MODEL VERDICT
Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $75.02 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $79.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $91.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $88.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $85.58 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $57.71 | -23.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $103.38 | +37.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $56.20 | -25.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $105.61 | +40.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $78.32 | +4.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $105.65 | +40.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $52.95 | -29.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $136.53 | +82.0% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 133.13 | 17.34 | 12.20 | 485.64 | 235.04 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.73 | 17.73 | 10.85 | 41.55 | 12.73 |
| EV/EBITDA | 39.75 | 9.45 | 7.62 | 193.02 | 75.10 |
| P/FCF | 25.10 | 20.49 | 10.94 | 43.87 | 16.94 |
| P/FFO | 21.36 | 7.36 | 4.37 | 93.28 | 35.27 |
| P/TBV | 2.18 | 1.54 | 1.00 | 4.33 | 1.24 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.18 | 1.54 | 1.00 | 4.33 | 1.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.26 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 3.06 | 0.95 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates ALGT's fair value at $136.53 vs the current price of $75.02, implying +82.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $136.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $58.42 (P10) to $318.07 (P90), with a median of $132.05.
ALGT's current P/E of -30.3x compares to the industry median of 15.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -292.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 133.1x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
30 analysts cover ALGT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $109.13 (range: $95.00 — $130.00), implying +45.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (17), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ALGT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.