Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) Price Target Analysis
Wall Street analyst price targets, ratings consensus & upside potential · Updated May 1, 2026
Current Price
$399.36
Price Target
$639.00
Target Range
$639.00 — $639.00
Analyst Rating
Buy
Forward P/E41.8x
Trailing P/E57.3x
Forward PEG1.85
Implied Growth+31.0%
Median Target$639.00
Analyst Spread0.0%
Price Forecast (1 Year)
Last 12 months price action with 12-month analyst target path
Bear Case
$639
+60.0%
Consensus
$639
+60.0%
Bull Case
$639
+60.0%
Valuation Model TargetsConfidence: 46/100
Bear$430
Base$468
Bull$1093
TPL Price Target Analysis
Updated May 8, 2026As of May 8, 2026, Texas Pacific Land Corporation (TPL) has a Wall Street consensus price target of $639.00, based on estimates from 5 covering analysts. With the stock currently trading at $399.36, this represents a potential upside of +60.0%. The company has a market capitalization of $27.53B.
Analyst price targets range from a low of $639.00 to a high of $639.00, representing a 0% spread in expectations. The median target of $639.00 aligns closely with the consensus average. The tight target dispersion indicates high conviction among analysts.
The current analyst consensus rating is Buy, with 3 analysts rating the stock as a Buy or Strong Buy,1 rating it Hold, and 1 rating it Sell or Strong Sell. The positive sentiment balance indicates moderate optimism about the stock prospects.
From a valuation perspective, TPL trades at a trailing P/E of 57.3x and forward P/E of 41.8x. The forward PEG ratio of 1.85 indicates reasonable valuation for growth. Analysts expect EPS to grow +31.0% over the next year.
Our proprietary valuation model, which blends historical multiples with forward estimates, suggests a base-case price target of $467.69, with bear and bull scenarios of $430.18 and $1092.94 respectively. Model confidence stands at 46/100, suggesting limited visibility into future performance.
Investment Context: Price targets represent analyst expectations for the next 12 months and should be considered alongside your own research. Targets are based on analysts' assumptions about earnings growth, margins, and market conditions which may change. For sector-specific context, view other Energy stocks.
Analyst Sentiment Comparison
Industry Peer AnalysisAvg Peer Upside+8.7%
Avg Forward P/E18.6x
Peers with Coverage7 / 10
| Company | Market Cap | Price | Target | Upside | Rating | Fwd P/E | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VNOMViper Energy, Inc. | $17.6B | $46.98 | $54.20 | +15.4% | Buy | 20.7x | 42 |
 DMLPDorchester Minerals, L.P. | $1.3B | $26.08 | — | — | — | — | — |
 BSMBlack Stone Minerals, L.P. | $2.8B | $13.35 | $17.33 | +29.8% | Buy | 14.7x | 16 |
 NRPNatural Resource Partners L.P. | $1.5B | $113.03 | — | — | Hold | 23.9x | 10 |
 FANGDiamondback Energy, Inc. | $53.6B | $190.44 | $201.27 | +5.7% | Buy | 10.7x | 51 |
 OXYOccidental Petroleum Corporation | $53.7B | $53.95 | $56.64 | +5.0% | Buy | 13.0x | 52 |
 CVXChevron Corporation | $364.2B | $182.51 | $190.93 | +4.6% | Buy | 15.0x | 53 |
 WTTRSelect Water Solutions, Inc. | $1.9B | $16.82 | $16.00 | -4.9% | Buy | 41.7x | 14 |
 NCSMNCS Multistage Holdings, Inc. | $105M | $39.83 | — | — | — | 8.7x | — |
 AROCArchrock, Inc. | $6.7B | $38.11 | $40.00 | +5.0% | Buy | 19.3x | 18 |
Upside Potential Comparison
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Start ComparisonTPL — Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying TPL stock.
What is the TPL stock price target for 2026?
The consensus Wall Street price target for TPL is $639, representing 60.0% upside from the current price of $399.36. With 5 analysts covering the stock, this strong upside suggests significant value not yet reflected in today's share price.
Is TPL a buy, sell, or hold?
TPL has a consensus rating of "Buy" based on 5 Wall Street analysts. The rating breakdown is predominantly bullish, with 3 Buy/Strong Buy ratings. The consensus 12-month price target of $639 implies 60.0% upside from current levels.
Is TPL stock overvalued or undervalued?
At a forward P/E of 41.7745x, TPL trades at a premium valuation. The consensus price target of $639 (60.0% upside) suggests analysts still see growth justifying the multiple.
How high can TPL stock go?
The most bullish Wall Street analyst has a price target of $639 for TPL, while the most conservative target is $639. The consensus of $639 represents the median expectation. Our quantitative valuation model projects a bull case target of $1093 based on optimistic growth and margin assumptions. These targets typically reflect 12-month expectations.
How many analysts cover TPL stock?
TPL is moderately covered, with 5 analysts providing price targets and ratings. Of these, 0 have Strong Buy ratings, 3 have Buy ratings, 1 recommend Hold, and 1 have Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Higher analyst coverage generally indicates greater institutional interest and more reliable consensus estimates.
What is the TPL stock forecast?
The 12-month TPL stock forecast based on 5 Wall Street analysts shows a consensus price target of $639, with estimates ranging from $639 (bear case) to $639 (bull case). The median consensus rating is "Buy". Our proprietary valuation model produces a base case fair value of $468, with bear/bull scenarios of $430/$1093.
What is TPL's fair value based on fundamentals?
Our quantitative valuation model calculates TPL's fair value at $468 (base case), with a bear case of $430 and bull case of $1093. The model uses discounted cash flow analysis, historical growth rates, and margin mean-reversion to project FY+2 earnings, then applies an appropriate P/E multiple. The model confidence score is 46/100.
What is TPL's forward P/E ratio?
TPL trades at a forward P/E ratio of 41.8x based on next-twelve-months earnings estimates compared to a trailing P/E of 57.3x. The lower forward P/E indicates analysts expect earnings growth. A forward P/E is useful for comparing valuations when earnings are expected to change significantly.
Should I buy TPL stock?
Wall Street analysts are very optimistic on TPL, with a "Buy" consensus rating and $639 price target (60.0% upside). 3 of 5 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy. This information is for educational purposes only. Always conduct your own research, consider your financial situation, and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Why do TPL price targets vary so much?
TPL analyst price targets range from $639 to $639, a 0% tight range reflecting strong analyst consensus. Differences stem from varying assumptions about revenue growth, profit margins, competitive dynamics, and valuation multiples. The $639 consensus represents the middle ground. Our model's $430-$1093 range provides an independent fundamental perspective.