Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing FWONK more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Formula One Group (FWONK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
24
analysts
17 bullish · 1 bearish · 24 covering FWONK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
17
Hold
6
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$116
+31.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
24
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
54.5x
Forward P/E · Market cap $19.8B
FWONK price targets
Three scenarios for where FWONK stock could go
Current
~$89
Confidence
41 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Formula One Group
FWONK · NASDAQCommunication ServicesEntertainmentDecember year-end
Formula One Group is the commercial rights holder for the global Formula 1 motorsport championship. It generates revenue primarily from race promotion fees (about 30%), media rights sales (about 35%), and sponsorship deals (about 20%), with the remainder from hospitality and other sources. Its key moat is the exclusive, long-term commercial rights to the world's premier motorsport series — a globally recognized brand with high barriers to entry.
Market Cap
$19.8B
Revenue TTM
$1.0B
Net Income TTM
$449M
Net Margin
43.8%
FWONK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
45%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+21.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$0.05/$-0.18
Revenue
$447M/$1.3B
Q3 2025
EPS
$1.52/$0.81
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.0B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.24/$0.42
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.5B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.39/$0.40
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $0.05/$-0.18 | +127.8% | $447M/$1.3B | -64.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.52/$0.81 | +87.7% | $1.3B/$1.0B | +29.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.24/$0.42 | -42.9% | $1.1B/$1.5B | -30.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.39/$0.40 | -1.6% | $1.6B/$1.6B | +3.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$1.4B
+34.8% YoY
FY2
$1.2B
-12.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$1.40
— YoY
FY2
$1.11
-20.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$279M
FCF Margin: 27.3%
Next Earnings
May 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.07
Expected Revenue
$683M
FWONK beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
FWONK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $3.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Formula 1
90.8%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Formula 1 is the largest disclosed segment at 90.8% of FY 2024 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 100.0%, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
FWONK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Fairly Valued
Fair value est. $86 — implies -2.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
2.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
FWONK
—
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
Benchmark unavailable
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
FWONK
—
vs
Communication Services
15.5x
Benchmark unavailable
vs FWONK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
—
vs
5Y Average
64.6x
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
54.5x
S&P 500
19.1x
+186%
Communication Services
13.1x
+317%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
—
S&P 500
25.2x
—
Communication Services
15.5x
—
5Y Avg
64.6x
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Communication Services
0.66x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Communication Services
8.7x
—
5Y Avg
31.4x
—
Price/FCF
21.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
+2%
Communication Services
11.6x
+88%
5Y Avg
53.0x
-59%
Price/Sales
—
S&P 500
3.1x
—
Communication Services
1.0x
—
5Y Avg
5.8x
—
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Communication Services
3.38%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | FWONK | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg FWONK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 54.5x | 19.1x+186% | 13.1x+317% | — |
| Trailing PE | — | 25.2x | 15.5x | 64.6x |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.66x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 8.7x | 31.4x |
| Price/FCF | 21.8x | 21.3x | 11.6x+88% | 53.0x-59% |
| Price/Sales | — | 3.1x | 1.0x | 5.8x |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 3.38% | — |
FWONK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolFWONK Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
FWONK generates $279M in free cash flow at a 27.3% margin.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$1.0B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-72.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
-18.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-3.4%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
43.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
—
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$279M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
27.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
—
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
42.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.1B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$1.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
223M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageFWONK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Operational and Contractual Risks
The company's operations are heavily dependent on the popularity of Formula 1. A decline in its appeal or unforeseen events could significantly impact revenue, especially given the recent volatility in viewership.
High Risk
External and Macroeconomic Factors
External factors such as pandemics and geopolitical instability pose substantial risks to the company's cash flows and market expansion. A 'risk-off' sentiment driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation could further pressure stock performance.
High Risk
Financial and Investment Risks
The completion of acquisitions is contingent on various regulatory approvals, creating uncertainty about whether these deals will close as planned. This uncertainty can affect investor confidence and stock valuation.
Medium
Contract Disputes
Potential disputes related to Formula 1 contracts could disrupt operations and revenue streams. The ramifications of such disputes could lead to significant financial losses.
Medium
Market Sentiment and Economic Conditions
The stock price is susceptible to broader economic conditions, including interest rates and inflation. Analysts have mixed views on the stock, which can lead to volatility in market sentiment.
Lower
Profit-Taking and Volatility
Following a recent price increase, there is a risk of profit-taking that could lead to intraday volatility. This could create short-term fluctuations in the stock price.
Lower
Mixed Analyst Ratings
While the consensus rating is generally positive, the presence of 'Hold' or 'Sell' ratings from some analysts indicates differing views on the stock's future performance.
Lower
No Voting Rights
FWONK shareholders have no voting rights except as mandated by Delaware law, which may limit their influence on corporate governance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why FWONK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Contracted Revenue and Growth Catalysts
FWONK has significant contracted future revenue, providing a stable base. Strategic growth catalysts include the recent MotoGP acquisition, the planned 2026 entry of the Cadillac F1 team, and new venues like the Madrid Grand Prix, expected to expand the addressable audience and unlock diversified revenue streams.
Accelerating Consumer Engagement
Alternative data indicates a surge in consumer engagement, with a 10% year-over-year increase in TV ratings and a 20% rise in average viewership. The U.S. market has shown particularly strong performance, with most races achieving year-over-year viewership growth and many setting record numbers.
Synergies and Audience Expansion
The MotoGP acquisition is projected to generate 15-20% in cost synergies and expand FWONK's audience by 40%, supporting high-margin digital and hospitality growth.
Premium Content and Streaming Deals
A landmark five-year partnership with Apple for exclusive streaming rights, starting in 2026, is estimated to be worth approximately $750 million, significantly higher than the current ESPN deal. This deal is expected to elevate the sport's reach and engagement.
Financial Performance
Recent earnings reports have shown positive results, with earnings per share beating analyst estimates and revenue growth across all streams, including sponsorship, media rights, and race promotion. The F1 TV subscription service is also experiencing rapid growth, particularly in emerging markets.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
FWONK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$88.66
52W Range Position
29%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$80.15
+10.6% from the low
52-Week High
$109.36
-18.9% from the high
1 Month
+2.85%
3 Month
+4.00%
YTD
-9.6%
1 Year
-3.0%
3Y CAGR
+6.9%
5Y CAGR
+14.6%
10Y CAGR
+16.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
FWONK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
54.5x
vs 75.5x median
-28% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+34.8%
vs +16.5% median
+111% above peer median
Net Margin
43.8%
vs 0.3% median
+13321% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FWO FWONK Formula One Group | $19.8B | 54.5x | +34.8% | 43.8% | Buy | +31.2% |
TKO TKO TKO Group Holdings, Inc. | $37.1B | 38.7x | +31.5% | 7.6% | Buy | +24.3% |
MSG MSGE Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. | $2.7B | 57.0x | +4.4% | 5.1% | Buy | -1.0% |
LYV LYV Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. | $39.0B | 116.8x | +16.5% | 0.3% | Buy | +7.9% |
MSG MSGS Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. | $8.1B | — | +3.5% | -1.5% | Buy | +8.6% |
DKN DKNG DraftKings Inc. | $11.9B | 94.0x | +25.4% | 0.1% | Buy | +54.2% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FWONK Dividend and Capital Return
FWONK does not currently return meaningful capital to shareholders.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.0%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
223M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $1.23 | — | 0.1% | 0.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsFWONK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Formula One Group (FWONK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Formula One Group (FWONK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 24 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $116, implying +31.2% from the current price of $89.
02What is the FWONK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for FWONK is $116 based on 24 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $124 (+39.9% from today), and the low-end target is $104 (+17.3%).
03Is Formula One Group (FWONK) stock overvalued in 2026?
FWONK trades at 54.5x times forward earnings. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals fairly valued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Formula One Group (FWONK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for FWONK in 2026 are: (1) Operational and Contractual Risks — The company's operations are heavily dependent on the popularity of Formula 1. (2) External and Macroeconomic Factors — External factors such as pandemics and geopolitical instability pose substantial risks to the company's cash flows and market expansion. (3) Financial and Investment Risks — The completion of acquisitions is contingent on various regulatory approvals, creating uncertainty about whether these deals will close as planned. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Formula One Group's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates FWONK will report consensus revenue of $1.4B (+34.8% year-over-year) and EPS of $1.40 for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.2B in revenue.
06When does Formula One Group (FWONK) report its next earnings?
Formula One Group is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-06. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.07 and revenue of $683M. Over recent quarters, FWONK has beaten EPS estimates 45% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Formula One Group generate?
Formula One Group (FWONK) generated $279M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 27.3%. FWONK returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).