Upside case
Bull case
$234+49.4%
OSK would need investors to value it at roughly 21x earnings — about 7x more generous than today's 14x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
37
analysts
22 bullish · 1 bearish · 37 covering OSK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
22
Hold
14
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$168
+7.2% vs today
Scenario Range
$86 – $234
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
14.0x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.9B
OSK price targets
Three scenarios for where OSK stock could go
Current
~$157
Confidence
64 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $157
Bear
$86
Base
$198
Bull
$234
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$198+26.3%
At 18x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$86-45.4%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push OSK down roughly 45% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Oshkosh Corporation
OSK · NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachineryDecember year-end
Oshkosh Corporation is a manufacturer of specialty vehicles and equipment for defense, construction, and emergency services. It generates revenue primarily through three segments: Access Equipment (~50% of sales) for construction lifts, Defense (~30%) for military vehicles, and Fire & Emergency (~20%) for firefighting apparatus. The company's moat comes from its deep expertise in specialized vehicle engineering and long-term contracts with government agencies—particularly the U.S. Department of Defense.
Market Cap
$9.9B
Revenue TTM
$10.8B
Net Income TTM
$731M
Net Margin
6.8%
OSK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+20.1%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$1.92/$2.02
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.7B
Q3 2025
EPS
$3.41/$2.98
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.20/$3.10
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.26/$2.33
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.6B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $1.92/$2.02 | -5.0% | $2.3B/$2.7B | -13.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.41/$2.98 | +14.4% | $2.7B/$2.8B | -1.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.20/$3.10 | +3.2% | $2.7B/$2.8B | -5.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.26/$2.33 | -3.0% | $2.7B/$2.6B | +3.5% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.0B
+2.2% YoY
FY2
$11.5B
+4.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$11.37
+688.5% YoY
FY2
$12.66
+11.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.5B
FCF Margin: 13.9%
Next Earnings
May 8, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.04
Expected Revenue
$2.3B
OSK beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
OSK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2018
Total disclosed revenue $7.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Access Equipment
49.0%
+24.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
80.2%
+21.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Access Equipment is the largest disclosed segment at 49.0% of FY 2018 revenue, up 24.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 80.2%, up 21.3% YoY.
OSK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $208 — implies +33.9% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
33.9%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
OSK
15.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
38% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
OSK
15.6x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
40% discount
vs OSK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
15.6x
vs
5Y Average
16.5x
5% discount
Forward PE
14.0x
S&P 500
19.1x
-26%
Industrials
20.8x
-33%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
15.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-38%
Industrials
25.9x
-40%
5Y Avg
16.5x
-5%
PEG Ratio
3.26x
S&P 500
1.75x
+87%
Industrials
1.59x
+105%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
9.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
-41%
Industrials
13.9x
-35%
5Y Avg
15.4x
-41%
Price/FCF
16.0x
S&P 500
21.3x
-25%
Industrials
20.6x
-22%
5Y Avg
30.0x
-46%
Price/Sales
1.0x
S&P 500
3.1x
-70%
Industrials
1.6x
-40%
5Y Avg
1.5x
-37%
Dividend Yield
0.22%
S&P 500
1.88%
-88%
Industrials
1.24%
-82%
5Y Avg
1.31%
-83%
| Metric | OSK | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg OSK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 14.0x | 19.1x-26% | 20.8x-33% | — |
| Trailing PE | 15.6x | 25.2x-38% | 25.9x-40% | 16.5x |
| PEG Ratio | 3.26x | 1.75x+87% | 1.59x+105% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.0x | 15.3x-41% | 13.9x-35% | 15.4x-41% |
| Price/FCF | 16.0x | 21.3x-25% | 20.6x-22% | 30.0x-46% |
| Price/Sales | 1.0x | 3.1x-70% | 1.6x-40% | 1.5x-37% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.22% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 1.31% |
OSK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 6 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolOSK Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
OSK generates $1.5B in free cash flow at a 13.9% margin — 14.1% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.0% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$10.8B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
17.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
9.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
6.8%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.44
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.9%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
14.1%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
7.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$480M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$621M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.4× FCF
~0.4 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
16.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.0%
Dividend
0.2%
Buyback
2.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$278M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.35
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
20.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
66M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageOSK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Government Contract Dependency
Approximately 20% of Oshkosh's 2025 net sales are tied to the U.S. government, exposing the company to risks from government budgets and policy changes. The U.S. Postal Service contract has deferred costs exceeding expected future profits by about $135 million as of December 31, 2025, with production ramp-up being slower and more costly than anticipated.
High Risk
Tariffs and Increased Costs
Tariffs imposed by the U.S. in 2025 raised Oshkosh's costs by approximately $35 million, with estimates reaching around $200 million for 2026. These tariffs are likely to pressure profit margins and pricing strategies.
Medium
Segment Performance and Backlog
The Access segment has seen a 42% decline in adjusted operating income and an 18.6% drop in revenue year-over-year, attributed to lower sales and increased discounting. Analysts warn that the company may struggle to meet its 2026 financial goals due to a 66% year-over-year decline in backlog levels.
Medium
Contract Expirations and Changes
The expiration of the Caterpillar-branded telehandlers contract has negatively impacted consolidated sales. Additionally, defense vehicle revenues have declined by 13% year-over-year, primarily due to reduced volumes in the domestic JLTV program.
Medium
Economic Conditions and Demand Fluctuations
Oshkosh's products are subject to market cyclicality and global demand fluctuations. A recession or other factors leading to decreased demand could adversely affect net sales, financial condition, and profitability.
Lower
Credit and Collection Risk
Oshkosh has consolidated gross receivables of $1.5 billion and customer indebtedness guarantees of $559 million, indicating potential credit and collection risks, particularly in weaker economic conditions.
Lower
Geopolitical Risks
While recent de-escalation in Iran-related tensions may reduce perceived geopolitical risks, Oshkosh remains vulnerable to shifts in U.S. defense and postal funding and broader geopolitical tensions that could impact the industrial sector.
Lower
Insider Selling
There has been a minor risk of significant insider selling over the past three months, which investors should consider when evaluating the stock.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why OSK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Strong Performance in Key Segments
The Vocational segment is particularly robust, showing strong year-over-year sales growth and a significant backlog. This segment benefits from favorable pricing and demand, positioning the company for continued success.
Defense Contracts and Modernization
Oshkosh Defense has secured significant contracts, including an $89 million order from the U.S. Army for Palletized Load System A2 vehicles. This highlights the company's relevance in defense modernization and its ability to capitalize on growing defense budgets.
Technological Integration and Innovation
Oshkosh is focusing on technology integration, including AI, automation, autonomy, and connectivity across its products. This strategic emphasis is expected to drive future growth, particularly in next-generation vehicles and electrified fleets.
Long-Term Growth Projections
Revenue is projected to grow to $13–$14 billion by 2028, driven by technology integration, strong backlogs, and aftermarket opportunities. Some forecasts envision revenue reaching $12.0 billion and earnings of $940.2 million by 2028.
Financial Strength and Shareholder Returns
The company demonstrates strong financial performance, with expectations of higher margins and stronger free cash flow. Ongoing share buybacks are also expected to support earnings growth.
Market Position and Demand
Analysts see sustained demand for Access and Vocational products, supported by non-residential construction, data center, and power-related projects. This demand is crucial for the company's growth trajectory.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
OSK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$156.71
52W Range Position
74%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$87.54
+79.0% from the low
52-Week High
$180.49
-13.2% from the high
1 Month
+5.89%
3 Month
-8.74%
YTD
+18.5%
1 Year
+77.6%
3Y CAGR
+27.3%
5Y CAGR
+3.5%
10Y CAGR
+13.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
OSK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
14.0x
vs 20.3x median
-31% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+2.2%
vs +0.5% median
+344% above peer median
Net Margin
6.8%
vs 2.1% median
+217% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OSK OSK Oshkosh Corporation | $9.9B | 14.0x | +2.2% | 6.8% | Buy | +7.2% |
CMI CMI Cummins Inc. | $98.9B | 27.2x | +4.3% | 7.9% | Buy | -13.2% |
PCA PCAR PACCAR Inc | $61.3B | 20.3x | -1.6% | 9.1% | Hold | +6.9% |
CNH CNH CNH Industrial N.V. | $13.4B | 26.1x | -4.3% | 2.1% | Buy | +22.5% |
TEX TEX Terex Corporation | $4.2B | 13.3x | +16.1% | 1.9% | Hold | +24.9% |
MAN MAN ManpowerGroup Inc. | $1.4B | 8.0x | +0.5% | -0.1% | Hold | +29.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
OSK Dividend and Capital Return
OSK returns capital mainly through $278M/year in buybacks (2.9% buyback yield), with a modest 0.23% dividend — combining for 3.1% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 13 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.1%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.9%
Dividend Yield
0.23%
Payout Ratio
20.2%
How OSK Splits Its Return
Buyback 2.9%
Dividend 0.23%Buybacks 2.9%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.35
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
13Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.3%
5Y Div CAGR
10.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$278M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.7%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
66M
At 2.7%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.57 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.04 | +10.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| 2024 | $1.84 | +12.2% | 1.9% | 3.8% |
| 2023 | $1.64 | +10.8% | 0.3% | 1.8% |
| 2022 | $1.48 | +8.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsOSK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 22 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 14 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $168, implying +7.2% from the current price of $157. The bear case scenario is $86 and the bull case is $234.
02What is the OSK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for OSK is $168 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $197 (+25.7% from today), and the low-end target is $138 (-11.9%). The base case model target is $198.
03Is Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) stock overvalued in 2026?
OSK trades at 14.0x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for OSK in 2026 are: (1) Government Contract Dependency — Approximately 20% of Oshkosh's 2025 net sales are tied to the U. (2) Tariffs and Increased Costs — Tariffs imposed by the U. (3) Segment Performance and Backlog — The Access segment has seen a 42% decline in adjusted operating income and an 18. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Oshkosh Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates OSK will report consensus revenue of $11.0B (+2.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $11.37 (+688.5% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $11.5B in revenue.
06When does Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) report its next earnings?
Oshkosh Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-08. Consensus expects EPS of $1.04 and revenue of $2.3B. Over recent quarters, OSK has beaten EPS estimates 83% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Oshkosh Corporation generate?
Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) generated $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.9%. OSK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.2% yield) and share repurchases ($278M TTM).