FXNC trades 31.0% above Wall Street's consensus target of $21.00.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes FXNC achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 11.6x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 1 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of November 9, 2026, First National Corporation (FXNC) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $21.00, based on estimates from 1 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $30.42, this represents a potential downside of -31.0%. The company has a market capitalization of $275M.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $21.00 to a high of $21.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $21.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 1 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,0 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. This overwhelmingly bullish sentiment suggests analysts see significant catalysts for upside ahead.
From a valuation perspective, FXNC trades at a trailing P/E of 12.0x and forward P/E of 11.6x. The forward PEG ratio of 7.75 reflects a premium valuation. Analysts expect EPS to grow +3.7% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $46.51, with bear and bull scenarios of $29.30 and $61.29 respectively. Model confidence stands at 45/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 NKSHNational Bankshares, Inc. | $250M | $39.19 | — | — | Buy | 11.2x | 4 |
 CZWICitizens Community Bancorp, Inc. | $225M | $23.38 | $24.00 | +2.7% | Buy | 15.0x | 3 |
 MNSBMainStreet Bancshares, Inc. | $157M | $22.11 | — | — | Hold | 10.6x | 1 |
 FBIZFirst Business Financial Services, Inc. | $620M | $74.18 | $82.33 | +11.0% | Buy | 10.9x | 10 |
 FUNCFirst United Corporation | $296M | $45.92 | $49.50 | +7.8% | Buy | 10.2x | 1 |
 CFFIC&F Financial Corporation | $342M | $105.12 | $115.00 | +9.4% | Buy | 11.0x | 1 |
 CARECarter Bankshares, Inc. | $636M | $28.69 | $34.50 | +20.3% | Hold | 4.7x | 5 |
 BSVNBank7 Corp. | $556M | $58.39 | $65.50 | +12.2% | Buy | 12.8x | 3 |
 FISFidelity National Information Services, Inc. | $14.8B | $28.73 | $42.93 | +49.4% | Hold | 4.6x | 40 |
 FISIFinancial Institutions, Inc. | $782M | $39.73 | $45.00 | +13.3% | Hold | 9.6x | 6 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying FXNC stock.
FXNC's consensus price target is $21, -31.0% below the current price of $30.42. The 1 analysts tracking FXNC see downside risk at present valuations.
FXNC has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 1 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 1 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $21 implies -31.0% downside from current levels.
With a forward P/E of 11.5665x, FXNC trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $21 implies -31.0% move, suggesting the market may be pricing in risks.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $21 for FXNC, while the most conservative target is $21. The consensus of $21 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $61 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
FXNC is lightly followed, with 1 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 1 have Buy ratings, 0 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month FXNC stock forecast based on 1 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $21, with estimates ranging from $21 (bear case) to $21 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $47, with bear/bull scenarios of $29/$61.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates FXNC's fair value at $47 (base case), with a bear case of $29 and bull case of $61. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 45/100.
FXNC trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11.6x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 12.0x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Analysts are cautious on FXNC, with 0 Sell ratings and a price target of $21 (-31.0% from current price). The "Buy" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
FXNC analyst price targets range from $21 to $21, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $21 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $29-$61 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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