Upside case
Bull case
$2728+10289.8%
HMC would need investors to value it at roughly 13x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 0x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
18
analysts
5 bullish · 1 bearish · 18 covering HMC
Strong Buy
0
Buy
5
Hold
12
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$32
+20.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$1305 – $2728
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
18
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
0.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $34.1B
HMC price targets
Three scenarios for where HMC stock could go
Current
~$26
Confidence
43 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $26
Bear
$1305
Base
$2071
Bull
$2728
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$2071+7785.4%
At 10x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$1305+4867.8%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push HMC down roughly 4868% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Honda Motor Co., Ltd.
HMC · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersMarch year-end
Honda is a global automotive and mobility company that manufactures and sells motorcycles, automobiles, and power products worldwide. It generates revenue primarily from vehicle sales—with automobiles contributing roughly 75% of revenue and motorcycles around 15%—supplemented by financial services and power equipment. Honda's competitive advantage lies in its engineering excellence and brand reputation for reliability, particularly in fuel-efficient engines and motorcycle technology.
Market Cap
$34.1B
Revenue TTM
$22.00T
Net Income TTM
-$437.5B
Net Margin
-2.0%
HMC Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
80%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
60%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+37.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 3 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.97/$0.51
Revenue
$36.9B/$36.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.60/$0.68
Revenue
$35.3B/$35.9B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.76/$0.52
Revenue
$34.8B/$33.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$-4.24/$-5.74
Revenue
$36.8B/$33.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.97/$0.51 | +90.2% | $36.9B/$36.1B | +2.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.60/$0.68 | -11.6% | $35.3B/$35.9B | -1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.76/$0.52 | +47.6% | $34.8B/$33.3B | +4.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $-4.24/$-5.74 | +26.2% | $36.8B/$33.0B | +11.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$23.48T
+6.7% YoY
FY2
$24.75T
+5.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-69.70
+78.7% YoY
FY2
$115.04
+265.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$512.2B
FCF Margin: 2.3%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.72
Expected Revenue
$36.2B
HMC beat EPS estimates in 3 of 4 tracked quarters. A strong delivery record supports forward estimate credibility.
HMC Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2022
Total disclosed revenue $14.55T
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
automobiles and relevant parts
72.7%
+8.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
automobiles and relevant parts is the largest disclosed segment at 72.7% of FY 2022 revenue, up 8.6% YoY.
HMC Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $5780 — implies +21909.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
21909.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
HMC
-12.5x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
151% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
HMC
-12.5x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
159% discount
vs HMC 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-12.5x
vs
5Y Average
0.1x
20674% discount
Forward PE
0.1x
S&P 500
18.8x
-99%
Consumer Cyclical
16.3x
-99%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-12.5x
S&P 500
24.4x
-151%
Consumer Cyclical
21.2x
-159%
5Y Avg
0.1x
-20674%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.92x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
14.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
-3%
Consumer Cyclical
12.2x
+21%
5Y Avg
4.0x
+273%
Price/FCF
9.9x
S&P 500
20.7x
-52%
Consumer Cyclical
15.6x
-37%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+6862%
Price/Sales
0.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
-92%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
-66%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+9507%
Dividend Yield
5.37%
S&P 500
1.91%
+180%
Consumer Cyclical
2.17%
+147%
5Y Avg
5.40%
-1%
| Metric | HMC | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg HMC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 0.1x | 18.8x-99% | 16.3x-99% | — |
| Trailing PE | -12.5x | 24.4x-151% | 21.2x-159% | 0.1x-20674% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.92x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.8x | 15.2x | 12.2x+21% | 4.0x+273% |
| Price/FCF | 9.9x | 20.7x-52% | 15.6x-37% | 0.1x+6862% |
| Price/Sales | 0.2x | 3.1x-92% | 0.7x-66% | 0.0x+9507% |
| Dividend Yield | 5.37% | 1.91% | 2.17% | 5.40% |
HMC trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolHMC Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
HMC returns 18.4% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$22.00T
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+1.4%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
16.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-2.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-2.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-327.01
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$512.2B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
2.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-2.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-1.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$5.09T
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$8.45T
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
16.5× FCF
~16.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-3.5%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-2.0%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
18.4%
Dividend
5.4%
Buyback
13.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$710.7B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$226.31
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
1.3B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageHMC Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Strategic Realignment Uncertainty
Honda's 'Great Reset' strategic shift, including moving away from its EV focus, has created uncertainty about its future direction and competitiveness.
High Risk
Investor Confidence Erosion
Amended filings by key executives regarding beneficial ownership have led to investor uncertainty and lack of confidence, contributing to bearish market movements.
Medium
Market Sentiment Shift
Recent stock performance and analyst coverage suggest a shift in market sentiment, with potential concerns over Honda's ability to maintain its market position.
Medium
EV Transition Risks
Honda's pivot from its vocal proponent stance on an all-electric future raises questions about its ability to compete in the evolving automotive landscape.
Lower
Dealer Network Saturation
The extensive network of Honda dealerships, while a strength, may face challenges in maintaining profitability amid competitive pricing and inventory pressures.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why HMC Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Analyst price target upside
The Wall Street consensus price target of $31.51 represents a potential upside of +17.4% from the current stock price of $26.85.
Revenue exceeding expectations
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. reported revenue exceeding analyst expectations, indicating strong financial performance.
Value investment opportunity
The current stock price around $26 may present a buying opportunity for investors seeking value in the automotive sector.
Strong market capitalization
The company has a substantial market capitalization of $34.84B, reflecting its established position in the market.
Innovative product lineup
Honda offers an innovative line of quality products, which could drive future growth and customer demand.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
HMC Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$26.26
52W Range Position
26%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$23.25
+13.0% from the low
52-Week High
$34.89
-24.7% from the high
1 Month
+4.17%
3 Month
+5.84%
YTD
-12.3%
1 Year
-11.4%
3Y CAGR
-4.8%
5Y CAGR
-3.7%
10Y CAGR
-0.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
HMC vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
0.1x
vs 8.4x median
-99% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+6.7%
vs +4.9% median
+37% above peer median
Net Margin
-2.0%
vs 1.4% median
-245% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HMC HMC Honda Motor Co., Ltd. | $34.1B | 0.1x | +6.7% | -2.0% | Hold | +20.0% |
TM TM Toyota Motor Corporation | $226.7B | 0.1x | +8.2% | 7.6% | Hold | +3.1% |
F F Ford Motor Company | $55.0B | 8.4x | +2.0% | -3.2% | Hold | +5.1% |
GM GM General Motors Company | $71.5B | 6.2x | +1.7% | 1.4% | Buy | +18.3% |
STL STLA Stellantis N.V. | $18.4B | 8.6x | +4.9% | -6.2% | Hold | +66.6% |
TSL TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $1.50T | 212.2x | +8.2% | 4.0% | Hold | +12.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
HMC Dividend and Capital Return
HMC returns capital mainly through $710.7B/year in buybacks (13.0% buyback yield), with a modest 5.37% dividend — combining for 18.4% total shareholder yield.
Dividend UnknownFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
18.4%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
13.0%
Dividend Yield
5.37%
Payout Ratio
—
How HMC Splits Its Return
Div 5.37%
Buyback 13.0%
Dividend 5.37%Buybacks 13.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$226.31
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
14.0%
5Y Div CAGR
12.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$710.7B
Estimated Shares Retired
27.1B
Approx. Share Reduction
2085.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
1.3B
At 2085.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.65 | — | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2025 | $1.39 | -2.2% | 11.2% | 16.6% |
| 2024 | $1.42 | +39.2% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2023 | $1.02 | +8.7% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2022 | $0.94 | -3.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsHMC Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 5 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 12 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $32, implying +20.0% from the current price of $26. The bear case scenario is $1305 and the bull case is $2728.
02What is the HMC stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for HMC is $32 based on 18 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $32 (+20.0% from today), and the low-end target is $32 (+20.0%). The base case model target is $2071.
03Is Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) stock overvalued in 2026?
HMC trades at 0.1x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for HMC in 2026 are: (1) Strategic Realignment Uncertainty — Honda's 'Great Reset' strategic shift, including moving away from its EV focus, has created uncertainty about its future direction and competitiveness. (2) Investor Confidence Erosion — Amended filings by key executives regarding beneficial ownership have led to investor uncertainty and lack of confidence, contributing to bearish market movements. (3) Market Sentiment Shift — Recent stock performance and analyst coverage suggest a shift in market sentiment, with potential concerns over Honda's ability to maintain its market position. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Honda Motor Co., Ltd.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates HMC will report consensus revenue of $23.48T (+6.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $-69.70 (+78.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $24.75T in revenue.
06When does Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) report its next earnings?
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $0.72 and revenue of $36.2B. Over recent quarters, HMC has beaten EPS estimates 80% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Honda Motor Co., Ltd. generate?
Honda Motor Co., Ltd. (HMC) generated $512.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 2.3%. HMC returns capital to shareholders through dividends (5.4% yield) and share repurchases ($710.7B TTM).