Upside case
Bull case
$141+88.0%
XYZ would need investors to value it at roughly 36x earnings — about 17x more generous than today's 19x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Block, Inc. (XYZ) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
35
analysts
25 bullish · 2 bearish · 35 covering XYZ
Strong Buy
0
Buy
25
Hold
8
Sell
2
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$85
+13.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$67 – $141
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
35
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
19.2x
Forward P/E · Market cap $44.5B
XYZ price targets
Three scenarios for where XYZ stock could go
Current
~$75
Confidence
52 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $75
Bear
$67
Base
$107
Bull
$141
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$107+42.7%
At 27x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$67-10.1%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 2x multiple contraction could push XYZ down roughly 10% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Block, Inc.
XYZ · NYSETechnologySoftware - InfrastructureDecember year-end
Block is a financial technology company that provides payment processing and business software tools primarily for small and medium-sized businesses. It generates revenue primarily from transaction fees on payment processing — about 90% of total revenue — with additional income from subscription services, hardware sales, and banking services like Cash App. The company's key advantage is its integrated ecosystem that combines payment hardware, software, and banking services, creating network effects and high switching costs for merchants.
Market Cap
$44.5B
Revenue TTM
$24.5B
Net Income TTM
$806M
Net Margin
3.3%
XYZ Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
-24.9%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 1 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$0.62/$0.63
Revenue
$6.1B/$6.3B
Q4 2025
EPS
$0.54/$0.64
Revenue
$6.1B/$6.3B
Q1 2026
EPS
$0.65/$0.65
Revenue
$6.3B/$6.3B
Q2 2026
EPS
$0.85/$0.68
Revenue
$6.1B/$6.0B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $0.62/$0.63 | -1.1% | $6.1B/$6.3B | -3.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.54/$0.64 | -15.4% | $6.1B/$6.3B | -3.0% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.65/$0.65 | -0.3% | $6.3B/$6.3B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.85/$0.68 | +25.9% | $6.1B/$6.0B | +0.4% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$27.3B
+11.4% YoY
FY2
$29.8B
+9.2% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.95
+118.9% YoY
FY2
$3.22
+9.2% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$3.3B
FCF Margin: 13.3%
Next Earnings
August 6, 2026
Expected EPS
$0.84
Expected Revenue
$6.5B
XYZ beat EPS estimates in 1 of 4 tracked quarters. Mixed delivery makes the upcoming report a key data point for re-rating.
XYZ Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $4.2B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Financial Solutions
100.0%
YoY unavailable
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
UNITED STATES
91.7%
-0.7% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Financial Solutions is the largest disclosed segment at 100.0% of FY 2025 revenue, with no year-over-year comparison yet.
UNITED STATES is the largest reported region at 91.7%, down 0.7% YoY.
XYZ Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $130 — implies +74.2% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
74.2%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
XYZ
35.6x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+46% premium
vs Technology Trailing P/E
XYZ
35.6x
vs
Technology
29.0x
+23% premium
vs XYZ 5Y Avg P/E
Today
35.6x
vs
5Y Average
24.8x
+43% premium
Forward PE
19.2x
S&P 500
18.8x
+2%
Technology
22.3x
-14%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
35.6x
S&P 500
24.4x
+46%
Technology
29.0x
+23%
5Y Avg
24.8x
+43%
PEG Ratio
0.97x
S&P 500
1.66x
-42%
Technology
1.51x
-36%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
23.2x
S&P 500
15.2x
+52%
Technology
16.6x
+39%
5Y Avg
34.6x
-33%
Price/FCF
18.4x
S&P 500
20.7x
-11%
Technology
19.2x
-4%
5Y Avg
66.9x
-73%
Price/Sales
1.8x
S&P 500
3.1x
-41%
Technology
2.4x
-25%
5Y Avg
2.5x
-28%
Dividend Yield
—
S&P 500
1.91%
—
Technology
1.11%
—
5Y Avg
—
—
| Metric | XYZ | S&P 500 | Technology | 5Y Avg XYZ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 19.2x | 18.8x | 22.3x-14% | — |
| Trailing PE | 35.6x | 24.4x+46% | 29.0x+23% | 24.8x+43% |
| PEG Ratio | 0.97x | 1.66x-42% | 1.51x-36% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 23.2x | 15.2x+52% | 16.6x+39% | 34.6x-33% |
| Price/FCF | 18.4x | 20.7x-11% | 19.2x | 66.9x-73% |
| Price/Sales | 1.8x | 3.1x-41% | 2.4x-25% | 2.5x-28% |
| Dividend Yield | — | 1.91% | 1.11% | — |
XYZ trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 2 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolXYZ Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
XYZ generates $3.3B in free cash flow at a 13.3% margin — returns 5.2% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$24.5B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+2.3%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
45.0%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
4.2%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
3.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.35
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$3.3B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
13.3%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
7.0%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
2.1%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$11.3B
Net Cash
Cash exceeds total debt — no net leverage
$2.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
Net cash ✓
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
3.6%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
5.2%
Dividend
—
Buyback
5.2%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$2.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
—
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
—
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
595M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageXYZ Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
High Risk
Leadership instability
The CEO of Square, a key division of Block, is set to leave, raising concerns about leadership continuity and execution.
High Risk
Workforce reduction
Block is cutting 40% of its staff, citing 'intelligence tools,' which may disrupt operations and morale.
Medium
Stock performance disconnect
Despite strong financial performance, Block's stock remains stagnant, trading below its yearly high and underperforming expectations.
Medium
High-growth risks
Block's two-sided ecosystem (Square and Cash App) presents high-growth potential but also high execution and competitive risks.
Lower
Valuation upside limited
Wall Street consensus suggests only a 13% upside potential, indicating muted optimism about near-term stock performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why XYZ Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Undervalued core ecosystems
The market is undervaluing Block's core ecosystems (Square, Cash App, Bitcoin, and AI-driven infrastructure), which are scaling, integrating, and accelerating simultaneously.
Diverse revenue streams
Block's diversified portfolio, including Square, Cash App, Afterpay, TIDAL, Bitkey, and Proto, increases access to the global economy and drives growth.
Strong Zacks Rank
Block holds a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), reinforcing bullish sentiment and investor confidence in the stock.
Cost-cutting measures
Block's staff reduction by 40% through 'intelligence tools' aims to improve operational efficiency and profitability.
Revenue growth potential
Despite a net loss, Block reported significant revenue ($6.06 billion in Q1 2026), indicating strong top-line growth potential.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
XYZ Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$74.78
52W Range Position
77%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$48.21
+55.1% from the low
52-Week High
$82.50
-9.4% from the high
1 Month
+5.88%
3 Month
+29.29%
YTD
+14.8%
1 Year
+18.5%
3Y CAGR
+3.8%
5Y CAGR
-20.6%
10Y CAGR
+23.3%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
XYZ vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
19.2x
vs 30.0x median
-36% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+11.4%
vs +5.7% median
+101% above peer median
Net Margin
3.3%
vs 15.0% median
-78% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XYZ XYZ Block, Inc. | $44.5B | 19.2x | +11.4% | 3.3% | Buy | +13.0% |
PYP PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc. | $37.5B | 8.0x | +4.5% | 15.0% | Hold | +18.7% |
AFR AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. | $24.6B | 59.1x | +25.3% | 11.9% | Buy | +10.8% |
SOF SOFI SoFi Technologies, Inc. | $22.8B | 30.0x | +5.7% | 10.1% | Hold | +19.5% |
HOO HOOD Robinhood Markets, Inc. | $97.4B | 58.5x | +12.2% | 41.1% | Buy | -0.0% |
FIS FISV Fiserv, Inc. | $25.6B | 5.9x | +3.8% | 15.2% | Buy | +48.7% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
XYZ Dividend and Capital Return
XYZ returns 5.2% annually — null% through dividends and 5.2% through buybacks.
Dividend UnknownFCF Unknown
Total Shareholder Yield
5.2%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.2%
Dividend Yield
—
Payout Ratio
—
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.00
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
0Y
3Y Div CAGR
—
5Y Div CAGR
—
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
—
0 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$2.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
31M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.2%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
595M
At 5.2%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
FAQ
7 questionsXYZ Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Block, Inc. (XYZ) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Block, Inc. (XYZ) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 35 analysts covering the stock, 25 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 8 rate it Hold, and 2 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $85, implying +13.0% from the current price of $75. The bear case scenario is $67 and the bull case is $141.
02What is the XYZ stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for XYZ is $85 based on 35 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $98 (+31.1% from today), and the low-end target is $74 (-1.0%). The base case model target is $107.
03Is Block, Inc. (XYZ) stock overvalued in 2026?
XYZ trades at 19.2x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Block, Inc. (XYZ) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for XYZ in 2026 are: (1) Leadership instability — The CEO of Square, a key division of Block, is set to leave, raising concerns about leadership continuity and execution. (2) Workforce reduction — Block is cutting 40% of its staff, citing 'intelligence tools,' which may disrupt operations and morale. (3) Stock performance disconnect — Despite strong financial performance, Block's stock remains stagnant, trading below its yearly high and underperforming expectations. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Block, Inc.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates XYZ will report consensus revenue of $27.3B (+11.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.95 (+118.9% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $29.8B in revenue.
06When does Block, Inc. (XYZ) report its next earnings?
Block, Inc. is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-06. Consensus expects EPS of $0.84 and revenue of $6.5B. Over recent quarters, XYZ has beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Block, Inc. generate?
Block, Inc. (XYZ) generated $3.3B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 13.3%. XYZ returns capital to shareholders through and share repurchases ($2.3B TTM).