Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing PSNY more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewSellUpdated May 1, 2026
Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (PSNY) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Sell
Covering
5
analysts
0 bullish · 3 bearish · 5 covering PSNY
Strong Buy
0
Buy
0
Hold
2
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$15
-22.8% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
5
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $41.0B
PSNY price targets
Three scenarios for where PSNY stock could go
Current
~$19
Confidence
18 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC
PSNY · NASDAQConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersDecember year-end
Polestar is a premium electric vehicle manufacturer that designs, develops, and sells high-performance electric cars. It generates revenue primarily through vehicle sales—with its Polestar 2 sedan as the current volume driver—and through future planned models like the Polestar 3 SUV and Polestar 4 coupe SUV. The company benefits from its strategic partnership with Volvo Cars and Geely, which provides manufacturing expertise, shared technology platforms, and established distribution networks.
Market Cap
$41.0B
Revenue TTM
$2.6B
Net Income TTM
-$2.3B
Net Margin
-89.0%
PSNY Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
18%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-1189.6%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q1 2025
Q2 2025
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q1 2025
EPS
$-0.15/$-0.15
Revenue
$564M/$792M
Q2 2025
EPS
$-8.46/$-0.12
Revenue
$711M/$572M
Q2 2025
EPS
$-1.07/$-0.13
Revenue
$564M/$730M
Q3 2025
EPS
$-8.46/$-0.12
Revenue
$711M/—
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $-0.15/$-0.15 | +0.0% | $564M/$792M | -28.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $-8.46/$-0.12 | -6893.5% | $711M/$572M | +24.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $-1.07/$-0.13 | -723.1% | $564M/$730M | -22.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $-8.46/$-0.12 | -6779.8% | $711M/— | — |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.0B
+18.7% YoY
FY2
$3.8B
+24.1% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-2.03
-89.4% YoY
FY2
$-1.88
+7.5% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$1.5B
FCF Margin: -57.7%
Next Earnings
May 8, 2026
Expected EPS
$-1.96
Expected Revenue
$749M
PSNY beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
PSNY Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $15M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Other Revenue
100.0%
-27.9% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED KINGDOM
19.8%
-24.1% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Other Revenue is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2024 revenue, down 27.9% YoY.
UNITED KINGDOM is the largest reported region at 19.8%, down 24.1% YoY.
PSNY Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $5 — implies -73.8% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
73.8%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
PSNY
-20.0x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
179% discount
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
PSNY
-20.0x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
202% discount
vs PSNY 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-20.0x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Consumer Cyclical
15.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-20.0x
S&P 500
25.2x
-179%
Consumer Cyclical
19.6x
-202%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Consumer Cyclical
0.95x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.3x
—
Consumer Cyclical
11.4x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.3x
—
Consumer Cyclical
15.0x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
20.2x
S&P 500
3.1x
+543%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+2733%
5Y Avg
6.5x
+209%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.88%
—
Consumer Cyclical
2.15%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | PSNY | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg PSNY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 15.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | -20.0x | 25.2x-179% | 19.6x-202% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 0.95x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.3x | 11.4x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.3x | 15.0x | — |
| Price/Sales | 20.2x | 3.1x+543% | 0.7x+2733% | 6.5x+209% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.88% | 2.15% | — |
PSNY trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolPSNY Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for PSNY are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.6B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+23.5%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
-32.5%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-95.8%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-89.0%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-1.07
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$1.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-57.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-109.3%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-62.4%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$739M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$4.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
2.1B
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pagePSNY Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Profitability & Cash Burn
Polestar has a negative P/E ratio and reported a significantly negative gross margin in Q2 2025 and the first half of 2025, worse than initially estimated. Its free cash flow margin stands at -52%, indicating a steep cash burn that will likely force additional debt or equity financing in the near term.
High Risk
Bankruptcy Risk
The company’s probability of bankruptcy is estimated at 14%, with a solvency score of 24/100. This moderate financial fragility signals a meaningful chance of default, especially given its negative equity performance.
Medium
Liquidity Constraints
Polestar’s current ratio is 0.58 and quick ratio 0.38, meaning current assets are insufficient to cover short‑term liabilities. These ratios highlight acute liquidity challenges that could impede day‑to‑day operations.
Medium
High Debt Burden
With a debt‑to‑equity ratio of 2.15 and total debt of $2.5 billion, Polestar carries more debt than equity, increasing financial risk and interest obligations. This leverage profile limits flexibility for future investment or downturns.
Lower
Competitive Pricing Pressure
The EV market is experiencing aggressive price wars, exemplified by Tesla’s cuts, and Polestar lacks the capacity to match such reductions. Intense competition can erode margins and market share, threatening sales growth.
Lower
Supply Chain Vulnerability
Polestar relies on China‑based manufacturing and single‑source suppliers, exposing it to regulatory, economic, and policy uncertainties. Supply chain disruptions could raise costs and delay production, impacting delivery schedules.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why PSNY Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Product Pipeline & Market Expansion
Polestar plans a significant model offensive with four new cars by 2028, including the Polestar 5, a new Polestar 4 variant, a next‑generation Polestar 2, and the Polestar 7 compact SUV. This lineup expansion is aimed at capturing broader market segments and driving future sales growth.
Robust Retail Network Growth
The company is expanding its retail network to around 250 sales locations by the end of 2026, representing a 20% increase from the end of 2025. This expansion is expected to enhance market reach and support higher sales volumes.
Strong Financial Backing
Polestar secured a $300 million equity investment and converted a $274 million Volvo Cars shareholder loan into equity. Additionally, it secured about $700 million in funding for 2025‑2026 to support operations and production targets.
Resilient Q1 Sales Performance
Polestar posted its highest ever first‑quarter retail sales, with strong growth in key regions such as Australia, Germany, Sweden, South Korea, and the UK. The company is accelerating growth through an active selling model while streamlining operations and reducing costs.
Sustainability Commitment
Polestar aims to halve per‑vehicle greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and achieve climate neutrality by 2040. Its design strategy emphasizes Scandinavian interiors and a balance of digital and physical controls, positioning the brand as a sustainability leader in the EV market.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
PSNY Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$19.43
52W Range Position
82%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$0.50
+3762.8% from the low
52-Week High
$23.49
-17.3% from the high
1 Month
-2.02%
3 Month
+0.05%
YTD
-1.9%
1 Year
+1715.9%
3Y CAGR
+67.7%
5Y CAGR
+14.2%
10Y CAGR
+6.9%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
PSNY vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 108.7x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+18.7%
vs +26.2% median
-29% below peer median
Net Margin
-89.0%
vs -35.0% median
-154% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PSN PSNY Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC | $41.0B | — | +18.7% | -89.0% | Sell | -22.8% |
RIV RIVN Rivian Automotive, Inc. | $17.9B | — | +25.5% | -63.6% | Buy | +26.7% |
LCI LCID Lucid Group, Inc. | $2.0B | — | +58.9% | -300.4% | Hold | +126.2% |
TSL TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $1.50T | 206.1x | +5.0% | 4.0% | Hold | +13.0% |
NIO NIO NIO Inc. | $12.4B | — | +45.7% | -35.0% | Buy | +9.1% |
LI LI Li Auto Inc. | $35.6B | 11.4x | +26.2% | 3.6% | Buy | +12.9% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsPSNY Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (PSNY) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (PSNY) is rated Sell by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 5 analysts covering the stock, 0 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 2 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $15, implying -22.8% from the current price of $19.
02What is the PSNY stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for PSNY is $15 based on 5 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $15 (-22.8% from today), and the low-end target is $15 (-22.8%).
03Is Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (PSNY) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for PSNY is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (PSNY) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for PSNY in 2026 are: (1) Profitability & Cash Burn — Polestar has a negative P/E ratio and reported a significantly negative gross margin in Q2 2025 and the first half of 2025, worse than initially estimated. (2) Bankruptcy Risk — The company’s probability of bankruptcy is estimated at 14%, with a solvency score of 24/100. (3) Liquidity Constraints — Polestar’s current ratio is 0. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates PSNY will report consensus revenue of $3.0B (+18.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $-2.03 (-89.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.8B in revenue.
06When does Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (PSNY) report its next earnings?
Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-08. Consensus expects EPS of $-1.96 and revenue of $749M. Over recent quarters, PSNY has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC generate?
Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC (PSNY) had a free cash outflow of $1.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 57.7%. PSNY returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).