Upside case
Bull case
$3107+39275.5%
NMR would need investors to value it at roughly 3803x earnings — about 3793x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
9
analysts
3 bullish · 0 bearish · 9 covering NMR
Strong Buy
0
Buy
3
Hold
6
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$6
-26.6% vs today
Scenario Range
— – $3107
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
9
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
9.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $22.8B
NMR price targets
Three scenarios for where NMR stock could go
Current
~$8
Confidence
36 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $8
Base
$1162
Bull
$3107
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$1162+14623.2%
At 1422x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Nomura Holdings, Inc.
NMR · NYSEFinancial ServicesFinancial - Capital MarketsMarch year-end
Nomura Holdings is a Japanese financial services conglomerate that operates as a full-service investment bank and securities firm. It generates revenue primarily through its Wholesale segment — investment banking, trading, and securities underwriting — which contributes roughly 60-70% of total revenue, supplemented by Retail brokerage and Investment Management services. The company's key advantage is its dominant position in Japan's domestic capital markets and its extensive Asian franchise, which provides deep client relationships and local market expertise.
Market Cap
$22.8B
Net Income TTM
$370.1B
NMR Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
44%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
100%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+5.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.24/$0.25
Revenue
$7.7B/$3.1B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.22/$0.17
Revenue
$7.2B/—
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.18/$0.24
Revenue
$3.5B/$3.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.16/$0.21
Revenue
$3.6B/$3.5B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.24/$0.25 | -5.1% | $7.7B/$3.1B | +149.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.22/$0.17 | +29.4% | $7.2B/— | — |
| Q1 2026 | $0.18/$0.24 | -25.0% | $3.5B/$3.3B | +6.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.16/$0.21 | -23.8% | $3.6B/$3.5B | +4.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$4.27T
-10.2% YoY
FY2
$4.51T
+5.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$105.07
-14.3% YoY
FY2
$111.40
+6.0% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$0
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
NMR beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
NMR Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $340.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Brokerage Commissions
77.6%
+9.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
JAPAN
45.8%
+10.6% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Brokerage Commissions is the largest disclosed segment at 77.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 9.0% YoY.
JAPAN is the largest reported region at 45.8%, up 10.6% YoY.
NMR Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $1382 — implies +17599.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
17599.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
NMR
10.4x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
59% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
NMR
10.4x
vs
Financial Services
13.3x
22% discount
vs NMR 5Y Avg P/E
Today
10.4x
vs
5Y Average
0.1x
+11047% premium
Forward PE
9.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-49%
Financial Services
10.4x
-7%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
10.4x
S&P 500
25.1x
-59%
Financial Services
13.3x
-22%
5Y Avg
0.1x
+11047%
PEG Ratio
0.53x
S&P 500
1.72x
-69%
Financial Services
1.01x
-48%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
27.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+79%
Financial Services
11.4x
+138%
5Y Avg
53.7x
-49%
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Financial Services
10.6x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
0.7x
S&P 500
3.1x
-76%
Financial Services
2.2x
-66%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+12714%
Dividend Yield
4.79%
S&P 500
1.87%
+157%
Financial Services
2.70%
+78%
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | NMR | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg NMR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 9.7x | 19.1x-49% | 10.4x | — |
| Trailing PE | 10.4x | 25.1x-59% | 13.3x-22% | 0.1x+11047% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.53x | 1.72x-69% | 1.01x-48% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.2x | 15.2x+79% | 11.4x+138% | 53.7x-49% |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 10.6x | — |
| Price/Sales | 0.7x | 3.1x-76% | 2.2x-66% | 0.0x+12714% |
| Dividend Yield | 4.79% | 1.87% | 2.70% | — |
NMR trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolNMR Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
NMR generates 10.2% ROE and 0.6% return on assets — the two primary signals for banking profitability. FCF-based metrics are not applicable to financial companies.
Earnings Engine
Revenue, profitability, and return on capital
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
—
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
—
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
—
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
—
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$122.54
ROE
Return on equity — the primary profitability signal for banks
10.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
1.4%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
0.6%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$4.30T
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$13.00T
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity — the headline bank profitability metric
10.2%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
7.6%
Dividend
4.8%
Buyback
2.9%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$101.5B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$59.06
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
49.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
2.9B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageNMR Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
High Leverage
Nomura Holdings has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 9.37, indicating a substantial reliance on debt for financing operations. This level of leverage magnifies the company's risk, particularly in market downturns, and is compounded by a negative free cash flow of -¥868.6 billion in the last fiscal year.
Medium
Market Risk
Nomura is exposed to market risk, which includes potential losses due to fluctuations in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, and security prices. These factors can significantly impact the company's financial performance and investor sentiment.
Medium
Credit Risk
The company faces credit risk arising from potential defaults or insolvency of obligors, as well as counterparty creditworthiness deterioration. Such risks can lead to significant financial losses and affect overall profitability.
Medium
Earnings Performance
Nomura's recent earnings per share have fallen below market expectations, which can negatively impact short-term investor sentiment. This underperformance may lead to increased volatility in the stock price.
Lower
Model Risk
Model risk pertains to potential financial losses or reputational damage due to errors in financial models or inappropriate model applications. While this risk exists, it is generally manageable within the company's operational framework.
Lower
External Factors
Nomura's performance is sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, including interest rate changes and geopolitical developments. These external factors can influence the company's operational environment and overall market performance.
Lower
Non-Modellable Risk Factors
Regulatory changes, such as the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB), require financial institutions to hold additional capital for non-modellable risk factors. This can impact profitability and operational flexibility.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why NMR Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Full-Year Performance
Nomura achieved a record annual profit for the second consecutive year in fiscal year 2026, with net income rising 6.3% to ¥362.1 billion and net revenue increasing by 14.5%. The company also met its 2030 Vision strategy target with a return on equity (ROE) of 10.1%.
Strategic Initiatives
The establishment of a new Trust Banking division is expected to improve income predictability by increasing recurring revenue streams. Furthermore, the acquisition of Macquarie's US asset management arm is set to significantly expand Assets Under Management (AUM), potentially boosting long-term ROE.
Attractive Valuation
Nomura's Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of approximately 9.8x is considered good value when compared to its peers (average 20.9x) and the US Capital Markets industry average (42x). Its P/E ratio is also lower than its estimated fair P/E ratio of 13.1x.
Dividend Yield
The company offers an attractive dividend yield of 4.14%, providing returns to shareholders. The dividend payout ratio is at a healthy and sustainable level of 35%.
Analyst Ratings Support
Nomura has received a consensus rating of 'Buy' from analysts, with one analyst specifically rating it as 'Buy' and believing the stock will outperform the market in the next twelve months. JP Morgan recently upgraded Nomura to 'Overweight,' citing better growth prospects and a successful shift toward investment-focused services.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
NMR Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$7.89
52W Range Position
59%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$5.48
+44.0% from the low
52-Week High
$9.58
-17.6% from the high
1 Month
-2.35%
3 Month
-8.57%
YTD
-6.6%
1 Year
+41.9%
3Y CAGR
+30.9%
5Y CAGR
+7.6%
10Y CAGR
+6.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
NMR vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
9.7x
vs 13.5x median
-28% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-10.2%
vs -13.8% median
+26% above peer median
Net Margin
—
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NMR NMR Nomura Holdings, Inc. | $22.8B | 9.7x | -10.2% | — | Hold | -26.6% |
MS MS Morgan Stanley | $301.1B | 15.9x | -5.3% | — | Buy | +8.7% |
GS GS The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | $285.5B | 15.5x | -23.1% | — | Hold | +8.4% |
UBS UBS UBS Group AG | $136.9B | 13.5x | -19.3% | — | Buy | -46.6% |
DB DB Deutsche Bank AG | $58.6B | 9.1x | -13.8% | — | Hold | -51.5% |
MUF MUFG Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. | $200.9B | 0.1x | +4.0% | — | Buy | — |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
NMR Dividend and Capital Return
NMR returns 7.6% total yield, led by a 4.79% dividend. Buybacks add another 2.9%.
Dividend SustainableFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
7.6%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.9%
Dividend Yield
4.79%
Payout Ratio
49.6%
How NMR Splits Its Return
Div 4.79%
Buyback 2.9%
Dividend 4.79%Buybacks 2.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$59.06
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
3Y
3Y Div CAGR
41.7%
5Y Div CAGR
11.7%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$101.5B
Estimated Shares Retired
12.9B
Approx. Share Reduction
445.6%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
2.9B
At 445.6%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | $0.41 | +65.6% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2024 | $0.25 | +76.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2023 | $0.14 | -2.9% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2022 | $0.14 | -30.2% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| 2021 | $0.21 | -12.6% | 0.1% | 100.0% |
FAQ
7 questionsNMR Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 9 analysts covering the stock, 3 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $6, implying -26.6% from the current price of $8.
02What is the NMR stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for NMR is $6 based on 9 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $6 (-26.6% from today), and the low-end target is $6 (-26.6%). The base case model target is $1162.
03Is Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) stock overvalued in 2026?
NMR trades at 9.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for NMR in 2026 are: (1) High Leverage — Nomura Holdings has a high debt-to-equity ratio of 9. (2) Market Risk — Nomura is exposed to market risk, which includes potential losses due to fluctuations in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, and security prices. (3) Credit Risk — The company faces credit risk arising from potential defaults or insolvency of obligors, as well as counterparty creditworthiness deterioration. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Nomura Holdings, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates NMR will report consensus revenue of $4.27T (-10.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $105.07 (-14.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $4.51T in revenue.
06When does Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for NMR is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Nomura Holdings, Inc. generate?
Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) generated $0 in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months. NMR returns capital to shareholders through dividends (4.8% yield) and share repurchases ($101.5B TTM).