MODEL VERDICT
United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $92.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $93.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $101.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $94.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $96.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $136.20 | +47.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $194.88 | +110.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $186.35 | +101.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $105.51 | +14.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $322.06 | +248.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 3 industry peers | $60.87 | -34.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $167.39 | +80.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $166.15 | +79.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $179.92 | +94.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $99.38 | +7.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $160.68 | +73.7% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $53 | $74 | $96 | $117 | $138 |
| Conservative (7%) | $54 | $76 | $98 | $120 | $141 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $56 | $79 | $101 | $124 | $146 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $58 | $81 | $104 | $128 | $151 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.19 | 10.28 | 5.23 | 16.91 | 4.39 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.37 | 10.27 | 8.60 | 15.66 | 3.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.09 | 7.59 | 6.16 | 24.04 | 6.90 |
| P/FCF | 10.59 | 9.80 | 8.45 | 14.30 | 2.56 |
| P/FFO | 8.17 | 4.82 | 2.59 | 27.05 | 9.32 |
| P/TBV | 5.69 | 5.82 | 4.51 | 6.61 | 0.87 |
| P/AFFO | 62.50 | 70.03 | 29.77 | 87.69 | 29.68 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.15 | 2.03 | 1.47 | 2.80 | 0.46 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.52 | 0.57 | 0.25 | 0.79 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates UAL's fair value at $160.68 vs the current price of $92.52, implying +73.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $160.68 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $118.76 (P10) to $179.34 (P90), with a median of $147.91.
UAL's current P/E of 9.1x compares to the industry median of 18.2x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -50.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.2x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
47 analysts cover UAL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $136.10 (range: $112.00 — $150.00), implying +47.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (31), Hold (16), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for UAL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.