Upside case
Bull case
$18488+828.4%
FCNCA would need investors to value it at roughly 104x earnings — about 93x more generous than today's 11x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
11
analysts
4 bullish · 0 bearish · 11 covering FCNCA
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
7
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$2234
+12.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$2857 – $18488
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
11
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
11.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $23.1B
FCNCA price targets
Three scenarios for where FCNCA stock could go
Current
~$1991
Confidence
33 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $1991
Bear
$2857
Base
$3853
Bull
$18488
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$3853+93.5%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$2857+43.5%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push FCNCA down roughly 43% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
First Citizens BancShares, Inc.
FCNCA · NASDAQFinancial ServicesBanks - RegionalDecember year-end
First Citizens BancShares is a regional bank holding company that provides traditional retail and commercial banking services through its branch network. It makes money primarily from net interest income — the spread between what it pays on deposits and earns on loans — supplemented by fee-based services like wealth management and treasury services. Its competitive advantage stems from its established regional presence, conservative lending practices, and the stability gained through strategic acquisitions of failed banks — most notably its 2023 acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank's assets.
Market Cap
$23.1B
Net Income TTM
$2.2B
FCNCA Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+10.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$44.78/$39.71
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$44.62/$41.87
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.2B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.51/$0.44
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.2B
Q2 2026
EPS
$44.86/$39.02
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.2B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $44.78/$39.71 | +12.8% | $2.4B/$2.2B | +8.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $44.62/$41.87 | +6.6% | $2.4B/$2.2B | +9.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.51/$0.44 | +16.5% | $2.4B/$2.2B | +7.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $44.86/$39.02 | +15.0% | $2.2B/$2.2B | +3.2% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$12.7B
-12.7% YoY
FY2
$12.7B
+0.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$304.54
+70.7% YoY
FY2
$320.73
+5.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.1B
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
FCNCA beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
FCNCA Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $942M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Deposit Fees and Service Charges
25.6%
+4.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Deposit Fees and Service Charges is the largest disclosed segment at 25.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.8% YoY.
FCNCA Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $2351 — implies +18.4% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
18.4%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FCNCA
12.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
52% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
FCNCA
12.0x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
10% discount
vs FCNCA 5Y Avg P/E
Today
12.0x
vs
5Y Average
10.5x
+14% premium
Forward PE
11.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-41%
Financial Services
10.5x
+7%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
12.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-52%
Financial Services
13.4x
-10%
5Y Avg
10.5x
+14%
PEG Ratio
0.42x
S&P 500
1.75x
-76%
Financial Services
1.03x
-59%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
11.3x
S&P 500
15.3x
-26%
Financial Services
11.4x
-1%
5Y Avg
6.8x
+66%
Price/FCF
11.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
-48%
Financial Services
10.6x
+5%
5Y Avg
14.2x
-21%
Price/Sales
1.6x
S&P 500
3.1x
-49%
Financial Services
2.3x
-29%
5Y Avg
2.4x
-34%
Dividend Yield
0.65%
S&P 500
1.88%
-65%
Financial Services
2.68%
-76%
5Y Avg
0.58%
+12%
| Metric | FCNCA | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg FCNCA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 11.3x | 19.1x-41% | 10.5x | — |
| Trailing PE | 12.0x | 25.2x-52% | 13.4x-10% | 10.5x+14% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.42x | 1.75x-76% | 1.03x-59% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.3x | 15.3x-26% | 11.4x | 6.8x+66% |
| Price/FCF | 11.2x | 21.3x-48% | 10.6x | 14.2x-21% |
| Price/Sales | 1.6x | 3.1x-49% | 2.3x-29% | 2.4x-34% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.65% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 0.58% |
FCNCA trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFCNCA Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
FCNCA generates 9.9% ROE and 1.0% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$178.44
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
9.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
3.8%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
1.0%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$20.6B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$15.4B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
9.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
13.7%
Dividend
0.7%
Buyback
13.1%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$3.0B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$13.02
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
7.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
12M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageFCNCA Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Net interest income risk
First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) may experience decreases in net interest income and net interest margin due to a smaller balance sheet and reduced yields on assets. This could significantly impact the bank's profitability and financial stability.
High Risk
Deposit contraction
The bank has faced a contraction in end-of-period deposits, which poses a challenge to its strategy for repaying debt using low-cost funding. A continued decline in deposits could severely affect liquidity and operational capabilities.
Medium
Economic and geopolitical risks
FCNCA's financial outlook may be adversely affected by general competitive and economic conditions, as well as political and geopolitical events. Potential impacts from U.S. government shutdowns or international conflicts could lead to material differences from forward-looking statements.
Medium
Expense growth and buyback pace
While credit trends are improving, an anticipated slower pace of share buybacks and increasing expenses could negatively impact the company's stock performance. This could lead to investor dissatisfaction and affect market confidence.
Lower
Technical analysis volatility
FCNCA shows mixed signals from technical analysis, with some indicators suggesting a 'Buy' while others indicate 'Sell' or 'Neutral.' The stock has experienced daily average volatility around 3.19% over the past week, which may lead to uncertain trading patterns.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FCNCA Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strategic Acquisitions Boost Growth
The acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is expected to enhance liquidity, facilitating accelerated repayment of notes and a quicker recovery of net interest margin (NIM). Additionally, the merger with Park National Corporation was overwhelmingly approved by shareholders, with expectations of boosting shareholder value and enhancing dividends.
Strong Financial Performance
First Citizens BancShares has demonstrated strong loan growth, particularly from global fund banking, indicating resilience in its financial performance. Recent results show significant revenue and net income growth, reflecting a strong upward trajectory.
Consistent Dividend Increases
The company has a history of increasing its dividend for eight consecutive years, showcasing a commitment to returning capital to shareholders. This consistent dividend growth is a positive indicator of financial health and shareholder value.
Robust Capital Position
First Citizens BancShares maintains a strong capital position and liquidity, which provides stability and resilience in a fluctuating market. This solid foundation supports ongoing growth initiatives and strategic investments.
Positive Analyst Sentiment
Analysts have shown confidence in FCNCA with a consensus rating of 'Buy', indicating optimism about the stock's future performance. Upgrades from some analysts further signal potential for growth.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FCNCA Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$1991.33
52W Range Position
60%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$1623.76
+22.6% from the low
52-Week High
$2232.21
-10.8% from the high
1 Month
+3.28%
3 Month
-7.85%
YTD
-7.8%
1 Year
+12.0%
3Y CAGR
+22.2%
5Y CAGR
+18.8%
10Y CAGR
+23.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FCNCA vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
11.3x
vs 12.2x median
-8% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-12.7%
vs -1.5% median
-763% below peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FCN FCNCA First Citizens BancShares, Inc. | $23.1B | 11.3x | -12.7% | — | Hold | +12.2% |
HBA HBAN Huntington Bancshares Incorporated | $26.3B | 11.4x | -1.5% | — | Buy | +22.5% |
CFG CFG Citizens Financial Group, Inc. | $28.3B | 12.7x | -9.7% | — | Buy | +10.4% |
RF RF Regions Financial Corporation | $24.5B | 10.8x | -7.9% | — | Hold | +9.1% |
FIT FITB Fifth Third Bancorp | $34.1B | 16.5x | +2.0% | — | Buy | +11.1% |
KEY KEY KeyCorp | $24.5B | 12.2x | +1.2% | — | Buy | +4.0% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FCNCA Dividend and Capital Return
FCNCA returns capital mainly through $3.0B/year in buybacks (13.1% buyback yield), with a modest 0.65% dividend — combining for 13.7% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 9 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
13.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
13.1%
Dividend Yield
0.65%
Payout Ratio
7.3%
How FCNCA Splits Its Return
Buyback 13.1%
Dividend 0.65%Buybacks 13.1%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$13.02
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
9Y
3Y Div CAGR
54.4%
5Y Div CAGR
36.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$3.0B
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
13.1%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
12M
At 13.1%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $4.20 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $7.95 | +15.7% | 11.4% | 12.0% |
| 2024 | $6.87 | +76.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% |
| 2023 | $3.89 | +80.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 2022 | $2.16 | +14.9% | 10.5% | 11.2% |
FAQ
7 questionsFCNCA Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 11 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 7 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $2234, implying +12.2% from the current price of $1991. The bear case scenario is $2857 and the bull case is $18488.
02What is the FCNCA stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FCNCA is $2234 based on 11 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $2346 (+17.8% from today), and the low-end target is $2050 (+2.9%). The base case model target is $3853.
03Is First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) stock overvalued in 2026?
FCNCA trades at 11.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FCNCA in 2026 are: (1) Net interest income risk — First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA) may experience decreases in net interest income and net interest margin due to a smaller balance sheet and reduced yields on assets. (2) Deposit contraction — The bank has faced a contraction in end-of-period deposits, which poses a challenge to its strategy for repaying debt using low-cost funding. (3) Economic and geopolitical risks — FCNCA's financial outlook may be adversely affected by general competitive and economic conditions, as well as political and geopolitical events. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is First Citizens BancShares, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FCNCA will report consensus revenue of $12.7B (-12.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $304.54 (+70.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $12.7B in revenue.
06When does First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for FCNCA is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does First Citizens BancShares, Inc. generate?
First Citizens BancShares, Inc. (FCNCA) generated $2.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. FCNCA returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.7% yield) and share repurchases ($3.0B TTM).