Upside case
Bull case
$7702+31069.8%
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing HMC more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
18
analysts
5 bullish · 1 bearish · 18 covering HMC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$32
+27.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$2391 – $7702
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
18
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $32.1B
HMC price targets
Three scenarios for where HMC stock could go
Current
~$25
Confidence
50 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $25
Bear
$2391
Base
$3804
Bull
$7702
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$3804+15293.2%
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
$2391+9575.0%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push HMC down roughly 9575% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Honda Motor Co., Ltd.
HMC · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersMarch year-end
Honda is a global automotive and mobility company that manufactures and sells motorcycles, automobiles, and power products worldwide. It generates revenue primarily from vehicle sales—with automobiles contributing roughly 75% of revenue and motorcycles around 15%—supplemented by financial services and power equipment. Honda's competitive advantage lies in its engineering excellence and brand reputation for reliability, particularly in fuel-efficient engines and motorcycle technology.
Market Cap
$32.1B
Revenue TTM
$21.34T
Net Income TTM
$496.0B
Net Margin
2.3%
HMC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
80%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
50%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+41.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.13/—
Revenue
$36.9B/—
Q3 2025
EPS
$0.97/$0.51
Revenue
$36.9B/$36.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.60/$0.68
Revenue
$35.3B/$35.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.76/$0.52
Revenue
$34.8B/$33.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.13/— | — | $36.9B/— | — |
| Q3 2025 | $0.97/$0.51 | +90.2% | $36.9B/$36.1B | +2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.60/$0.68 | -11.6% | $35.3B/$35.9B | -1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.76/$0.52 | +47.6% | $34.8B/$33.3B | +4.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$22.97T
+7.7% YoY
FY2
$24.87T
+8.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$359.76
-5.4% YoY
FY2
$529.13
+47.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$11.8B
FCF Margin: 0.1%
Next Earnings
May 12, 2026
Expected EPS
$-5.74
Expected Revenue
$33.0B
HMC beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
HMC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $14.55T
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
automobiles and relevant parts
72.7%
+8.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
automobiles and relevant parts is the largest disclosed segment at 72.7% of FY 2022 revenue, up 8.6% YoY.
HMC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $13028 — implies +53979.7% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
53979.7%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HMC
7.2x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
72% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
HMC
7.2x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
63% discount
vs HMC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
7.2x
vs
5Y Average
0.1x
+11044% premium
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
7.2x
S&P 500
25.2x
-72%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
-63%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+11044%
PEG Ratio
0.46x
S&P 500
1.75x
-74%
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
-52%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
2.5x
S&P 500
15.3x
-84%
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
-78%
5Y Avg
2.2x
+14%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
—
5Y Avg
0.2x
—
Price/Sales
0.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-93%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
-68%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+7654%
Dividend Yield
5.79%
S&P 500
1.88%
+208%
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
+170%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | HMC | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg HMC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 15.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | 7.2x | 25.2x-72% | 19.6x-63% | 0.1x+11044% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.46x | 1.75x-74% | 0.95x-52% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 2.5x | 15.3x-84% | 11.4x-78% | 2.2x+14% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 15.0x | 0.2x |
| Price/Sales | 0.2x | 3.1x-93% | 0.7x-68% | 0.0x+7654% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.79% | 1.88% | 2.15% | — |
HMC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 4 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHMC Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
HMC returns 5.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$21.34T
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-1.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
20.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
3.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
2.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$380.37
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$11.8B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
0.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
5.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.53T
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$106.6B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
3.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.8%
Dividend
5.8%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$223.36
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
41.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
1.6B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageHMC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic & Political
Economic slowdowns, recessions, currency fluctuations, rising fuel prices, and geopolitical pressures can dampen demand for Honda’s vehicles and increase procurement costs. A sustained loss of consumer confidence in key markets could sharply reduce sales volumes.
High Risk
Financial & Corporate
Honda’s Altman Z‑Score of 1.67 signals potential financial distress within the next two years. Credit risk on consumer and dealer finance receivables, coupled with liquidity risk, could strain working capital and limit growth initiatives.
High Risk
Operational & Production
Cybersecurity incidents have halted production and financial services globally, while supply‑chain disruptions such as the 2011 Thailand floods led to production suspensions and significant profit declines. Managing production costs remains critical.
Medium
Sales & Market
Intense competition, market contraction, and shifting consumer preferences pose risks to sales performance. Analyst downgrades from “overweight” to “equal weight” can alter market sentiment and affect the stock price.
Lower
Technological & Innovation
Although Honda is known for innovation, its technology and innovation risks are below the sector average, indicating a relatively lower threat to product competitiveness.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HMC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
SDV & Battery Cost Advantage via Astemo & LG JV
Honda’s majority stake in Astemo positions it to capture the Software‑Defined Vehicle trend, while a $3 billion investment in its joint venture with LG Energy is expected to lower battery costs. These moves support the company’s U.S. electric‑vehicle sales targets by reducing the cost of key components.
Robust Motorcycle Profitability
The motorcycle segment has delivered record‑high sales volumes and profitability in recent fiscal years, providing a stable revenue stream that diversifies Honda’s business beyond automobiles. This segment’s contribution to operating profit underscores its strategic importance.
Low Debt & Share Repurchase Momentum
Honda maintains a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 0.65, indicating financial stability, and has carried out substantial share‑repurchase programs, returning value to shareholders and supporting share price resilience.
Battery Cost Reduction Boosting U.S. EV Sales
The $3 billion LG Energy JV investment is projected to lower battery costs, directly supporting Honda’s U.S. sales targets for electric vehicles and enhancing its competitive position in the growing EV market.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HMC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$24.71
52W Range Position
13%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$23.25
+6.3% from the low
52-Week High
$34.89
-29.2% from the high
1 Month
+3.65%
3 Month
-24.71%
YTD
-17.5%
1 Year
-19.7%
3Y CAGR
-2.7%
5Y CAGR
-4.2%
10Y CAGR
-1.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HMC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 7.7x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+7.7%
vs +2.8% median
+179% above peer median
Net Margin
2.3%
vs 1.4% median
+69% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HMC HMC Honda Motor Co., Ltd. | $32.1B | — | +7.7% | 2.3% | Hold | +27.5% |
TM TM Toyota Motor Corporation | $254.2B | 0.1x | +9.0% | 9.4% | Hold | -8.0% |
F F Ford Motor Company | $47.7B | 7.7x | +2.5% | -3.2% | Hold | +14.8% |
GM GM General Motors Company | $71.0B | 6.2x | +1.7% | 1.4% | Buy | +16.6% |
STL STLA Stellantis N.V. | $22.2B | 10.0x | +2.8% | -6.2% | Hold | +40.5% |
TSL TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $1.50T | 206.1x | +5.0% | 4.0% | Hold | +13.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HMC Dividend and Capital Return
HMC returns 5.8% total yield, led by a 5.79% dividend.
Dividend SustainableFCF Stretched
Total Shareholder Yield
5.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
5.79%
Payout Ratio
41.6%
How HMC Splits Its Return
Div 5.79%
Dividend 5.79%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$223.36
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.0%
5Y Div CAGR
12.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.6B
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.63 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.39 | -2.2% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2024 | $1.42 | +39.2% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2023 | $1.02 | +8.7% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2022 | $0.94 | -3.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsHMC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $32, implying +27.5% from the current price of $25. The bear case scenario is $2391 and the bull case is $7702.
02What is the HMC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HMC is $32 based on 18 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $32 (+27.5% from today), and the low-end target is $32 (+27.5%). The base case model target is $3804.
03Is Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for HMC is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HMC in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic & Political — Economic slowdowns, recessions, currency fluctuations, rising fuel prices, and geopolitical pressures can dampen demand for Honda’s vehicles and increase procurement costs. (2) Financial & Corporate — Honda’s Altman Z‑Score of 1. (3) Operational & Production — Cybersecurity incidents have halted production and financial services globally, while supply‑chain disruptions such as the 2011 Thailand floods led to production suspensions and significant profit declines. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Honda Motor Co., Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HMC will report consensus revenue of $22.97T (+7.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $359.76 (-5.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $24.87T in revenue.
06When does Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) report its next earnings?
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-12. Consensus expects EPS of $-5.74 and revenue of $33.0B. Over recent quarters, HMC has beaten EPS estimates 80% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Honda Motor Co., Ltd. generate?
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) generated $11.8B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 0.1%. HMC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.8% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).