FWRG trades 32.2% below Wall Street's consensus target of $17.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes FWRG achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 106.6x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 15 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of November 8, 2026, First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $17.00, based on estimates from 15 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $12.86, this represents a potential upside of +32.2%. The company has a market capitalization of $794M.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $15.00 to a high of $18.00, representing a 18% spread in expectations. The median target of $18.00 differs from the mean, suggesting potential outlier estimates. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 13 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,2 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. This overwhelmingly bullish sentiment suggests analysts see significant catalysts for upside ahead.
From a valuation perspective, FWRG trades at a trailing P/E of 41.0x and forward P/E of 106.6x. Analysts expect EPS to grow -61.5% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $16.66, with bear and bull scenarios of $10.50 and $21.94 respectively. Model confidence stands at 36/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CBRLCracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | $1.4B | $64.81 | $53.00 | -18.2% | Hold | — | 31 |
 BJRIBJ's Restaurants, Inc. | $1.2B | $55.67 | $61.33 | +10.2% | Buy | 23.4x | 32 |
 CAKEThe Cheesecake Factory Incorporated | $5.3B | $106.76 | $103.67 | -2.9% | Hold | 22.8x | 49 |
 RRGBRed Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. | $159M | $8.62 | $8.00 | -7.2% | Hold | — | 38 |
 DRIDarden Restaurants, Inc. | $25.9B | $226.35 | $237.79 | +5.1% | Buy | 21.3x | 60 |
 BLMNBloomin' Brands, Inc. | $835M | $9.75 | $11.13 | +14.2% | Hold | 10.1x | 29 |
 EATBrinker International, Inc. | $8.9B | $206.57 | $255.76 | +23.8% | Buy | 19.2x | 50 |
 TXRHTexas Roadhouse, Inc. | $12.1B | $183.88 | $212.19 | +15.4% | Buy | 28.4x | 45 |
 PTLOPortillo's Inc. | $481M | $6.64 | $6.17 | -7.1% | Hold | 41.9x | 13 |
 NDLSNoodles & Company | $84M | $14.05 | $48.00 | +241.6% | Hold | — | 19 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying FWRG stock.
The consensus Wall Street price target for FWRG is $17, representing 32.2% upside from the current price of $12.86. With 15 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
FWRG has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 15 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 13 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $17 implies 32.2% upside from current levels.
At a forward P/E of 106.6335x, FWRG trades at a premium valuation. The consensus price target of $17 (32.2% upside) suggests analysts still see growth justifying the multiple.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $18 for FWRG, while the most conservative target is $15. The consensus of $17 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $22 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
FWRG is well covered by analysts, with 15 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 1 have Strong Buy ratings, 12 have Buy ratings, 2 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month FWRG stock forecast based on 15 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $17, with estimates ranging from $15 (bear case) to $18 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $17, with bear/bull scenarios of $11/$22.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates FWRG's fair value at $17 (base case), with a bear case of $11 and bull case of $22. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 36/100.
FWRG trades at a forward P/E ratio of 106.6x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 41.0x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on FWRG, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $17 price target (32.2% upside). 13 of 15 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
FWRG analyst price targets range from $15 to $18, a 18% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $17 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $11-$22 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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