Upside case
Bull case
$92+0.9%
FWONK would need investors to value it at roughly 54x earnings — about 0x more generous than today's 53x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Formula One Group (FWONK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
24
analysts
17 bullish · 1 bearish · 24 covering FWONK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
6
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$116
+27.5% vs today
Scenario Range
$44 – $92
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
53.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $22.7B
FWONK price targets
Three scenarios for where FWONK stock could go
Current
~$91
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $91
Bear
$44
Base
$70
Bull
$92
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$70-23.4%
At 41x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$44-51.7%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 28x multiple contraction could push FWONK down roughly 52% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Formula One Group
FWONK · NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentDecember year-end
Formula One Group is the commercial rights holder for the global Formula 1 motorsport championship. It generates revenue primarily from race promotion fees (about 30%), media rights sales (about 35%), and sponsorship deals (about 20%), with the remainder from hospitality and other sources. Its key moat is the exclusive, long-term commercial rights to the world's premier motorsport series — a globally recognized brand with high barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$22.7B
Revenue TTM
$4.7B
Net Income TTM
$607M
Net Margin
12.8%
FWONK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
55%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
33%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+85.0%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.52/$0.81
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.24/$0.42
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.39/$0.40
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.03/$-0.06
Revenue
$711M/$683M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.52/$0.81 | +87.7% | $1.3B/$1.0B | +29.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.24/$0.42 | -42.9% | $1.1B/$1.5B | -30.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.39/$0.40 | -1.6% | $1.6B/$1.6B | +3.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.03/$-0.06 | +150.0% | $711M/$683M | +4.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.1B
+8.0% YoY
FY2
$5.4B
+5.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.88
-22.6% YoY
FY2
$1.68
-10.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$730M
FCF Margin: 15.4%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.25
Expected Revenue
$964M
FWONK beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
FWONK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $3.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Formula 1
90.8%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Formula 1 is the largest disclosed segment at 90.8% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
FWONK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $175 — implies +93.0% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
93.0%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FWONK
42.2x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+73% premium
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
FWONK
42.2x
vs
Communication Services
15.3x
+176% premium
vs FWONK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
42.2x
vs
5Y Average
51.0x
17% discount
Forward PE
53.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
+183%
Communication Services
11.3x
+370%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
42.2x
S&P 500
24.4x
+73%
Communication Services
15.3x
+176%
5Y Avg
51.0x
-17%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Communication Services
0.64x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
26.9x
S&P 500
15.2x
+77%
Communication Services
9.6x
+180%
5Y Avg
30.9x
-13%
Price/FCF
30.3x
S&P 500
20.7x
+46%
Communication Services
11.4x
+166%
5Y Avg
49.0x
-38%
Price/Sales
5.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+64%
Communication Services
1.0x
+398%
5Y Avg
5.7x
-11%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Communication Services
3.43%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | FWONK | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg FWONK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 53.2x | 18.8x+183% | 11.3x+370% | — |
| Trailing PE | 42.2x | 24.4x+73% | 15.3x+176% | 51.0x-17% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 0.64x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 26.9x | 15.2x+77% | 9.6x+180% | 30.9x-13% |
| Price/FCF | 30.3x | 20.7x+46% | 11.4x+166% | 49.0x-38% |
| Price/Sales | 5.1x | 3.1x+64% | 1.0x+398% | 5.7x-11% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 3.43% | — |
FWONK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 5 of 5 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFWONK Financial Health
Verdict
Adequate
FWONK generates $730M in free cash flow at a 15.4% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$4.7B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+35.1%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
27.3%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
15.6%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
12.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$2.43
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$730M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
15.4%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
4.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.9%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
5.6× FCF
~5.6 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
7.4%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
251M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFWONK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Finance & Corporate Risks
Liberty Media Liberty Formula One disclosed 106 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, with the majority concentrated in the 'Finance & Corporate' category.
Medium
Earnings Uncertainty
The projected EPS for the next fiscal year carries a low confidence score of 40/100, reflecting uncertainty in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends.
Lower
Market Saturation
While Formula One Group has shown strong year-on-year profitability growth, there may be risks related to market saturation as the business expands its commercial footprint.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FWONK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong revenue and earnings growth
Formula One Group reported sharply higher revenue and net income, indicating improved earnings power from its commercial footprint and content portfolio.
Transformative growth potential
The bullish thesis emphasizes transformative growth and revenue diversification opportunities within Formula One Group.
Premier global motorsport brand
Formula 1 is considered the pinnacle of motorsport, with a prestigious global championship that attracts significant viewership and commercial interest.
Live streaming service expansion
The introduction of F1 Live Grand Prix Streaming Service enhances content accessibility and monetization potential.
Positive stock performance
The stock has appreciated significantly, reflecting investor confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FWONK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$90.76
52W Range Position
36%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$80.15
+13.2% from the low
52-Week High
$109.36
-17.0% from the high
1 Month
-0.25%
3 Month
+6.55%
YTD
-7.4%
1 Year
-11.0%
3Y CAGR
+5.9%
5Y CAGR
+15.8%
10Y CAGR
+17.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FWONK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
53.2x
vs 65.3x median
-19% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+8.0%
vs +9.7% median
-18% below peer median
Net Margin
12.8%
vs 0.9% median
+1272% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FWO FWONK Formula One Group | $22.7B | 53.2x | +8.0% | 12.8% | Buy | +27.5% |
TKO TKO TKO Group Holdings, Inc. | $38.7B | 42.4x | +13.0% | 7.6% | Buy | +18.8% |
MSG MSGE Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. | $3.5B | 65.3x | +3.0% | 4.8% | Buy | -6.0% |
LYV LYV Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. | $39.8B | — | +10.1% | 0.3% | Buy | +8.5% |
MSG MSGS Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. | $8.9B | — | +4.0% | -2.1% | Buy | +10.0% |
DKN DKNG DraftKings Inc. | $13.1B | 111.8x | +9.7% | 0.9% | Buy | +35.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FWONK Dividend and Capital Return
FWONK does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
251M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $1.23 | — | 0.1% | 0.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsFWONK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Formula One Group (FWONK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Formula One Group (FWONK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $116, implying +27.5% from the current price of $91. The bear case scenario is $44 and the bull case is $92.
02What is the FWONK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FWONK is $116 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $124 (+36.6% from today), and the low-end target is $104 (+14.6%). The base case model target is $70.
03Is Formula One Group (FWONK) stock overvalued in 2026?
FWONK trades at 53.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Formula One Group (FWONK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FWONK in 2026 are: (1) Finance & Corporate Risks — Liberty Media Liberty Formula One disclosed 106 risk factors in its most recent earnings report, with the majority concentrated in the 'Finance & Corporate' category. (2) Earnings Uncertainty — The projected EPS for the next fiscal year carries a low confidence score of 40/100, reflecting uncertainty in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends. (3) Market Saturation — While Formula One Group has shown strong year-on-year profitability growth, there may be risks related to market saturation as the business expands its commercial footprint. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Formula One Group's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FWONK will report consensus revenue of $5.1B (+8.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.88 (-22.6% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $5.4B in revenue.
06When does Formula One Group (FWONK) report its next earnings?
Formula One Group is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.25 and revenue of $964M. Over recent quarters, FWONK has beaten EPS estimates 55% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Formula One Group generate?
Formula One Group (FWONK) generated $730M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 15.4%. FWONK returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).