Upside case
Bull case
$39+31.7%
ING would need investors to value it at roughly 16x earnings — about 4x more generous than today's 12x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
ING Groep N.V. (ING) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
17
analysts
11 bullish · 0 bearish · 17 covering ING
Strong Buy
1
Buy
10
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$23
-24.9% vs today
Scenario Range
$6 – $39
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
17
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $86.2B
ING price targets
Three scenarios for where ING stock could go
Current
~$30
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $30
Bear
$6
Base
$13
Bull
$39
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$13-55.7%
At 6x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$6-80.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push ING down roughly 80% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
ING Groep N.V.
ING · NYSEFinancial ServicesBanks - DiversifiedDecember year-end
ING Groep is a multinational banking and financial services corporation operating primarily across Europe. It generates revenue through retail banking services — including deposits, mortgages, and consumer loans — and wholesale banking for corporate clients, with retail banking contributing roughly 70% of income and wholesale banking about 30%. Its key competitive advantage lies in its pan-European digital banking platform and strong brand recognition across its core markets, particularly in the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany.
Market Cap
$86.2B
Net Income TTM
$6.3B
ING Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+14.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.64/$0.59
Revenue
$28.6B/$6.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.70/$0.64
Revenue
$6.9B/$6.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.56/$0.50
Revenue
$6.9B/$6.7B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.63/$0.60
Revenue
$6.8B/$6.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.64/$0.59 | +8.5% | $28.6B/$6.2B | +358.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.70/$0.64 | +9.4% | $6.9B/$6.3B | +9.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.56/$0.50 | +12.0% | $6.9B/$6.7B | +3.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.63/$0.60 | +5.0% | $6.8B/$6.9B | -0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$17.4B
-24.5% YoY
FY2
$13.5B
-22.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.28
-41.2% YoY
FY2
$1.10
-13.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$0
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ING beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
ING Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $29.5B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Country of domicile
30.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Country of domicile is the largest reported region at 30.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
ING Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Overvalued
Fair value est. $27 — implies -5.2% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
5.2%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ING
12.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
52% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
ING
12.0x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
10% discount
vs ING 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.0x
vs
5Y Average
11.8x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
12.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
-35%
Financial Services
10.5x
+19%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-52%
Financial Services
13.4x
-10%
5Y Avg
11.8x
+2%
PEG Ratio
0.44x
S&P 500
1.75x
-75%
Financial Services
1.03x
-57%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
20.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
+36%
Financial Services
11.4x
+82%
5Y Avg
13.6x
+53%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
3.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+2%
Financial Services
2.3x
+42%
5Y Avg
1.7x
+83%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Financial Services
2.68%
—
5Y Avg
6.19%
—
| Metric | ING | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg ING |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.5x | 19.1x-35% | 10.5x+19% | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.0x | 25.2x-52% | 13.4x | 11.8x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.44x | 1.75x-75% | 1.03x-57% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 20.8x | 15.3x+36% | 11.4x+82% | 13.6x+53% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 10.6x | — |
| Price/Sales | 3.2x | 3.1x | 2.3x+42% | 1.7x+83% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.68% | 6.19% |
ING trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolING Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
ING generates 12.4% ROE and 0.6% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.17
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
12.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$52.9B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$116.4B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
12.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.9B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageING Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
AML Fines & Compliance
ING paid a $200 million penalty in February 2024 for serious AML failures and had previously incurred a €775 million fine in 2018. These large fines reflect significant regulatory scrutiny and the cost of strengthening compliance programs.
High Risk
Russia Exit Uncertainty
The bank’s stalled exit from its Russian subsidiary creates operational, legal, and reputational risks, with potential capital impacts if alternative exit routes are not secured.
High Risk
Credit Risk & Funding Costs
Rising funding costs in the private credit market increase risk for borrowers, especially in the software sector where ING has concentrated exposure. Inflationary pressures linked to geopolitical tensions further strain loan performance and the bank’s allowance for bad loans.
Medium
Counterparty Risk
The inability of counterparties to meet financial obligations could materially affect ING’s results, exposing the bank to credit losses beyond its current provisioning.
Medium
Interest Rate Volatility
Fluctuations in interest rates can adversely affect ING’s earnings, balance sheet, and overall financial condition, especially given its exposure to variable-rate assets and liabilities.
Lower
ESG Reputational Risk
Failure to meet ESG-related goals or expectations could damage ING’s reputation among regulators, investors, and customers, potentially impacting its market standing and cost of capital.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ING Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Record Financial Performance
ING posted record total income of €23 billion in 2025, driven by strong commercial net interest income and a 15% YoY jump in fee income, which now accounts for 20% of total income. The bank also delivered a 13.2% return on equity for 2025, surpassing its outlook.
Customer Growth & Lending
Mobile primary customer base grew by over 1.0 million in 2025 to 15.4 million. Net core lending expanded €57 billion (8%) in 2025, more than double the prior year’s pace, and ING holds a €376 billion mortgage portfolio in Europe.
Strategic Shift to Fee Income
ING is actively diversifying income by boosting fee‑based revenue from wealth management, M&A, and underwriting, aiming to reduce dependence on interest margins. This shift supports a more resilient earnings profile as fee income rises.
Attractive Valuation
ING trades at a P/E of 8.4x, below the industry average of 11.5x and peers at 17.2x, indicating potential upside. The valuation gap suggests the stock may be undervalued relative to its peers.
Shareholder Returns
In 2025, ING returned approximately €7.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, delivering a significant yield and reinforcing its commitment to capital return.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ING Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$29.96
52W Range Position
89%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$20.07
+49.3% from the low
52-Week High
$31.18
-3.9% from the high
1 Month
+11.87%
3 Month
-0.33%
YTD
+4.2%
1 Year
+48.1%
3Y CAGR
+34.0%
5Y CAGR
+18.0%
10Y CAGR
+9.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ING vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.5x
vs 10.9x median
+14% above peer median
Revenue Growth
-24.5%
vs -13.8% median
-77% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ING ING ING Groep N.V. | $86.2B | 12.5x | -24.5% | — | Buy | -24.9% |
DB DB Deutsche Bank AG | $61.3B | 9.5x | -13.8% | — | Hold | -53.6% |
BBV BBVA Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. | $124.5B | 10.9x | +5.1% | — | Buy | — |
SAN SAN Banco Santander, S.A. | $182.0B | 10.4x | -12.4% | — | Buy | -75.8% |
BCS BCS Barclays PLC | $82.4B | 11.2x | -22.8% | — | Buy | +83.2% |
UBS UBS UBS Group AG | $140.3B | 13.8x | -19.3% | — | Buy | -47.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ING Dividend and Capital Return
ING does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.48
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
12.1%
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
3 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.9B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.08 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.23 | +2.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 2024 | $1.20 | +35.9% | 7.7% | 15.5% |
| 2023 | $0.88 | +1.0% | 6.6% | 12.1% |
| 2022 | $0.87 | +23.1% | 3.9% | 10.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsING Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is ING Groep N.V. (ING) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
ING Groep N.V. (ING) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 17 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $23, implying -24.9% from the current price of $30. The bear case scenario is $6 and the bull case is $39.
02What is the ING stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ING is $23 based on 17 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $23 (-24.9% from today), and the low-end target is $23 (-24.9%). The base case model target is $13.
03Is ING Groep N.V. (ING) stock overvalued in 2026?
ING trades at 12.5x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for ING Groep N.V. (ING) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ING in 2026 are: (1) AML Fines & Compliance — ING paid a $200 million penalty in February 2024 for serious AML failures and had previously incurred a €775 million fine in 2018. (2) Russia Exit Uncertainty — The bank’s stalled exit from its Russian subsidiary creates operational, legal, and reputational risks, with potential capital impacts if alternative exit routes are not secured. (3) Credit Risk & Funding Costs — Rising funding costs in the private credit market increase risk for borrowers, especially in the software sector where ING has concentrated exposure. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is ING Groep N.V.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ING will report consensus revenue of $17.4B (-24.5% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.28 (-41.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $13.5B in revenue.
06When does ING Groep N.V. (ING) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ING is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does ING Groep N.V. generate?
ING Groep N.V. (ING) generated $0 in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. ING returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).