TPH trades 15.5% above Wall Street's consensus target of $39.67.
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
The base valuation assumes TPH achieves its forward estimates and maintains a stable P/E multiple of 24.5x. This scenario reflects the blended consensus of 22 Wall Street analysts, balancing both positive catalysts and macroeconomic headwinds over the next 12 months.
As of September 24, 2026, Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. (TPH) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $39.67, based on estimates from 22 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $46.96, this represents a potential downside of -15.5%. The company has a market capitalization of $4.00B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $19.00 to a high of $54.00, representing a 88% spread in expectations. The median target of $42.00 differs from the mean, suggesting potential outlier estimates. The wide target spread reflects significant disagreement on fair value.
The current analyst consensus rating is Hold, with 9 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,13 rating it Hold, and 0 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The mixed ratings reflect uncertainty about near-term direction.
From a valuation perspective, TPH trades at a trailing P/E of 17.3x and forward P/E of 24.5x. The forward PEG ratio of 5.30 reflects a premium valuation. Analysts expect EPS to grow +589.6% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $58.95, with bear and bull scenarios of $37.14 and $77.67 respectively. Model confidence stands at 43/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside Potential | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MHOM/I Homes, Inc. | $3.6B | $137.77 | $172.00 | +24.8% | Hold | 11.4x | 10 |
 TMHCTaylor Morrison Home Corporation | $7.1B | $72.45 | $73.50 | +1.4% | Hold | 13.7x | 31 |
 SKYChampion Homes, Inc. | $4.7B | $85.46 | $107.67 | +26.0% | Buy | 22.7x | 9 |
 GRBKGreen Brick Partners, Inc. | $2.9B | $67.21 | — | — | Hold | 10.9x | 12 |
 CCSCentury Communities, Inc. | $1.7B | $61.40 | $60.67 | -1.2% | Buy | 12.5x | 12 |
 DHID.R. Horton, Inc. | $39.2B | $140.17 | $160.00 | +14.1% | Hold | 13.4x | 53 |
 LENLennar Corporation | $20.2B | $81.52 | $79.86 | -2.0% | Buy | 14.9x | 50 |
 PHMPulteGroup, Inc. | $22.9B | $118.71 | $143.86 | +21.2% | Hold | 11.7x | 44 |
 NVRNVR, Inc. | $16.9B | $6246.31 | $7148.67 | +14.4% | Buy | 17.3x | 25 |
 TOLToll Brothers, Inc. | $12.6B | $135.29 | $167.67 | +23.9% | Buy | 10.6x | 46 |
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying TPH stock.
TPH's consensus price target is $39.67, -15.5% below the current price of $46.96. The 22 analysts tracking TPH see downside risk at present valuations.
TPH has a consensus rating of "Hold" based on 22 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is mixed, with 13 Hold ratings making up the largest segment. The consensus 12-month price target of $39.67 implies -15.5% downside from current levels.
TPH trades at a forward P/E of 24.5094x, representing a moderate valuation. With analysts targeting $39.67 (-15.5% implied move), the stock appears close to fair value.
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $54 for TPH, while the most conservative target is $19. The consensus of $39.67 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $78 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
TPH is well covered by analysts, with 22 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 9 have Buy ratings, 13 recommend Hold, and 0 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
The 12-month TPH stock forecast based on 22 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $39.67, with estimates ranging from $19 (bear case) to $54 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Hold". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $59, with bear/bull scenarios of $37/$78.
Our quantitative valuation model calculates TPH's fair value at $59 (base case), with a bear case of $37 and bull case of $78. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 43/100.
TPH trades at a forward P/E ratio of 24.5x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 17.3x. The higher forward P/E suggests near-term earnings pressure. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Analysts are cautious on TPH, with 0 Sell ratings and a price target of $39.67 (-15.5% from current price). The "Hold" consensus suggests careful evaluation before buying. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
TPH analyst price targets range from $19 to $54, a 88% wide spread indicating significant analyst disagreement. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $39.67 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $37-$78 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.
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