MODEL VERDICT
American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $11.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $12.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $12.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $12.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.30 | $11.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $2.14 | -81.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $63.15 | +433.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $75.65 | +538.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $1.84 | -84.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.93 | +93.7% | 100% | 61 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 58× | 64× | 70× (Current) | 76× | 82× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $10 | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 |
| Conservative (7%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $11 | $12 | $13 | $14 | $15 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $11 | $12 | $14 | $15 | $16 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 38.16 | 14.06 | 7.55 | 90.18 | 37.86 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.46 | 15.97 | 13.70 | 24.01 | 4.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.96 | 11.88 | 8.53 | 45.04 | 13.91 |
| P/FCF | 13.73 | 9.67 | 8.19 | 23.32 | 8.34 |
| P/FFO | 8.99 | 4.25 | 3.18 | 33.82 | 12.18 |
| P/AFFO | 95.37 | 83.82 | 61.04 | 141.26 | 41.34 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.27 | 0.23 | 0.17 | 0.44 | 0.11 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 11 valuation metrics, the model estimates AAL's fair value at $22.93 vs the current price of $11.84, implying +93.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.97 (P10) to $35.64 (P90), with a median of $17.97.
AAL's current P/E of 69.6x compares to the industry median of 12.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +453.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 38.2x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
37 analysts cover AAL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $15.90 (range: $13.50 — $17.00), implying +34.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (17), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: AAL trades at the 9440th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (38.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for AAL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.