Upside case
Bull case
—
The bull case requires both strong earnings delivery and the market pricing SBSW more generously than it does today.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
12
analysts
4 bullish · 3 bearish · 12 covering SBSW
Strong Buy
0
Buy
4
Hold
5
Sell
3
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$18
+35.9% vs today
Scenario Range
— – —
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
12
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
0.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $9.5B
SBSW price targets
Three scenarios for where SBSW stock could go
Current
~$13
Confidence
33 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
—
The base case reflects analyst consensus expectations — steady delivery without requiring a major catalyst or re-rating.
Stress case
Bear case
—
The bear case reflects a scenario where earnings shortfalls or multiple compression combine to materially reduce the stock from its current level.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Sibanye Stillwater Limited
SBSW · NYSEBasic MaterialsGoldDecember year-end
Sibanye Stillwater is a global precious metals mining company that extracts gold and platinum group metals (PGMs) like palladium and platinum from mines across multiple continents. It generates revenue primarily from selling mined gold and PGMs — with PGMs contributing roughly two-thirds of revenue and gold about one-third — supplemented by recycling operations and by-product sales. The company's competitive advantage lies in its geographically diversified portfolio of high-quality, long-life mining assets and its position as one of the world's largest primary producers of palladium and platinum.
Market Cap
$9.5B
Revenue TTM
$238.3B
Net Income TTM
-$12.4B
Net Margin
-5.2%
SBSW Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
55%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
67%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+683.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2024
Q1 2025
Q3 2025
Q1 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2024
EPS
$-0.15/$-0.11
Revenue
$3.0B/$2.5B
Q1 2025
EPS
$0.00/$-0.01
Revenue
$3.0B/$2.7B
Q3 2025
EPS
$-0.29/$0.13
Revenue
$3.1B/$3.0B
Q1 2026
EPS
$-0.14/$0.55
Revenue
$4.7B/$3.9B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | $-0.15/$-0.11 | -32.0% | $3.0B/$2.5B | +19.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.00/$-0.01 | +137.4% | $3.0B/$2.7B | +9.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $-0.29/$0.13 | -320.8% | $3.1B/$3.0B | +1.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $-0.14/$0.55 | -125.4% | $4.7B/$3.9B | +20.6% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$233.1B
-2.2% YoY
FY2
$236.9B
+1.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$-8.68
+50.4% YoY
FY2
$-11.90
-37.1% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)-$9.5B
FCF Margin: -4.0%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
SBSW beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
SBSW Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2024
Total disclosed revenue $166.9B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Pgm Mining Activities
35.7%
-16.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
89.2%
-3.0% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Pgm Mining Activities is the largest disclosed segment at 35.7% of FY 2024 revenue, down 16.2% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 89.2%, down 3.0% YoY.
SBSW Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Undervalued
Fair value est. $419 — implies +3374.8% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
3374.8%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
SBSW
-32.6x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
229% discount
vs Basic Materials Trailing P/E
SBSW
-32.6x
vs
Basic Materials
22.9x
243% discount
vs SBSW 5Y Avg P/E
Today
-32.6x
vs
5Y Average
0.3x
9595% discount
Forward PE
0.3x
S&P 500
19.1x
-99%
Basic Materials
15.4x
-98%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
-32.6x
S&P 500
25.2x
-229%
Basic Materials
22.9x
-243%
5Y Avg
0.3x
-9595%
PEG Ratio
—
S&P 500
1.75x
—
Basic Materials
1.22x
—
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
5.8x
S&P 500
15.3x
-62%
Basic Materials
11.4x
-49%
5Y Avg
1.1x
+432%
Price/FCF
93.2x
S&P 500
21.3x
+337%
Basic Materials
27.5x
+239%
5Y Avg
3.2x
+2789%
Price/Sales
1.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
-58%
Basic Materials
2.0x
-33%
5Y Avg
0.0x
+2554%
Dividend Yield
0.18%
S&P 500
1.88%
-91%
Basic Materials
1.37%
-87%
5Y Avg
5.09%
-97%
| Metric | SBSW | S&P 500 | Basic Materials | 5Y Avg SBSW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 0.3x | 19.1x-99% | 15.4x-98% | — |
| Trailing PE | -32.6x | 25.2x-229% | 22.9x-243% | 0.3x-9595% |
| PEG Ratio | — | 1.75x | 1.22x | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.8x | 15.3x-62% | 11.4x-49% | 1.1x+432% |
| Price/FCF | 93.2x | 21.3x+337% | 27.5x+239% | 3.2x+2789% |
| Price/Sales | 1.3x | 3.1x-58% | 2.0x-33% | 0.0x+2554% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.18% | 1.88% | 1.37% | 5.09% |
SBSW trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 1 of 5 measured multiples — appears modestly priced relative to the S&P 500 on most measures.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolSBSW Financial Health
Verdict
Stressed
SBSW 22.9% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$238.3B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+9.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
21.2%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
18.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
-5.2%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$-17.51
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
-$9.5B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
-4.0%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
22.9%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
-8.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$17.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$27.2B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
—
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
-28.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
0.2%
Dividend
0.2%
Buyback
0.0%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$0
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.40
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count
708M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageSBSW Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
Based on the latest company results, valuation, and market data
High Risk
UNITED STATES exposure
UNITED STATES represents 89.2% of disclosed revenue and changed -3.0% year over year. A sharper slowdown, policy change, or competitive shift in that market would hit the revenue base quickly and could pull expectations toward the lower end of the valuation range.
Medium
Pgm Mining Activities dependence
Pgm Mining Activities contributes 35.7% of the disclosed revenue mix, with the latest annual change at -16.2%. If demand in the lead segment cools, the rest of the portfolio may not be large enough to fully offset the slowdown.
Medium
Valuation de-rating
SBSW trades at -32.6x trailing earnings versus 25.2x for the S&P 500 and 22.9x for its sector. If earnings delivery or sentiment slips, the stock could re-rate lower and move closer to the bear case target of —.
Medium
Estimate execution
The next fiscal year requires Street estimates of $233.1B in revenue (-2.2% growth) and $-8.68 in EPS. Missing those operating targets would undermine the premium multiple investors are paying today.
Lower
Capital return support
Part of the per-share support comes from capital returns, backed by -$9.5B in trailing free cash flow, a 0.0% buyback yield, and a 0.2% dividend yield. If cash generation softens, the EPS lift and downside cushion from repurchases can narrow.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why SBSW Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
Based on recent company results and analyst estimates
High-margin cash engine
Sibanye Stillwater Limited already operates from a position of scale, with 21.2% gross margin, 18.9% operating margin, and -$9.5B in trailing free cash flow. That combination gives management room to keep funding product investment without relying on outside capital.
Other Product Or Service still matters
Other Product Or Service accounts for 0.6% of disclosed revenue and the latest annual change was 37.1%. When the biggest revenue lines are still holding up, even modest execution improvement can translate into meaningful earnings leverage.
Upside and capital returns align
Consensus still points to $18, or 35.9% upside, while the modeled bull target reaches —. If $233.1B in forward revenue and $-8.68 in EPS are delivered, ongoing shareholder returns running at 0.2% can amplify the equity upside.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
SBSW Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$13.44
52W Range Position
53%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$4.52
+197.3% from the low
52-Week High
$21.29
-36.9% from the high
1 Month
+7.69%
3 Month
-18.30%
YTD
-7.1%
1 Year
+171.5%
3Y CAGR
+11.6%
5Y CAGR
-6.8%
10Y CAGR
-1.0%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
SBSW vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
0.3x
vs 12.3x median
-98% below peer median
Revenue Growth
-2.2%
vs +33.4% median
-107% below peer median
Net Margin
-5.2%
vs 33.3% median
-116% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SBS SBSW Sibanye Stillwater Limited | $9.5B | 0.3x | -2.2% | -5.2% | Hold | +35.9% |
PAL PAL Proficient Auto Logistics, Inc. Common Stock | $203M | 21.4x | +42.5% | -7.8% | Buy | +63.9% |
SA SA Seabridge Gold Inc. | $3.2B | — | — | — | Buy | — |
NEM NEM Newmont Corporation | $127.5B | 11.0x | +35.1% | 30.5% | Buy | +19.5% |
AEM AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | $95.1B | 13.6x | +31.7% | 37.5% | Buy | +25.2% |
KGC KGC Kinross Gold Corporation | $36.9B | 9.8x | +29.7% | 36.0% | Buy | +37.3% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
SBSW Dividend and Capital Return
SBSW returns 0.2% total yield, led by a 0.18% dividend.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
0.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
0.0%
Dividend Yield
0.18%
Payout Ratio
—
How SBSW Splits Its Return
Div 0.18%
Dividend 0.18%Buybacks 0.0%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.40
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
1Y
3Y Div CAGR
-69.1%
5Y Div CAGR
-30.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Annual
1 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$0
Estimated Shares Retired
0
Approx. Share Reduction
0.0%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
708M
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.33 | — | — | — |
| 2023 | $0.38 | -53.7% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2022 | $0.82 | -51.1% | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 2021 | $1.67 | +1308.7% | 92.7% | 100.0% |
| 2020 | $0.12 | — | 0.8% | 16.1% |
FAQ
7 questionsSBSW Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 12 analysts covering the stock, 4 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 5 rate it Hold, and 3 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $18, implying +35.9% from the current price of $13.
02What is the SBSW stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for SBSW is $18 based on 12 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $25 (+84.5% from today), and the low-end target is $12 (-10.7%).
03Is Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW) stock overvalued in 2026?
SBSW trades at 0.3x times forward earnings. The stock currently trades at a discount to the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for SBSW in 2026 are: (1) UNITED STATES exposure — UNITED STATES represents 89. (2) Pgm Mining Activities dependence — Pgm Mining Activities contributes 35. (3) Valuation de-rating — SBSW trades at -32. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Sibanye Stillwater Limited's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates SBSW will report consensus revenue of $233.1B (-2.2% year-over-year) and EPS of $-8.68 (+50.4% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $236.9B in revenue.
06When does Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for SBSW is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Sibanye Stillwater Limited generate?
Sibanye Stillwater Limited (SBSW) had a free cash outflow of $9.5B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 4.0%. SBSW returns capital to shareholders through dividends (0.2% yield) and share repurchases ($0 TTM).