MODEL VERDICT
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $68.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $68.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $71.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $71.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $67.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $65.79 | -4.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $129.96 | +88.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $211.10 | +206.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 3 industry peers | $79.42 | +15.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $244.09 | +253.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 2 industry peers | $100.84 | +46.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $94.55 | +37.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $64.29 | -6.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $139.04 | +101.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 3 industry peers | $74.85 | +8.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $247.30 | +258.5% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $40 | $56 | $72 | $88 | $104 |
| Conservative (7%) | $41 | $57 | $73 | $90 | $106 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $42 | $59 | $76 | $93 | $110 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $43 | $61 | $78 | $96 | $113 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 23.13 | 10.21 | 5.61 | 88.82 | 32.37 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.21 | 11.01 | 7.82 | 30.89 | 8.74 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.05 | 7.22 | 5.71 | 13.34 | 2.75 |
| P/FCF | 324.93 | 13.59 | 10.91 | 1565.64 | 693.60 |
| P/FFO | 6.45 | 6.12 | 3.72 | 11.00 | 2.45 |
| P/AFFO | 23.59 | 15.87 | 15.40 | 47.23 | 15.76 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.13 | 2.56 | 2.19 | 16.67 | 5.30 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.77 | 0.72 | 0.42 | 1.50 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates DAL's fair value at $247.30 vs the current price of $68.98, implying +258.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $247.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $99.31 (P10) to $618.36 (P90), with a median of $243.26.
DAL's current P/E of 9.0x compares to the industry median of 27.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -67.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 23.1x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
44 analysts cover DAL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $82.45 (range: $77.00 — $88.00), implying +19.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (2), Buy (34), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for DAL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.