Upside case
Bull case
$137-31.2%
The bull case prices TKO at 29x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
19
analysts
16 bullish · 0 bearish · 19 covering TKO
Strong Buy
0
Buy
16
Hold
3
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$236
+18.8% vs today
Scenario Range
$65 – $137
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
42.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $38.7B
TKO price targets
Three scenarios for where TKO stock could go
Current
~$199
Confidence
48 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $199
Bear
$65
Base
$104
Bull
$137
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$104-47.8%
At 22x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$65-67.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 28x multiple contraction could push TKO down roughly 67% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
TKO Group Holdings, Inc.
TKO · NYSECommunication ServicesEntertainmentDecember year-end
TKO Group Holdings is a sports and entertainment company that operates major professional wrestling promotions including WWE and UFC. It generates revenue primarily from media rights deals and content distribution (~60%), live event ticket sales and merchandise (~25%), and sponsorships and advertising (~15%). The company's moat lies in its ownership of iconic, globally recognized wrestling and mixed martial arts brands with decades of fan loyalty and extensive content libraries.
Market Cap
$38.7B
Revenue TTM
$5.1B
Net Income TTM
$385M
Net Margin
7.6%
TKO Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+29.7%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.17/$1.16
Revenue
$1.3B/$1.2B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.50/$0.59
Revenue
$1.1B/$1.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.08/$0.24
Revenue
$1.0B/$1.0B
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.12/$1.11
Revenue
$1.6B/$1.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.17/$1.16 | +0.9% | $1.3B/$1.2B | +6.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.50/$0.59 | -14.7% | $1.1B/$1.1B | +0.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.08/$0.24 | -133.7% | $1.0B/$1.0B | +1.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.12/$1.11 | +0.9% | $1.6B/$1.6B | +0.3% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$5.7B
+13.0% YoY
FY2
$6.1B
+6.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.37
+19.7% YoY
FY2
$2.31
-2.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.7B
FCF Margin: 34.6%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.53
Expected Revenue
$1.6B
TKO beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
TKO Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
North America
74.2%
+62.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
North America is the largest reported region at 74.2%, up 62.2% YoY.
TKO Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Limited: Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $641 — implies +222.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
222.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
TKO
88.0x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+260% premium
vs Communication Services Trailing P/E
TKO
88.0x
vs
Communication Services
15.3x
+475% premium
vs TKO 5Y Avg P/E
Today
88.0x
vs
5Y Average
43.6x
+102% premium
Forward PE
42.4x
S&P 500
18.8x
+125%
Communication Services
11.3x
+274%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
88.0x
S&P 500
24.4x
+260%
Communication Services
15.3x
+475%
5Y Avg
43.6x
+102%
PEG Ratio
73.79x
S&P 500
1.66x
+4347%
Communication Services
0.64x
+11380%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
29.0x
S&P 500
15.2x
+91%
Communication Services
9.6x
+201%
5Y Avg
19.6x
+48%
Price/FCF
33.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
+61%
Communication Services
11.4x
+193%
5Y Avg
28.0x
+19%
Price/Sales
8.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+164%
Communication Services
1.0x
+702%
5Y Avg
6.0x
+36%
Dividend Yield
1.66%
S&P 500
1.91%
-13%
Communication Services
3.43%
-52%
5Y Avg
5.27%
-68%
| Metric | TKO | S&P 500 | Communication Services | 5Y Avg TKO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 42.4x | 18.8x+125% | 11.3x+274% | — |
| Trailing PE | 88.0x | 24.4x+260% | 15.3x+475% | 43.6x+102% |
| PEG Ratio | 73.79x | 1.66x+4347% | 0.64x+11380% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.0x | 15.2x+91% | 9.6x+201% | 19.6x+48% |
| Price/FCF | 33.4x | 20.7x+61% | 11.4x+193% | 28.0x+19% |
| Price/Sales | 8.2x | 3.1x+164% | 1.0x+702% | 6.0x+36% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.66% | 1.91% | 3.43% | 5.27% |
TKO trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 6 of 6 measured multiples — commands a broad premium across most valuation dimensions.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolTKO Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
TKO generates $1.7B in free cash flow at a 34.6% margin — returns 3.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$5.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+33.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
34.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
20.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
7.6%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.98
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
34.6%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$831M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$3.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.8× FCF
~1.8 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
4.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.9%
Dividend
1.7%
Buyback
2.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$867M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.30
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
327.9%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
195M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageTKO Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Earnings Miss
TKO Group Holdings missed Q4 2025 EPS estimates and provided fiscal 2026 revenue guidance below Wall Street consensus, leading to stock pressure.
High Risk
Operational Complexity
Despite major media rights deals, operational complexities and strategic investments are weighing on near-term profitability.
Medium
Financial Flexibility
Significant capital deployment toward share repurchases, including ASR transactions, could constrain financial flexibility if market or operating conditions worsen.
Medium
Market Sentiment Shift
A sudden shift in market narrative following earnings and guidance has disrupted the stock's previous upward momentum.
Lower
Risk Factor Volume
TKO disclosed 63 risk factors in its recent earnings report, indicating a broad range of potential challenges.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why TKO Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Iconic property portfolio
TKO owns premier properties like UFC, WWE, and PBR, which are leaders in their respective sports and entertainment sectors.
Dividend distribution
TKO has declared a quarterly cash dividend, showcasing its commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Global fan engagement
TKO delivers high-impact live events and multimedia content to millions globally, driving cultural trends and fan engagement across 170 countries.
Strong revenue growth
Revenue forecasts for TKO are at 19.1% annually, significantly higher than the US market average of 10.4%.
Media rights deals
TKO is positioned for growth with multi-billion-dollar media rights deals for UFC, WWE, and PBR.
Strong quarterly performance
TKO reported strong results in Q1 2026, reaffirming full-year guidance and demonstrating continued momentum across its businesses.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
TKO Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$198.78
52W Range Position
62%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$152.29
+30.5% from the low
52-Week High
$226.94
-12.4% from the high
1 Month
+2.43%
3 Month
-1.12%
YTD
-3.9%
1 Year
+13.0%
3Y CAGR
+25.3%
5Y CAGR
+28.0%
10Y CAGR
+26.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
TKO vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
42.4x
vs 53.2x median
-20% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+13.0%
vs +8.0% median
+64% above peer median
Net Margin
7.6%
vs 4.8% median
+58% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TKO TKO TKO Group Holdings, Inc. | $38.7B | 42.4x | +13.0% | 7.6% | Buy | +18.8% |
LYV LYV Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. | $39.8B | — | +10.1% | 0.3% | Buy | +8.5% |
MSG MSGS Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. | $8.9B | — | +4.0% | -2.1% | Buy | +10.0% |
MSG MSGE Madison Square Garden Entertainment Corp. | $3.5B | 65.3x | +3.0% | 4.8% | Buy | -6.0% |
FWO FWONK Formula One Group | $22.7B | 53.2x | +8.0% | 12.8% | Buy | +27.5% |
NFL NFLX Netflix, Inc. | $327.9B | 21.7x | +13.0% | 24.3% | Buy | +44.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
TKO Dividend and Capital Return
TKO returns 3.9% annually — 1.66% through dividends and 2.2% through buybacks.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.2%
Dividend Yield
1.66%
Payout Ratio
3.3%
How TKO Splits Its Return
Div 1.66%
Buyback 2.2%
Dividend 1.66%Buybacks 2.2%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.30
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
68.6%
5Y Div CAGR
36.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$867M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
195M
At 2.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.57 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.30 | — | 2.1% | 3.7% |
| 2023 | $4.10 | +754.2% | 1.5% | 5.9% |
| 2022 | $0.48 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 19.3% |
| 2021 | $0.48 | 0.0% | 4.0% | 4.9% |
FAQ
7 questionsTKO Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 16 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 3 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $236, implying +18.8% from the current price of $199. The bear case scenario is $65 and the bull case is $137.
02What is the TKO stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for TKO is $236 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $251 (+26.3% from today), and the low-end target is $225 (+13.2%). The base case model target is $104.
03Is TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) stock overvalued in 2026?
TKO trades at 42.4x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals limited: cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for TKO in 2026 are: (1) Earnings Miss — TKO Group Holdings missed Q4 2025 EPS estimates and provided fiscal 2026 revenue guidance below Wall Street consensus, leading to stock pressure. (2) Operational Complexity — Despite major media rights deals, operational complexities and strategic investments are weighing on near-term profitability. (3) Financial Flexibility — Significant capital deployment toward share repurchases, including ASR transactions, could constrain financial flexibility if market or operating conditions worsen. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is TKO Group Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates TKO will report consensus revenue of $5.7B (+13.0% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.37 (+19.7% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $6.1B in revenue.
06When does TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) report its next earnings?
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $1.53 and revenue of $1.6B. Over recent quarters, TKO has beaten EPS estimates 58% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does TKO Group Holdings, Inc. generate?
TKO Group Holdings, Inc. (TKO) generated $1.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 34.6%. TKO returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.7% yield) and share repurchases ($867M TTM).