Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) Price Target Analysis
Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated May 1, 2026
Current Price
$64.84
Price Target
$83.25
Target Range
$77.00 — $90.00
Analyst Rating
Buy
Forward P/E12.9x
Trailing P/E10.1x
Forward PEG4.19
Implied Growth-12.2%
Median Target$83.00
Analyst Spread15.6%
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Bear Case
$77
+18.8%
Consensus
$83
+28.4%
Bull Case
$90
+38.8%
Valuation Model TargetsConfidence: 53/100
Bear$49
Base$69
Bull$202
MTH Price Target Analysis
Updated May 7, 2026As of May 7, 2026, Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $83.25, based on estimates from 38 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $64.84, this represents a potential upside of +28.4%. The company has a market capitalization of $4.33B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $77.00 to a high of $90.00, representing a 16% spread in expectations. The median target of $83.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 19 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,16 rating it Hold, and 3 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, MTH trades at a trailing P/E of 10.1x and forward P/E of 12.9x. The forward PEG ratio of 4.19 reflects a premium valuation. Analysts expect EPS to grow -12.2% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $69.18, with bear and bull scenarios of $48.85 and $202.10 respectively. Model confidence stands at 53/100, reflecting moderate uncertainty in projections.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Consumer Cyclical stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside+16.3%
Avg Forward P/E16.0x
Peers with Coverage10 / 10
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DHID.R. Horton, Inc. | $43.2B | $149.17 | $163.86 | +9.8% | Hold | 14.0x | 52 |
 LENLennar Corporation | $19.5B | $90.54 | $102.14 | +12.8% | Buy | 14.7x | 50 |
 PHMPulteGroup, Inc. | $23.1B | $120.10 | $141.22 | +17.6% | Hold | 12.0x | 44 |
 NVRNVR, Inc. | $16.9B | $6091.97 | $7465.33 | +22.5% | Buy | 16.9x | 24 |
 TOLToll Brothers, Inc. | $13.4B | $141.60 | $166.75 | +17.8% | Hold | 11.1x | 46 |
 KBHKB Home | $3.1B | $49.67 | $62.57 | +26.0% | Hold | 15.2x | 43 |
 TPHTri Pointe Homes, Inc. | $4.0B | $46.95 | $47.00 | +0.1% | Hold | 23.3x | 22 |
 TMHCTaylor Morrison Home Corporation | $5.6B | $60.35 | $73.75 | +22.2% | Buy | 11.4x | 30 |
 SKYChampion Homes, Inc. | $4.2B | $75.92 | $106.00 | +39.6% | Buy | 20.1x | 8 |
 CVCOCavco Industries, Inc. | $4.7B | $500.33 | $475.00 | -5.1% | Buy | 21.0x | 2 |
Upside Potential Comparison
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Start ComparisonMTH — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying MTH stock.
What is the MTH stock price target for 2026?
The consensus Wall Street price target for MTH is $83.25, representing 28.4% upside from the current price of $64.836. With 38 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
Is MTH a buy, sell, or hold?
MTH has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 38 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 16 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $83.25 implies 28.4% upside from current levels.
Is MTH stock overvalued or undervalued?
With a forward P/E of 12.9029x, MTH trades at a relatively low valuation. The consensus target of $83.25 implies 28.4% appreciation, suggesting meaningful undervaluation.
How high can MTH stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $90 for MTH, while the most conservative target is $77. The consensus of $83.25 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $202 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover MTH stock?
MTH is heavily covered by Wall Street, with 38 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 19 have Buy ratings, 16 recommend Hold, and 3 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the MTH stock forecast?
The 12-month MTH stock forecast based on 38 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $83.25, with estimates ranging from $77 (bear case) to $90 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $69, with bear/bull scenarios of $49/$202.
What is MTH's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates MTH's fair value at $69 (base case), with a bear case of $49 and bull case of $202. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 53/100.
What is MTH's forward P/E ratio?
MTH trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12.9x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 10.1x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy MTH stock?
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on MTH, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $83.25 price target (28.4% upside). 19 of 38 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do MTH price targets vary so much?
MTH analyst price targets range from $77 to $90, a 16% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $83.25 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $49-$202 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.