MODEL VERDICT
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $23.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $16.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $16.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $13.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $13.53 | Pending | -0.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 26 analyst estimates | $25.49 | +8.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 27 industry peers | $42.82 | +82.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 26 industry peers | $34.77 | +48.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 31 industry peers | $25.97 | +10.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 31 industry peers | $38.79 | +65.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $37.24 | +58.9% | 100% | 67 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.40 | 27.21 | 14.26 | 28.90 | 6.81 |
| EV/EBIT | 36.06 | 19.89 | 9.79 | 149.44 | 50.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.70 | 13.28 | 6.58 | 16.77 | 3.96 |
| P/FCF | 77.49 | 60.50 | 10.07 | 185.10 | 66.67 |
| P/FFO | 25.11 | 18.53 | 9.01 | 63.90 | 22.06 |
| P/TBV | 9.41 | 10.16 | 1.72 | 17.62 | 5.84 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.78 | 2.13 | 0.60 | 2.60 | 0.79 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.83 | 2.13 | 0.39 | 2.89 | 0.87 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates ACHC's fair value at $37.24 vs the current price of $23.44, implying +58.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $37.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $27.21 (P10) to $60.73 (P90), with a median of $41.07.
ACHC's current P/E of -1.9x compares to the industry median of 19.7x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -109.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.4x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
25 analysts cover ACHC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $19.82 (range: $14.00 — $25.00), implying -15.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for ACHC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.