Upside case
Bull case
$60-56.7%
The bull case prices OSK at 6x on FY1 earnings, assuming continued execution and no meaningful deceleration in the core business.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
37
analysts
21 bullish · 1 bearish · 37 covering OSK
Strong Buy
0
Buy
21
Hold
15
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$171
+22.7% vs today
Scenario Range
$29 – $60
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
37
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
12.8x
Forward P/E · Market cap $66.5B
OSK price targets
Three scenarios for where OSK stock could go
Current
~$140
Confidence
45 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $140
Bear
$29
Base
$46
Bull
$60
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$46-67.1%
At 4x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$29-79.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 10x multiple contraction could push OSK down roughly 79% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Oshkosh Corporation
OSK · NYSEIndustrialsAgricultural - MachineryDecember year-end
Oshkosh Corporation is a manufacturer of specialty vehicles and equipment for defense, construction, and emergency services. It generates revenue primarily through three segments: Access Equipment (~50% of sales) for construction lifts, Defense (~30%) for military vehicles, and Fire & Emergency (~20%) for firefighting apparatus. The company's moat comes from its deep expertise in specialized vehicle engineering and long-term contracts with government agencies—particularly the U.S. Department of Defense.
Market Cap
$66.5B
Revenue TTM
$10.4B
Net Income TTM
$578M
Net Margin
5.5%
OSK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+13.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$3.41/$2.98
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.8B
Q4 2025
EPS
$3.20/$3.10
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.8B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.26/$2.33
Revenue
$2.7B/$2.6B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.85/$1.04
Revenue
$2.3B/$2.3B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $3.41/$2.98 | +14.4% | $2.7B/$2.8B | -1.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.20/$3.10 | +3.2% | $2.7B/$2.8B | -5.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.26/$2.33 | -3.0% | $2.7B/$2.6B | +3.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.85/$1.04 | -18.3% | $2.3B/$2.3B | +1.1% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$11.0B
+5.3% YoY
FY2
$11.5B
+4.3% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$3.49
+187.9% YoY
FY2
$3.41
-2.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$849M
FCF Margin: 8.1%
Next Earnings
July 31, 2026
Expected EPS
$2.66
Expected Revenue
$2.8B
OSK beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
OSK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2018
Total disclosed revenue $7.7B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Access Equipment
49.0%
+24.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
80.2%
+21.3% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Access Equipment is the largest disclosed segment at 49.0% of FY 2018 revenue, up 24.8% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 80.2%, up 21.3% YoY.
OSK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Expensive versus peers
Fair value est. $93 — implies -33.4% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
33.4%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
OSK
13.9x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
43% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
OSK
13.9x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
46% discount
vs OSK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
13.9x
vs
5Y Average
16.5x
16% discount
Forward PE
12.8x
S&P 500
18.8x
-32%
Industrials
21.2x
-40%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
13.9x
S&P 500
24.4x
-43%
Industrials
25.6x
-46%
5Y Avg
16.5x
-16%
PEG Ratio
0.86x
S&P 500
1.66x
-48%
Industrials
1.65x
-48%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
57.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+280%
Industrials
13.9x
+316%
5Y Avg
15.5x
+274%
Price/FCF
107.7x
S&P 500
20.7x
+420%
Industrials
20.0x
+437%
5Y Avg
30.0x
+259%
Price/Sales
6.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+107%
Industrials
1.6x
+309%
5Y Avg
1.5x
+323%
Dividend Yield
0.25%
S&P 500
1.91%
-87%
Industrials
1.21%
-79%
5Y Avg
1.31%
-81%
| Metric | OSK | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg OSK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 12.8x | 18.8x-32% | 21.2x-40% | — |
| Trailing PE | 13.9x | 24.4x-43% | 25.6x-46% | 16.5x-16% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.86x | 1.66x-48% | 1.65x-48% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 57.8x | 15.2x+280% | 13.9x+316% | 15.5x+274% |
| Price/FCF | 107.7x | 20.7x+420% | 20.0x+437% | 30.0x+259% |
| Price/Sales | 6.4x | 3.1x+107% | 1.6x+309% | 1.5x+323% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.25% | 1.91% | 1.21% | 1.31% |
OSK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolOSK Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
OSK generates $849M in free cash flow at a 8.1% margin — 13.5% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$10.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
-0.7%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
16.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
8.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
5.5%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.21
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$849M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
8.1%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
13.5%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
5.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$480M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.1B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
1.3× FCF
~1.3 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
12.9%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.7%
Dividend
0.3%
Buyback
0.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$278M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.35
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
20.2%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
477M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageOSK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Medium
Valuation Risk
AI models forecast a potential 3.3% decline in stock price to $130.59, indicating possible overvaluation.
High Risk
Competitive Pressure
Benchmarking against competitors like Caterpillar and PACCAR highlights intense industry rivalry.
Medium
Market Sentiment
Mixed analyst ratings and price target predictions suggest uncertainty in market confidence.
Lower
Brand Diversion
Consumer brand association (e.g., OshKosh kids' clothing) may dilute industrial brand focus.
High Risk
Economic Sensitivity
Specialty trucks and equipment demand is cyclical and vulnerable to economic downturns.
Medium
Geographic Concentration
Significant operations in Oshkosh, WI, expose the company to regional economic risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why OSK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Defense contract wins
Oshkosh Defense secured new Common Bridge Transporter orders from the U.S. Army and additional Dutch Expeditionary Patrol Vehicle orders, indicating strong government demand.
Technological innovation leadership
The company showcased AI-, autonomy-, connectivity- and electrification-enabled solutions across multiple industries, positioning itself as a leader in industrial technology.
Diverse industrial applications
Oshkosh manufactures purpose-built vehicles for access, defense, fire & emergency, refuse collection, concrete placement and aviation markets, providing revenue diversification.
Ethical company recognition
Being named one of the World's Most Ethical Companies for 11 consecutive years enhances corporate reputation and investor confidence.
Strong industrial track record
The company maintains a proven history of delivering specialized industrial equipment, demonstrating long-term operational excellence.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
OSK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$139.54
52W Range Position
45%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$106.37
+31.2% from the low
52-Week High
$180.49
-22.7% from the high
1 Month
+14.42%
3 Month
-5.20%
YTD
+5.5%
1 Year
+27.3%
3Y CAGR
+18.7%
5Y CAGR
+3.6%
10Y CAGR
+11.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
OSK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
12.8x
vs 21.0x median
-39% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.3%
vs +2.0% median
+159% above peer median
Net Margin
5.5%
vs 2.1% median
+160% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OSK OSK Oshkosh Corporation | $66.5B | 12.8x | +5.3% | 5.5% | Buy | +22.7% |
CMI CMI Cummins Inc. | $99.0B | 24.7x | +6.3% | 7.9% | Buy | +4.6% |
PCA PCAR PACCAR Inc | $62.6B | 21.0x | +0.3% | 9.1% | Hold | +7.1% |
CNH CNH CNH Industrial N.V. | $13.0B | 25.8x | -1.8% | 2.1% | Buy | +25.1% |
TEX TEX Terex Corporation | $4.4B | 13.6x | +14.3% | 1.9% | Hold | +21.7% |
MAN MAN ManpowerGroup Inc. | $1.6B | 9.1x | +2.0% | -0.1% | Hold | +12.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
OSK Dividend and Capital Return
OSK returns capital mainly through $278M/year in buybacks (0.4% buyback yield), with a modest 0.25% dividend — combining for 0.7% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 13 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
0.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.4%
Dividend Yield
0.25%
Payout Ratio
20.2%
How OSK Splits Its Return
Div 0.25%
Buyback 0.4%
Dividend 0.25%Buybacks 0.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.35
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
13Y
3Y Div CAGR
11.3%
5Y Div CAGR
10.6%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$278M
Estimated Shares Retired
2M
Approx. Share Reduction
0.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
477M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.14 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $2.04 | +10.9% | 0.6% | 0.9% |
| 2024 | $1.84 | +12.2% | 1.9% | 3.8% |
| 2023 | $1.64 | +10.8% | 0.3% | 1.8% |
| 2022 | $1.48 | +8.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% |
FAQ
7 questionsOSK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 37 analysts covering the stock, 21 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $171, implying +22.7% from the current price of $140. The bear case scenario is $29 and the bull case is $60.
02What is the OSK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for OSK is $171 based on 37 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $197 (+41.2% from today), and the low-end target is $138 (-1.1%). The base case model target is $46.
03Is Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) stock overvalued in 2026?
OSK trades at 12.8x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals expensive versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for OSK in 2026 are: (1) Competitive Pressure — Benchmarking against competitors like Caterpillar and PACCAR highlights intense industry rivalry. (2) Economic Sensitivity — Specialty trucks and equipment demand is cyclical and vulnerable to economic downturns. (3) Valuation Risk — AI models forecast a potential 3. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Oshkosh Corporation's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates OSK will report consensus revenue of $11.0B (+5.3% year-over-year) and EPS of $3.49 (+187.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $11.5B in revenue.
06When does Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) report its next earnings?
Oshkosh Corporation is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-07-31. Consensus expects EPS of $2.66 and revenue of $2.8B. Over recent quarters, OSK has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Oshkosh Corporation generate?
Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) generated $849M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 8.1%. OSK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.3% yield) and share repurchases ($278M TTM).