Upside case
Bull case
$373+65.0%
FCFS would need investors to value it at roughly 35x earnings — about 14x more generous than today's 21x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
FirstCash Holdings, Inc (FCFS) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
19
analysts
9 bullish · 0 bearish · 19 covering FCFS
Strong Buy
0
Buy
9
Hold
10
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$252
+11.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$166 – $373
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
21.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $10.0B
FCFS price targets
Three scenarios for where FCFS stock could go
Current
~$226
Confidence
62 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $226
Bear
$166
Base
$269
Bull
$373
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$269+19.0%
At 25x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$166-26.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push FCFS down roughly 27% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
FirstCash Holdings, Inc
FCFS · NASDAQFinancial ServicesFinancial - Credit ServicesDecember year-end
FirstCash Holdings operates a large network of pawn shops across the Americas that provide short-term collateralized loans and sell forfeited merchandise. It generates revenue primarily from pawn loan interest and fees (roughly 70% of total) and retail sales of forfeited collateral and purchased goods (about 30%). The company's competitive advantage lies in its extensive physical footprint—over 2,800 stores—and operational expertise in managing the pawn lending cycle across diverse markets.
Market Cap
$10.0B
Net Income TTM
$354M
FCFS Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.79/$1.66
Revenue
$831M/$820M
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.26/$1.94
Revenue
$936M/$861M
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.64/$2.54
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.69/$2.33
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.79/$1.66 | +7.8% | $831M/$820M | +1.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.26/$1.94 | +16.5% | $936M/$861M | +8.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.64/$2.54 | +3.9% | $1.1B/$1.0B | +3.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.69/$2.33 | +15.5% | $1.1B/$1.0B | +4.8% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.0B
+9.3% YoY
FY2
$4.3B
+8.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.98
-0.3% YoY
FY2
$8.83
+10.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$553M
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FCFS beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FCFS Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.6B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
US Pawn Segment
66.8%
+11.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
74.7%
+1.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
US Pawn Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 66.8% of FY 2025 revenue, up 11.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 74.7%, up 1.7% YoY.
FCFS Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $98 — implies -55.5% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
55.5%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FCFS
30.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
+21% premium
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
FCFS
30.5x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
+128% premium
vs FCFS 5Y Avg P/E
Today
30.5x
vs
5Y Average
20.6x
+48% premium
Forward PE
21.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
+10%
Financial Services
10.5x
+100%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
30.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
+21%
Financial Services
13.4x
+128%
5Y Avg
20.6x
+48%
PEG Ratio
1.29x
S&P 500
1.75x
-26%
Financial Services
1.03x
+25%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
12.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
-16%
Financial Services
11.4x
+12%
5Y Avg
9.8x
+30%
Price/FCF
21.3x
S&P 500
21.3x
-0%
Financial Services
10.6x
+100%
5Y Avg
13.1x
+63%
Price/Sales
2.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-13%
Financial Services
2.3x
+21%
5Y Avg
1.6x
+66%
Dividend Yield
0.70%
S&P 500
1.88%
-63%
Financial Services
2.68%
-74%
5Y Avg
1.33%
-47%
| Metric | FCFS | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg FCFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 21.0x | 19.1x+10% | 10.5x+100% | — |
| Trailing PE | 30.5x | 25.2x+21% | 13.4x+128% | 20.6x+48% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.29x | 1.75x-26% | 1.03x+25% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.8x | 15.3x-16% | 11.4x+12% | 9.8x+30% |
| Price/FCF | 21.3x | 21.3x | 10.6x+100% | 13.1x+63% |
| Price/Sales | 2.7x | 3.1x-13% | 2.3x+21% | 1.6x+66% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.70% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 1.33% |
FCFS trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFCFS Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
FCFS generates 15.9% ROE and 7.0% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.01
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
15.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
9.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$125M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.7B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
15.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
1.9%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
1.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$116M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.59
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
21.5%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
44M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageFCFS Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic Risks
Economic downturns in the U.S., Latin America, and the U.K. could significantly reduce consumer spending and demand for FCFS's products. Specific concerns include inflation, elevated interest rates, and increased energy costs, which could adversely affect the company's financial performance.
High Risk
Regulatory and Legal Risks
FCFS faces potential regulatory scrutiny, particularly regarding its pawn and retail POS payment models. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has issued rules affecting small-dollar loans, which could indirectly impact FCFS's operations.
High Risk
Operational and Business Risks
Cybersecurity incidents pose a significant risk to FCFS, as the company must prevent cyberattacks and disruptions to its IT systems. Any breach could lead to financial losses and damage to the company's reputation.
Medium
Competitive Risks
FCFS is under pressure from increasing competition in both the retail payment solutions and consumer lending markets. This competitive landscape could limit the company's market share and profitability.
Medium
Labor Shortages and Costs
Labor shortages and rising labor costs present operational challenges for FCFS. These factors could lead to increased expenses and hinder the company's ability to maintain service levels.
Lower
Currency Fluctuations
FCFS is exposed to currency risks, particularly with the Mexican peso and British pound sterling. Fluctuations in these currencies could impact the company's financial results, although the overall effect may be limited.
Lower
Commodity Risks
Pawn lending is subject to commodity risks, especially regarding gold prices. While rising gold prices can benefit FCFS, they also introduce volatility that could affect the company's lending operations.
Lower
Expansion and M&A Activity
FCFS's plans for expansion in Europe and focus on mergers and acquisitions carry inherent risks. These activities may not yield the expected returns and could strain the company's resources.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FCFS Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Revenue Growth
FirstCash Holdings reported total revenues of $1.05 billion in Q1 2026, surpassing analyst expectations. The company achieved record revenue, net income, and EPS, with a 26% increase compared to the same period last year.
Margin Expansion
The net profit margin has improved to 9% from 7.6% a year earlier, indicating that more revenue is translating to the bottom line. This margin expansion reflects the company's ability to enhance profitability.
Consistent Earnings Growth
Trailing twelve-month earnings growth stands at 27.6%, which is above the 19.6% annual growth rate reported over the last five years. Analysts project about 15.8% annual earnings growth for the future, suggesting sustained performance.
Operational Efficiency
The company has a high profitability rank of 9/10, suggesting strong operational efficiency and effective cost management. This ranking indicates that FirstCash is well-positioned to maintain its competitive edge.
Market Position and Expansion
FirstCash operates a large network of over 3,800 stores across the U.S., Latin America, and the U.K., with potential for further expansion. The company is also exploring new markets and has made recent acquisitions, including in the UK.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FCFS Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$226.38
52W Range Position
99%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$119.21
+89.9% from the low
52-Week High
$227.42
-0.5% from the high
1 Month
+18.90%
3 Month
+24.44%
YTD
+44.4%
1 Year
+68.7%
3Y CAGR
+29.7%
5Y CAGR
+25.1%
10Y CAGR
+16.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FCFS vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
21.0x
vs 18.7x median
+13% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.3%
vs +11.7% median
-20% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCF FCFS FirstCash Holdings, Inc | $10.0B | 21.0x | +9.3% | — | Hold | +11.3% |
EZP EZPW EZCORP, Inc. | $2.0B | 18.7x | +11.7% | — | Buy | -18.5% |
WRL WRLD World Acceptance Corporation | $751M | 21.1x | -0.9% | — | Hold | — |
RM RM Regional Management Corp. | $329M | 6.3x | +9.1% | — | Hold | — |
ENV ENVA Enova International, Inc. | $4.3B | 10.5x | +18.8% | — | Buy | +15.6% |
V V Visa Inc. | $611.6B | 24.4x | +12.6% | — | Buy | +13.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FCFS Dividend and Capital Return
FCFS returns capital mainly through $116M/year in buybacks (1.2% buyback yield), with a modest 0.70% dividend — combining for 1.9% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 10 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
1.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.2%
Dividend Yield
0.70%
Payout Ratio
21.5%
How FCFS Splits Its Return
Div 0.70%
Buyback 1.2%
Dividend 0.70%Buybacks 1.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.59
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
10Y
3Y Div CAGR
8.3%
5Y Div CAGR
8.2%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$116M
Estimated Shares Retired
511.7K
Approx. Share Reduction
1.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
44M
At 1.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.84 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.60 | +9.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% |
| 2024 | $1.46 | +7.4% | 1.8% | 3.2% |
| 2023 | $1.36 | +7.9% | 2.3% | 3.6% |
| 2022 | $1.26 | +7.7% | 3.8% | 5.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsFCFS Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is FirstCash Holdings, Inc (FCFS) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
FirstCash Holdings, Inc (FCFS) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 10 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $252, implying +11.3% from the current price of $226. The bear case scenario is $166 and the bull case is $373.
02What is the FCFS stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FCFS is $252 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $252 (+11.3% from today), and the low-end target is $252 (+11.3%). The base case model target is $269.
03Is FirstCash Holdings, Inc (FCFS) stock overvalued in 2026?
FCFS trades at 21.0x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for FirstCash Holdings, Inc (FCFS) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FCFS in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic Risks — Economic downturns in the U. (2) Regulatory and Legal Risks — FCFS faces potential regulatory scrutiny, particularly regarding its pawn and retail POS payment models. (3) Operational and Business Risks — Cybersecurity incidents pose a significant risk to FCFS, as the company must prevent cyberattacks and disruptions to its IT systems. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is FirstCash Holdings, Inc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FCFS will report consensus revenue of $4.0B (+9.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.98 (-0.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.3B in revenue.
06When does FirstCash Holdings, Inc (FCFS) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FCFS is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does FirstCash Holdings, Inc generate?
FirstCash Holdings, Inc (FCFS) generated $553M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. FCFS returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($116M TTM).