The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) Price Target Analysis
Updated Jun 18, 2026
Analyst Rating: Buy
Based on 12 analysts16.3% Above Target
GEO trades 16.3% above Wall Street's consensus target of $24.50.
Current Price$29.28
Average Target$24.50
Target
Current
Low$14.00
Median$24.50
High$35.00
Analyst Target Range
Forward P/E23.9x
(Fair)
PEG Ratio1.69
(Fair)
Implied Growth-39.8%
(Declining)
Analyst Spread85.7%
(Wide Disagreement)
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Consensus Scenario Assumptions
The base valuation assumes GEO achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 23.9x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 12 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
GEO Price Target Analysis
Updated June 22, 2026As of June 22, 2026, The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $24.50, based on estimates from 12 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $29.28, this represents a potential downside of -16.3%. The company has a market capitalization of $3.89B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $14.00 to a high of $35.00, representing a 86% spread in expectations. The median target of $24.50 aligns closely with the consensus average. The wide target spread reflects significant disagreement on fair value.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 8 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,4 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, GEO trades at a trailing P/E of 16.1x and forward P/E of 23.9x. The forward PEG ratio of 1.69 indicates reasonable valuation for growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow -39.8% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $28.59, with bear and bull scenarios of $18.01 and $37.66 respectively. Model confidence stands at 37/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Industrials stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside
+21.9%
Industry Consensus
Avg Forward P/E
15.9x
(Fair)
Peers with Coverage
10 / 10
Active Analyst Tracking
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CXWCoreCivic, Inc. | $2.9B | $28.90 | $15.50 | -46.4% | Buy | 18.4x | 12 |
 ACHCAcadia Healthcare Company, Inc. | $2.3B | $24.87 | $28.33 | +13.9% | Buy | 16.5x | 25 |
 UHSUniversal Health Services, Inc. | $8.8B | $141.17 | $216.00 | +53.0% | Hold | 6.0x | 43 |
 GGenpact Limited | $4.8B | $28.25 | $42.00 | +48.7% | Hold | 6.9x | 40 |
 ABMABM Industries Incorporated | $2.6B | $44.15 | $48.33 | +9.5% | Hold | 11.1x | 11 |
 CTASCintas Corporation | $68.8B | $170.85 | $241.00 | +41.1% | Hold | 34.9x | 30 |
 ARMKAramark | $14.0B | $53.32 | $55.25 | +3.6% | Buy | 23.7x | 24 |
 SFMSprouts Farmers Market, Inc. | $7.6B | $80.49 | $91.00 | +13.1% | Buy | 14.4x | 43 |
 BAHBooz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation | $7.9B | $66.36 | $89.50 | +34.9% | Buy | 10.9x | 21 |
 CACICACI International Inc | $10.3B | $466.42 | $690.40 | +48.0% | Buy | 16.5x | 29 |
GEO — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying GEO stock.
What is the GEO stock price target for 2026?
GEO's consensus price target is $24.5, -16.3% below the current price of $29.28. The 12 analysts tracking GEO see downside risk at present valuations.
Is GEO a buy, sell, or hold?
GEO has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 12 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 8 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $24.5 implies -16.3% downside from current levels.
Is GEO stock overvalued or undervalued?
GEO trades at a forward P/E of 23.8534x, representing a moderate valuation. With analysts targeting $24.5 (-16.3% implied move), the stock appears close to fair value.
How high can GEO stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $35 for GEO, while the most conservative target is $14. The consensus of $24.5 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $38 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover GEO stock?
GEO is moderately covered, with 12 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 8 have Buy ratings, 4 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the GEO stock forecast?
The 12-month GEO stock forecast based on 12 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $24.5, with estimates ranging from $14 (bear case) to $35 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $29, with bear/bull scenarios of $18/$38.
What is GEO's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates GEO's fair value at $29 (base case), with a bear case of $18 and bull case of $38. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 37/100.
What is GEO's forward P/E ratio?
GEO trades at a forward P/E ratio of 23.9x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 16.1x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy GEO stock?
Analysts are cautious on GEO, with 0 Sell ratings and a price target of $24.5 (-16.3% from current price). The "Buy" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do GEO price targets vary so much?
GEO analyst price targets range from $14 to $35, a 86% wide spread indicating significant analyst disagreement. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $24.5 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $18-$38 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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