Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing RKLB more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
19
analysts
14 bullish · 1 bearish · 19 covering RKLB
Strong Buy
0
Buy
14
Hold
4
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$104
-3.1% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $62.1B
RKLB price targets
Three scenarios for where RKLB stock could go
Current
~$107
Confidence
46 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Rocket Lab USA, Inc.
RKLB · NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseDecember year-end
Rocket Lab is a space technology company that provides small satellite launch services and manufactures spacecraft components. It generates revenue primarily through launch services—using its Electron rocket—and space systems sales including satellite platforms and components, with government contracts representing a significant portion. The company's key advantage is its proven, reliable small launch vehicle platform and vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities that allow rapid, cost-effective access to space.
Market Cap
$62.1B
Revenue TTM
$680M
Net Income TTM
-$183M
Net Margin
-26.9%
RKLB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+9.8%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.10/$-0.10
Revenue
$144M/$135M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.01/$-0.10
Revenue
$155M/$152M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.09/$-0.10
Revenue
$180M/$177M
Q2 2026
EPS
$-0.07/$-0.07
Revenue
$200M/$190M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $-0.10/$-0.10 | -5.0% | $144M/$135M | +6.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.01/$-0.10 | +110.1% | $155M/$152M | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.09/$-0.10 | +8.9% | $180M/$177M | +1.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $-0.07/$-0.07 | -4.4% | $200M/$190M | +5.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$793M
+16.7% YoY
FY2
$949M
+19.6% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.29
+2.4% YoY
FY2
$-0.25
+15.6% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$316M
FCF Margin: -46.5%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.05
Expected Revenue
$232M
RKLB beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
RKLB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $436M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Space Systems
71.3%
+80.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
61.5%
+45.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Space Systems is the largest disclosed segment at 71.3% of FY 2024 revenue, up 80.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 61.5%, up 45.2% YoY.
RKLB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Relative Valuation
Benchmark comparison across market, sector, and history below.
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RKLB
-289.8x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
1285% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
RKLB
-289.8x
vs
Industrials
25.6x
1233% discount
vs RKLB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-289.8x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
18.8x
—
Industrials
21.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-289.8x
S&P 500
24.4x
-1285%
Industrials
25.6x
-1233%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.66x
—
Industrials
1.65x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Industrials
13.9x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
20.7x
—
Industrials
20.0x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
103.1x
S&P 500
3.1x
+3236%
Industrials
1.6x
+6501%
5Y Avg
16.1x
+542%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Industrials
1.21%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | RKLB | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg RKLB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 18.8x | 21.2x | — |
| Trailing PE | -289.8x | 24.4x-1285% | 25.6x-1233% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.66x | 1.65x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 13.9x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 20.7x | 20.0x | — |
| Price/Sales | 103.1x | 3.1x+3236% | 1.6x+6501% | 16.1x+542% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.21% | — |
RKLB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRKLB Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for RKLB are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$680M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+45.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
36.6%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-33.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-26.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.30
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$316M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-46.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-19.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-8.2%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$829M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$575M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-12.3%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-19.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
579M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageRKLB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
High Risk
Stock Performance
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) stock has slipped into a local bear market after falling by 25% from its highest point this year.
High Risk
Market Capitalization
The company's market capitalization has fallen significantly from its peak, indicating investor concerns.
Medium
Valuation Risk
RKLB stock is considered expensive, with potential risks related to valuation de-rating.
Medium
Financial Health
Deep Value Report highlights concerns about financial health and distress indicators.
Lower
Competitive Landscape
The space technology sector is highly competitive, with Rocket Lab facing challenges in maintaining its market position.
Medium
Revenue Growth
Concerns exist about the sustainability of launch revenue and space systems growth.
High Risk
Guidance Systems
The reliance on rocket guidance systems introduces operational and technological risks.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RKLB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 17, 2026
Diversified aerospace platform
Rocket Lab is evolving from a launch company into a broader aerospace and defense platform, with Neutron, Space Systems, and defense contracts contributing to growth.
Expanding addressable market
Neutron expands Rocket Lab's total addressable market by roughly 10×, shifting from the ~$10B small-launch market into the ~$100B+ medium-lift segment, offering significant revenue potential.
Integrated space value chain
Rocket Lab is compressing the space value chain into one operating platform, including launch services, spacecraft components, propulsion, satellite infrastructure, and defense mission integration.
Record backlog growth
The company's record backlog supports the bull case, indicating strong future revenue streams from existing contracts and demand.
Accelerating launch cadence
Rocket Lab's accelerating Electron launch cadence demonstrates operational execution and growing demand for its launch services.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RKLB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$107.24
52W Range Position
65%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$26.23
+308.8% from the low
52-Week High
$151.00
-29.0% from the high
1 Month
-18.29%
3 Month
+54.35%
YTD
+41.1%
1 Year
+285.1%
3Y CAGR
+164.3%
5Y CAGR
+59.5%
10Y CAGR
+27.1%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RKLB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 17.1x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+16.7%
vs +7.8% median
+113% above peer median
Net Margin
-26.9%
vs -573.7% median
+95% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RKL RKLB Rocket Lab USA, Inc. | $62.1B | — | +16.7% | -26.9% | Buy | -3.1% |
SPC SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. | $222M | — | 0.0% | -19781.3% | Hold | -15.7% |
MNT MNTS Momentus Inc. | $46M | — | +108.2% | -843.8% | — | — |
AST ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | $24.1B | — | +14.2% | -573.7% | Hold | +24.0% |
BA BA The Boeing Company | $175.6B | — | +7.8% | 2.5% | Buy | +26.4% |
LMT LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | $117.8B | 17.1x | +4.8% | 6.4% | Buy | +24.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsRKLB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $104, implying -3.1% from the current price of $107.
02What is the RKLB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RKLB is $104 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $135 (+25.9% from today), and the low-end target is $69 (-35.7%).
03Is Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for RKLB is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RKLB in 2026 are: (1) Stock Performance — Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (2) Market Capitalization — The company's market capitalization has fallen significantly from its peak, indicating investor concerns. (3) Guidance Systems — The reliance on rocket guidance systems introduces operational and technological risks. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Rocket Lab USA, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RKLB will report consensus revenue of $793M (+16.7% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.29 (+2.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $949M in revenue.
06When does Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) report its next earnings?
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.05 and revenue of $232M. Over recent quarters, RKLB has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Rocket Lab USA, Inc. generate?
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) had a free cash outflow of $316M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 46.5%. RKLB returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).