Upside case
Bull case
$97+147.9%
ORI would need investors to value it at roughly 32x earnings — about 19x more generous than today's 13x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
5
analysts
1 bullish · 0 bearish · 5 covering ORI
Strong Buy
1
Buy
0
Hold
4
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$42
+7.1% vs today
Scenario Range
$21 – $97
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
5
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.7x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.5B
ORI price targets
Three scenarios for where ORI stock could go
Current
~$39
Confidence
51 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $39
Bear
$21
Base
$48
Bull
$97
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$48+23.6%
At 16x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$21-47.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push ORI down roughly 47% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Old Republic International Corporation
ORI · NYSEFinancial ServicesInsurance - DiversifiedDecember year-end
Old Republic International is a diversified insurance holding company that underwrites property and casualty insurance through its subsidiaries. It generates revenue primarily from insurance premiums across three segments: General Insurance (covering commercial and specialty lines), Title Insurance (real estate title policies), and a run-off business for discontinued operations. The company's competitive advantage lies in its long-standing industry expertise—particularly in commercial transportation and title insurance—and disciplined underwriting approach that has delivered consistent profitability across market cycles.
Market Cap
$9.5B
Revenue TTM
$9.1B
Net Income TTM
$936M
Net Margin
10.3%
ORI Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
58%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+15.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.83/$0.79
Revenue
$2.2B/$2.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.11/$0.76
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.74/$0.89
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.68/$0.79
Revenue
$2.4B/$2.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.83/$0.79 | +5.1% | $2.2B/$2.3B | -3.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.11/$0.76 | +45.9% | $2.4B/$2.3B | +6.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.74/$0.89 | -16.9% | $2.4B/$2.3B | +3.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.68/$0.79 | -13.9% | $2.4B/$2.3B | +5.7% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$9.8B
+7.4% YoY
FY2
$10.4B
+7.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$4.12
+10.0% YoY
FY2
$4.61
+11.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.2B
FCF Margin: 12.8%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
ORI beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
ORI Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.8B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
General Insurance Segment
66.6%
+10.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
General Insurance Segment is the largest disclosed segment at 66.6% of FY 2025 revenue, up 10.9% YoY.
ORI Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Slightly Undervalued
Fair value est. $44 — implies +11.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
11.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
ORI
10.5x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
58% discount
vs Financial Services Trailing P/E
ORI
10.5x
vs
Financial Services
13.4x
21% discount
vs ORI 5Y Avg P/E
Today
10.5x
vs
5Y Average
10.6x
In line with benchmark
Forward PE
12.7x
S&P 500
19.1x
-33%
Financial Services
10.5x
+21%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
10.5x
S&P 500
25.2x
-58%
Financial Services
13.4x
-21%
5Y Avg
10.6x
-1%
PEG Ratio
0.71x
S&P 500
1.75x
-59%
Financial Services
1.03x
-31%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
8.9x
S&P 500
15.3x
-41%
Financial Services
11.4x
-22%
5Y Avg
10.4x
-14%
Price/FCF
8.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
-62%
Financial Services
10.6x
-23%
5Y Avg
7.8x
+5%
Price/Sales
1.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
-66%
Financial Services
2.3x
-53%
5Y Avg
1.1x
-0%
Dividend Yield
8.00%
S&P 500
1.88%
+326%
Financial Services
2.68%
+198%
5Y Avg
6.92%
+16%
| Metric | ORI | S&P 500 | Financial Services | 5Y Avg ORI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.7x | 19.1x-33% | 10.5x+21% | — |
| Trailing PE | 10.5x | 25.2x-58% | 13.4x-21% | 10.6x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.71x | 1.75x-59% | 1.03x-31% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.9x | 15.3x-41% | 11.4x-22% | 10.4x-14% |
| Price/FCF | 8.2x | 21.3x-62% | 10.6x-23% | 7.8x |
| Price/Sales | 1.1x | 3.1x-66% | 2.3x-53% | 1.1x |
| Dividend Yield | 8.00% | 1.88% | 2.68% | 6.92% |
ORI trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 0 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolORI Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
ORI posts 10.3% net margin with 15.3% ROE — the core signals of underwriting discipline and capital efficiency.
Underwriting & Earnings
Premium revenue, margins, and returns
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$9.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+10.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
13.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
10.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$3.75
ROE
Return on equity — measures underwriting and investment efficiency
15.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
12.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
3.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$263M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.5B
FCF Analysis
Traditional FCF and debt/FCF ratios are not meaningful for financial companies. Focus on ROE and ROA above.
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
15.3%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
9.3%
Dividend
8.0%
Buyback
1.3%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$124M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$3.13
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
83.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
244M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. For financial companies, ROE and ROA are the primary health signals — FCF-based metrics are not applicable.
Open full ratios pageORI Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Macroeconomic Conditions
Broader economic trends, including inflation and potential recessionary conditions, pose significant risks to ORI's operations and financial performance. Additionally, higher unemployment rates in lending areas can negatively affect loan performance and overall economic stability.
High Risk
Interest Rate Fluctuations
Changes in interest rates can significantly impact ORI's profitability, particularly affecting its investment income and the demand for its insurance products. A rise in interest rates may lead to reduced revenue from the title insurance segment.
High Risk
Title Insurance Challenges
The title insurance business faces headwinds from a decelerating housing market and higher interest rates, leading to reduced revenue and operating leverage. This is particularly concerning as fluctuations in real estate markets directly affect ORI's title insurance segment.
Medium
Investment Income Softness
A decline in investment income can pressure ORI's profitability, especially if the asset base shrinks. This risk is compounded by the company's reliance on investment income to support its overall financial health.
Medium
Profit Margin Pressures
There is a tension between softer profit forecasts and higher P/E assumptions, indicating potential pressure on profit margins. Analysts have noted that this could lead to a reevaluation of the company's financial outlook.
Medium
Regulatory Changes
Changes in laws and regulations can impact ORI's operations and financial results. Regulatory shifts may introduce additional compliance costs or alter the competitive landscape for the company's insurance products.
Lower
Dilution from Share Issuance
The potential dilution caused by ORI's issuance of additional shares in connection with transactions is a consideration for investors. This could affect earnings per share and overall shareholder value.
Lower
Natural Disasters Risks
Events like natural disasters and potential increases in flood insurance premiums present risks to ORI's insurance operations. While property rates are not adversely affected by catastrophic risks, the broader insurance industry remains vulnerable to such events.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why ORI Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Dividend Growth and Shareholder Returns
Old Republic International has increased its quarterly cash dividend, signaling management's confidence in the company's financial health and its dedication to rewarding shareholders. This consistent dividend growth, coupled with share buybacks, is attractive to income-focused investors.
Earnings Beat and Cash Generation
The company has exceeded analyst expectations for earnings, even amidst a challenging real estate cycle. This indicates robust cash generation capabilities.
Diversified Business Model
While the Title Insurance segment faces headwinds from a decelerating housing market, Old Republic's diversified operations provide resilience. This diversification helps mitigate risks associated with any single segment.
Competitive Advantage
The company benefits from a competitive advantage in its property rates, which are not adversely affected by large account and catastrophic risks. This positions Old Republic favorably in the insurance market.
Strong Financial Performance
Despite slower premium growth, Old Republic has demonstrated strong cash generation and a commitment to returning capital to shareholders. This financial strength underpins the company's ability to navigate market challenges.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
ORI Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$39.20
52W Range Position
32%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$35.60
+10.1% from the low
52-Week High
$46.76
-16.2% from the high
1 Month
-2.83%
3 Month
-6.15%
YTD
-9.4%
1 Year
+3.0%
3Y CAGR
+15.5%
5Y CAGR
+8.6%
10Y CAGR
+7.6%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
ORI vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.7x
vs 10.1x median
+26% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.4%
vs +3.4% median
+118% above peer median
Net Margin
10.3%
vs 12.1% median
-15% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ORI ORI Old Republic International Corporation | $9.5B | 12.7x | +7.4% | 10.3% | Hold | +7.1% |
HIG HIG The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. | $36.7B | 10.1x | +5.4% | 14.1% | Buy | +13.9% |
CNA CNA CNA Financial Corporation | $11.7B | 9.0x | +2.4% | 9.0% | Hold | +3.6% |
WRB WRB W. R. Berkley Corporation | $24.8B | 14.2x | +1.3% | 12.1% | Hold | +6.3% |
MKL MKL Markel Corporation | $22.3B | 15.9x | +3.4% | 10.7% | Hold | +9.2% |
HCI HCI HCI Group, Inc. | $2.0B | 9.3x | +20.4% | 33.2% | Buy | -17.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
ORI Dividend and Capital Return
ORI returns 9.3% total yield, led by a 8.00% dividend. Buybacks add another 1.3%.
Dividend WatchFCF Adequate
Total Shareholder Yield
9.3%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
1.3%
Dividend Yield
8.00%
Payout Ratio
83.6%
How ORI Splits Its Return
Div 8.00%
Dividend 8.00%Buybacks 1.3%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$3.13
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
2Y
3Y Div CAGR
18.1%
5Y Div CAGR
30.3%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$124M
Estimated Shares Retired
3M
Approx. Share Reduction
1.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
244M
At 1.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $2.81 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.16 | +198.1% | 1.1% | 8.0% |
| 2024 | $1.06 | +8.2% | 9.9% | 12.7% |
| 2023 | $0.98 | -49.0% | 6.4% | 9.7% |
| 2022 | $1.92 | -43.2% | 3.8% | 11.8% |
FAQ
7 questionsORI Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 5 analysts covering the stock, 1 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $42, implying +7.1% from the current price of $39. The bear case scenario is $21 and the bull case is $97.
02What is the ORI stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for ORI is $42 based on 5 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $44 (+12.2% from today), and the low-end target is $40 (+2.0%). The base case model target is $48.
03Is Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) stock overvalued in 2026?
ORI trades at 12.7x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals slightly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for ORI in 2026 are: (1) Macroeconomic Conditions — Broader economic trends, including inflation and potential recessionary conditions, pose significant risks to ORI's operations and financial performance. (2) Interest Rate Fluctuations — Changes in interest rates can significantly impact ORI's profitability, particularly affecting its investment income and the demand for its insurance products. (3) Title Insurance Challenges — The title insurance business faces headwinds from a decelerating housing market and higher interest rates, leading to reduced revenue and operating leverage. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Old Republic International Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates ORI will report consensus revenue of $9.8B (+7.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $4.12 (+10.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $10.4B in revenue.
06When does Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for ORI is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Old Republic International Corporation generate?
Old Republic International Corporation (ORI) generated $1.2B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 12.8%. ORI returns capital to shareholders through dividends (8.0% yield) and share repurchases ($124M TTM).