Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing RKLB more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
18
analysts
13 bullish · 1 bearish · 18 covering RKLB
Strong Buy
0
Buy
13
Hold
4
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$92
+17.2% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
18
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
—
Forward P/E · Market cap $45.3B
RKLB price targets
Three scenarios for where RKLB stock could go
Current
~$79
Confidence
32 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Rocket Lab USA, Inc.
RKLB · NASDAQIndustrialsAerospace & DefenseDecember year-end
Rocket Lab is a space technology company that provides small satellite launch services and manufactures spacecraft components. It generates revenue primarily through launch services—using its Electron rocket—and space systems sales including satellite platforms and components, with government contracts representing a significant portion. The company's key advantage is its proven, reliable small launch vehicle platform and vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities that allow rapid, cost-effective access to space.
Market Cap
$45.3B
Revenue TTM
$602M
Net Income TTM
-$198M
Net Margin
-32.9%
RKLB Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+10.2%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q2 2025
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 2 of 4Q2 2025
EPS
$-0.12/$-0.11
Revenue
$123M/$121M
Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.10/$-0.10
Revenue
$144M/$135M
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.01/$-0.10
Revenue
$155M/$152M
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.09/$-0.10
Revenue
$180M/$177M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | $-0.12/$-0.11 | -12.6% | $123M/$121M | +1.0% |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.10/$-0.10 | -5.0% | $144M/$135M | +6.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.01/$-0.10 | +110.1% | $155M/$152M | +2.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.09/$-0.10 | +8.9% | $180M/$177M | +1.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$825M
+37.1% YoY
FY2
$1.1B
+36.4% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-0.30
+14.3% YoY
FY2
$-0.24
+18.4% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$322M
FCF Margin: -53.5%
Next Earnings
May 7, 2026
Expected EPS
$-0.04
Expected Revenue
$190M
RKLB beat EPS estimates in 2 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
RKLB Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $436M
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Space Systems
71.3%
+80.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
61.5%
+45.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Space Systems is the largest disclosed segment at 71.3% of FY 2024 revenue, up 80.0% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 61.5%, up 45.2% YoY.
RKLB Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $15 — implies -81.3% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
81.3%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RKLB
-212.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
948% discount
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
RKLB
-212.9x
vs
Industrials
25.7x
930% discount
vs RKLB 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-212.9x
vs
5Y Average
—
Benchmark unavailable
Forward PE
—
S&P 500
19.1x
—
Industrials
20.7x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-212.9x
S&P 500
25.1x
-948%
Industrials
25.7x
-930%
5Y Avg
—
—
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.72x
—
Industrials
1.64x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
—
S&P 500
15.2x
—
Industrials
13.7x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/FCF
—
S&P 500
21.1x
—
Industrials
21.2x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
Price/Sales
75.4x
S&P 500
3.1x
+2310%
Industrials
1.6x
+4654%
5Y Avg
16.1x
+369%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.87%
—
Industrials
1.27%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | RKLB | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg RKLB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | — | 19.1x | 20.7x | — |
| Trailing PE | -212.9x | 25.1x-948% | 25.7x-930% | — |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.72x | 1.64x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | — | 15.2x | 13.7x | — |
| Price/FCF | — | 21.1x | 21.2x | — |
| Price/Sales | 75.4x | 3.1x+2310% | 1.6x+4654% | 16.1x+369% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.87% | 1.27% | — |
RKLB trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 2 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRKLB Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
Key financial metrics for RKLB are shown below.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$602M
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+38.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
34.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
-38.0%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-32.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-0.35
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$322M
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-53.5%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
-19.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-10.8%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$829M
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$575M
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE *
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-19.2%
* Elevated by buyback-compressed equity — compare ROIC (-19.9%) for an undistorted picture of capital efficiency.
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.0%
Dividend
—
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
576M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt). ROE marked * where buyback-compressed equity base may inflate the figure.
Open full ratios pageRKLB Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Profitability & Cash Burn
Rocket Lab has posted net losses of $198.2M in 2025, $190.2M in 2024, and $182.6M in 2023. The company expects continued losses for at least the next 12 months and may never reach profitability, requiring additional equity raises that could dilute shareholders.
High Risk
Launch Reliability & Timing
The company faces manufacturing delays, damage during pre‑launch, and outright launch failures that can erode revenue and reputation. Neutron rocket’s debut has been pushed from 2024 to 2026 or later, adding costs and raising doubts about meeting future contracts.
Medium
Competitive Landscape
Rocket Lab competes with established players like SpaceX and Blue Origin; its Neutron rocket has lower payload capacity than SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and faces aggressive pricing competition. Loss of market share or contract acquisition could materially reduce revenue.
Medium
Macro‑Economic & Geopolitical Risks
Inflation, rising interest rates, and potential recessions can reduce customers’ spending on launch services. Geopolitical events such as wars increase market volatility and could impact demand for space systems.
Lower
Cybersecurity Threats
Disruptions to Rocket Lab’s computer systems, including cyber‑attacks, could impair operations, delay launches, and expose sensitive data.
Lower
Insider Selling Pressure
Notable insider selling of shares may signal management concerns and could weigh on investor sentiment.
Lower
Regulatory & Contractual Compliance
Failure to meet contractual requirements or comply with regulatory hurdles could delay launches, incur penalties, or force costly redesigns.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RKLB Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Vertical Integration Boosts Revenue Mix
Rocket Lab has expanded beyond launch services into satellite development, spacecraft components, and on-orbit management, capturing a broader share of the space market. Strategic acquisitions reinforce this integration, enabling higher margins and diversified income streams.
Electron Rocket 100% Success Rate
The Electron launch vehicle has maintained a flawless record, achieving 100% mission success in 2025 to date. This reliability differentiates Rocket Lab in a competitive launch market and supports repeat launch cadence.
Neutron Rocket Expands Payload Capacity
The next‑generation Neutron rocket is a reusable, medium‑lift vehicle that can carry substantially more mass than Electron, opening a larger addressable market. Its development is expected to significantly increase Rocket Lab’s revenue potential.
Major $816M Government Contract
Rocket Lab secured a $816 million award from the U.S. Space Development Agency for advanced satellites, underscoring its role in national security and defense. This contract adds a sizable, high‑value backlog to the company’s pipeline.
41% CAGR Revenue Growth Forecast
Despite current losses, Rocket Lab’s revenue is scaling rapidly, with analysts projecting a 41% compound annual growth rate over the next three years. Gross margins are improving, indicating a path toward profitability.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RKLB Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$78.76
52W Range Position
74%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$20.23
+289.3% from the low
52-Week High
$99.58
-20.9% from the high
1 Month
+16.39%
3 Month
+18.76%
YTD
+3.6%
1 Year
+250.4%
3Y CAGR
+173.5%
5Y CAGR
+50.3%
10Y CAGR
+23.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RKLB vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
—
vs 2426.4x median
Peer median unavailable
Revenue Growth
+37.1%
vs +14.0% median
+165% above peer median
Net Margin
-32.9%
vs -482.2% median
+93% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RKL RKLB Rocket Lab USA, Inc. | $45.3B | — | +37.1% | -32.9% | Buy | +17.2% |
SPC SPCE Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. | $155M | — | +352.6% | -17615.7% | Hold | +8.2% |
MNT MNTS Momentus Inc. | $3M | — | -63.8% | -3445.3% | — | — |
AST ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc. | $18.7B | — | +54.1% | -482.2% | Buy | +62.3% |
BA BA The Boeing Company | $176.9B | 4835.8x | +14.0% | 2.5% | Buy | +17.5% |
LMT LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | $117.3B | 17.0x | +5.1% | 6.4% | Buy | +24.8% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
FAQ
7 questionsRKLB Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 18 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $92, implying +17.2% from the current price of $79.
02What is the RKLB stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RKLB is $92 based on 18 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $105 (+33.3% from today), and the low-end target is $69 (-12.4%).
03Is Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) stock overvalued in 2026?
Forward earnings data for RKLB is not currently available. Review the valuation table above for trailing P/E, EV/EBITDA, and price-to-sales comparisons against market and sector benchmarks.
04What are the main risks for Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RKLB in 2026 are: (1) Profitability & Cash Burn — Rocket Lab has posted net losses of $198. (2) Launch Reliability & Timing — The company faces manufacturing delays, damage during pre‑launch, and outright launch failures that can erode revenue and reputation. (3) Competitive Landscape — Rocket Lab competes with established players like SpaceX and Blue Origin; its Neutron rocket has lower payload capacity than SpaceX’s Falcon 9 and faces aggressive pricing competition. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Rocket Lab USA, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RKLB will report consensus revenue of $825M (+37.1% year-over-year) and EPS of $-0.30 (+14.3% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $1.1B in revenue.
06When does Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) report its next earnings?
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-05-07. Consensus expects EPS of $-0.04 and revenue of $190M. Over recent quarters, RKLB has beaten EPS estimates 42% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Rocket Lab USA, Inc. generate?
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) had a free cash outflow of $322M in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 53.5%. RKLB returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($0 TTM).