit & Reputational Risk
UBS defines sustainability and climate risk (SCR) as potential negative impacts across credit, market, liquidity, and non‑financial dimensions. Integrating SCR into risk management aims to mitigate adverse financial, liability, and reputational outcomes. Failure to address SCR could expose UBS to regulatory fines and loss of client trust.
Lower
Insurance Regulation Weakness
UBS’s chairman warns of looming systemic risks in the US insurance sector due to weak and complex regulations, especially amid a boom in private financing. Comparisons to the 2007 subprime crisis highlight potential rating agency arbitrage. The impact on UBS is indirect but warrants monitoring.
Lower
Historical Operational Failures
UBS has faced operational risk incidents, including subprime losses attributed to inadequate risk management. While an operational risk framework exists, past events underscore the need for robust identification, evaluation, and reporting processes. Continued vigilance is required to prevent recurrence.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why UBS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Rapid EPS Growth 2025-2028
UBS is projected to achieve the fastest sequential earnings per share growth among global banks, with a 30% increase expected between 2025 and 2028. In 2025, the bank’s revenue rose 3.26% to $49.60 billion, while earnings surged 52.74% to $7.77 billion.
Wealth Management Asset Base
UBS’s Asset Management segment serves high‑net‑worth clients and has surpassed $2 trillion in invested assets, providing a solid and growing revenue stream.
Credit Suisse Integration Gains
The successful integration of Credit Suisse is expected to lift margins and unlock long‑term earnings power through efficiency gains, a critical test of UBS’s strategy.
Digital Finance & Private Markets
UBS is investing in digital finance, exemplified by a stablecoin sandbox, and consolidating private credit funds into an insured debt offering, positioning it for growth in emerging financial tech.
Strong Shareholder Returns
UBS declared a special dividend of $0.55 per share payable in April 2026 and has increased dividends for five consecutive years, underscoring its commitment to rewarding shareholders.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
UBS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$45.21
52W Range Position
78%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$30.36
+48.9% from the low
52-Week High
$49.36
-8.4% from the high
1 Month
+13.91%
3 Month
+2.96%
YTD
-4.0%
1 Year
+47.4%
3Y CAGR
+32.0%
5Y CAGR
+23.6%
10Y CAGR
+11.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
UBS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
13.8x
vs 14.2x median
-2% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-19.3%
vs -15.9% median
-22% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UBS UBS UBS Group AG | $140.3B | 13.8x | -19.3% | — | Buy | -47.9% |
MS MS Morgan Stanley | $307.5B | 16.3x | -5.3% | — | Buy | +6.5% |
GS GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | $291.2B | 15.8x | -23.1% | — | Hold | +6.2% |
BAC BAC Bank of America Corporation | $407.9B | 12.1x | -17.8% | — | Buy | +14.0% |
C C Citigroup Inc. | $222.9B | 11.8x | -15.9% | — | Buy | +10.1% |
JPM JPM JPMorgan Chase & Co. | $849.0B | 14.2x | -6.4% | — | Buy | +7.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
UBS Dividend and Capital Return
UBS returns capital mainly through $4.3B/year in buybacks (3.1% buyback yield), with a modest 1.59% dividend — combining for 4.7% total shareholder yield.
Dividend SustainableFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
4.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
3.1%
Dividend Yield
1.59%
Payout Ratio
38.7%
How UBS Splits Its Return
Div 1.59%
Buyback 3.1%
Dividend 1.59%Buybacks 3.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.72
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
21.4%
5Y Div CAGR
4.1%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$4.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
95M
Approx. Share Reduction
3.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
3.1B
At 3.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.10 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.89 | +28.8% | 2.8% | 4.4% |
| 2024 | $0.69 | +25.4% | 2.9% | 5.1% |
| 2023 | $0.55 | +10.7% | 2.7% | 4.4% |
| 2022 | $0.50 | +34.9% | 9.5% | 12.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsUBS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is UBS Group AG (UBS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
UBS Group AG (UBS) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 29 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 6 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $24, implying -47.9% from the current price of $45. The bear case scenario is $29 and the bull case is $205.
02What is the UBS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for UBS is $24 based on 29 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $34 (-24.8% from today), and the low-end target is $19 (-57.4%). The base case model target is $51.
03Is UBS Group AG (UBS) stock overvalued in 2026?
UBS trades at 13.8x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for UBS Group AG (UBS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for UBS in 2026 are: (1) Capital Requirements & Resilience — Swiss regulators propose significantly higher capital buffers for UBS, which could constrain its global expansion and reduce profitability. (2) Internal Control Weaknesses — UBS inherited internal control deficiencies from Credit Suisse, leading to an adverse opinion on its financial reporting controls as of December 31, 2024. (3) Deposit & Funding Volatility — Recent analyses indicate a notable decline in customer deposits and short‑term borrowings, raising concerns about liquidity and the adequacy of cash reserves. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is UBS Group AG's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates UBS will report consensus revenue of $47.6B (-19.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.44 (+28.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $39.7B in revenue.
06When does UBS Group AG (UBS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for UBS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does UBS Group AG generate?
UBS Group AG (UBS) generated $3.9B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. UBS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.6% yield) and share repurchases ($4.3B TTM).