Upside case
Bull case
$318+85.8%
VRSK would need investors to value it at roughly 42x earnings — about 19x more generous than today's 22x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewHoldUpdated May 1, 2026
Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Hold
Covering
25
analysts
9 bullish · 1 bearish · 25 covering VRSK
Strong Buy
1
Buy
8
Hold
15
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$231
+35.3% vs today
Scenario Range
$123 – $318
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
25
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
22.4x
Forward P/E · Market cap $22.4B
VRSK price targets
Three scenarios for where VRSK stock could go
Current
~$171
Confidence
59 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $171
Bear
$123
Base
$225
Bull
$318
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$225+31.6%
At 29x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$123-28.3%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 6x multiple contraction could push VRSK down roughly 28% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Verisk Analytics, Inc.
VRSK · NASDAQIndustrialsConsulting ServicesDecember year-end
Verisk Analytics is a data analytics and risk assessment firm that provides predictive analytics and decision support solutions primarily to the insurance industry. It generates revenue through subscription-based data services, analytics software, and consulting—with its Insurance segment contributing roughly 70% of total revenue. The company's moat lies in its proprietary industry-specific data sets, actuarial expertise, and regulatory compliance tools that create high switching costs for customers.
Market Cap
$22.4B
Revenue TTM
$3.1B
Net Income TTM
$910M
Net Margin
29.3%
VRSK Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
83%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+4.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.88/$1.78
Revenue
$773M/$769M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.72/$1.70
Revenue
$768M/$776M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.82/$1.61
Revenue
$779M/$774M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.82/$1.76
Revenue
$783M/$772M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.88/$1.78 | +5.6% | $773M/$769M | +0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.72/$1.70 | +1.2% | $768M/$776M | -1.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.82/$1.61 | +13.0% | $779M/$774M | +0.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.82/$1.76 | +3.4% | $783M/$772M | +1.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$3.3B
+5.6% YoY
FY2
$3.5B
+7.0% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$7.68
+14.1% YoY
FY2
$8.54
+11.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$1.1B
FCF Margin: 36.3%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
VRSK beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
VRSK Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Insurance
100.0%
-24.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
82.1%
+5.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Insurance is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, down 24.4% YoY.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 82.1%, up 5.7% YoY.
VRSK Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Undervalued
Fair value est. $230 — implies +27.1% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
27.1%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
VRSK
26.3x
vs
S&P 500
25.2x
In line with benchmark
vs Industrials Trailing P/E
VRSK
26.3x
vs
Industrials
25.9x
In line with benchmark
vs VRSK 5Y Avg P/E
Today
26.3x
vs
5Y Average
43.7x
40% discount
Forward PE
22.4x
S&P 500
19.1x
+17%
Industrials
20.8x
+7%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
26.3x
S&P 500
25.2x
+4%
Industrials
25.9x
+2%
5Y Avg
43.7x
-40%
PEG Ratio
3.09x
S&P 500
1.75x
+77%
Industrials
1.59x
+94%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
15.0x
S&P 500
15.3x
-1%
Industrials
13.9x
+8%
5Y Avg
24.8x
-39%
Price/FCF
18.8x
S&P 500
21.3x
-12%
Industrials
20.6x
-9%
5Y Avg
37.8x
-50%
Price/Sales
7.3x
S&P 500
3.1x
+133%
Industrials
1.6x
+358%
5Y Avg
12.7x
-42%
Dividend Yield
1.06%
S&P 500
1.88%
-44%
Industrials
1.24%
-15%
5Y Avg
0.63%
+69%
| Metric | VRSK | S&P 500 | Industrials | 5Y Avg VRSK |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 22.4x | 19.1x+17% | 20.8x | — |
| Trailing PE | 26.3x | 25.2x | 25.9x | 43.7x-40% |
| PEG Ratio | 3.09x | 1.75x+77% | 1.59x+94% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.0x | 15.3x | 13.9x | 24.8x-39% |
| Price/FCF | 18.8x | 21.3x-12% | 20.6x | 37.8x-50% |
| Price/Sales | 7.3x | 3.1x+133% | 1.6x+358% | 12.7x-42% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.06% | 1.88% | 1.24% | 0.63% |
VRSK trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 3 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolVRSK Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
VRSK generates $1.1B in free cash flow at a 36.3% margin — 33.0% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 3.8% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$3.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+5.9%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
67.4%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
44.9%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
29.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$6.73
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$1.1B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
36.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
33.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
16.7%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$2.2B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$2.9B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
2.5× FCF
~2.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
—
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
3.8%
Dividend
1.1%
Buyback
2.8%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$624M
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$1.81
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
27.6%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
131M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageVRSK Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
High Risk
Regulatory Changes
Verisk is heavily dependent on sectors like property and casualty, energy, and financial services, which are subject to stringent regulations. Changes in these regulations can lead to significant demand fluctuations, impacting the company's revenue streams.
High Risk
Economic Downturns
The company is significantly reliant on the cyclical economic health of the insurance industry. Broader macroeconomic shocks could adversely affect the insurance sector and capital markets, leading to reduced demand for Verisk's services.
High Risk
Cash Flow Concerns
Recent reports indicate a decrease in net cash provided by operating activities and free cash flow. This decline could limit Verisk's ability to invest in growth initiatives or manage existing debt effectively.
Medium
Data Security
The risk of a data security breach poses a serious threat to Verisk's reputation and could result in increased regulatory scrutiny. Such incidents could lead to financial penalties and loss of client trust.
Medium
Operational Expenses
Verisk is experiencing rising operating expenses, which are putting pressure on its profitability. If these costs continue to increase without a corresponding rise in revenue, the company's margins could be adversely affected.
Medium
Earnings Shortfalls
There is a possibility that Verisk's earnings may fall short of market expectations. Such shortfalls could negatively impact the stock price and investor sentiment.
Lower
Technological Disruption
Verisk faces challenges related to technological disruption and the need for continuous innovation. Failure to keep pace with technological advancements could hinder its competitive position in the market.
Lower
Institutional Investor Influence
A significant percentage of Verisk's shares are owned by institutional investors. Their decisions to sell large volumes of shares could lead to increased volatility and impact the stock price.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why VRSK Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 29, 2026
Dominant Market Position and Moat
Verisk is a leading provider of data analytics and proprietary solutions for the insurance ecosystem, particularly in underwriting and claims processing. Its extensive data, embedded in customer workflows, creates a strong competitive moat that is difficult for others to replicate.
AI as a Tailwind
Bulls argue that AI can be a significant tailwind for Verisk, enhancing its existing capabilities in areas like fraud detection and precision. This technology can help improve efficiency and customer retention, positioning the company favorably in a competitive landscape.
Financial Strength and Growth
Verisk has reported strong quarterly earnings, exceeding analyst expectations, and has demonstrated year-over-year revenue growth along with positive free cash flow growth. The company has also authorized substantial share buybacks and raised its quarterly dividend, reflecting its robust financial health.
Undervaluation Potential
Despite recent stock price declines, analyses suggest Verisk may be undervalued, with discounted cash flow models indicating a potential discount to its intrinsic value. This situation may present a buying opportunity for value-seeking investors.
Resilient Business Model
The insurance industry's need for sophisticated modeling for pricing, claims processing, and fraud detection remains strong, even amidst economic turbulence. This fundamental demand supports Verisk's business operations and growth prospects.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
VRSK Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$170.89
52W Range Position
6%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$161.70
+5.7% from the low
52-Week High
$322.92
-47.1% from the high
1 Month
-7.48%
3 Month
-4.58%
YTD
-22.7%
1 Year
-42.3%
3Y CAGR
-6.7%
5Y CAGR
-0.5%
10Y CAGR
+8.2%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
VRSK vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
22.4x
vs 21.6x median
+4% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+5.6%
vs +7.8% median
-29% below peer median
Net Margin
29.3%
vs — median
Peer median unavailable
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VRS VRSK Verisk Analytics, Inc. | $22.4B | 22.4x | +5.6% | 29.3% | Hold | +35.3% |
MSC MSCI MSCI Inc. | $42.4B | 29.7x | +10.2% | — | Buy | +15.8% |
MCO MCO Moody's Corporation | $79.5B | 26.9x | +7.9% | — | Buy | +21.4% |
SPG SPGI S&P Global Inc. | $125.4B | 21.6x | +7.8% | — | Buy | +29.4% |
FDS FDS FactSet Research Systems Inc. | $9.1B | 11.9x | +5.7% | — | Hold | +31.2% |
ICE ICE Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. | $86.9B | 19.1x | +1.2% | — | Buy | +27.6% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
VRSK Dividend and Capital Return
VRSK returns capital mainly through $624M/year in buybacks (2.8% buyback yield), with a modest 1.06% dividend — combining for 3.8% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 7 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
3.8%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.8%
Dividend Yield
1.06%
Payout Ratio
27.6%
How VRSK Splits Its Return
Div 1.06%
Buyback 2.8%
Dividend 1.06%Buybacks 2.8%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$1.81
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
7Y
3Y Div CAGR
13.2%
5Y Div CAGR
10.8%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
5 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$624M
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.8%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
131M
At 2.8%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $1.80 | +15.4% | 2.0% | 2.8% |
| 2024 | $1.56 | +14.7% | 2.7% | 3.2% |
| 2023 | $1.36 | +9.7% | 8.0% | 8.5% |
| 2022 | $1.24 | +6.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsVRSK Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK) is rated Hold by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 25 analysts covering the stock, 9 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 15 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $231, implying +35.3% from the current price of $171. The bear case scenario is $123 and the bull case is $318.
02What is the VRSK stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for VRSK is $231 based on 25 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $260 (+52.1% from today), and the low-end target is $223 (+30.5%). The base case model target is $225.
03Is Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK) stock overvalued in 2026?
VRSK trades at 22.4x times forward earnings. The stock's valuation is broadly in line with the broader market. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals undervalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for VRSK in 2026 are: (1) Regulatory Changes — Verisk is heavily dependent on sectors like property and casualty, energy, and financial services, which are subject to stringent regulations. (2) Economic Downturns — The company is significantly reliant on the cyclical economic health of the insurance industry. (3) Cash Flow Concerns — Recent reports indicate a decrease in net cash provided by operating activities and free cash flow. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Verisk Analytics, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates VRSK will report consensus revenue of $3.3B (+5.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $7.68 (+14.1% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $3.5B in revenue.
06When does Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for VRSK is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Verisk Analytics, Inc. generate?
Verisk Analytics, Inc. (VRSK) generated $1.1B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 36.3%. VRSK returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.1% yield) and share repurchases ($624M TTM).