MODEL VERDICT
Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $14.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $14.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $14.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $13.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $12.91 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $5.44 | -61.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $20.57 | +44.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $23.44 | +64.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $11.85 | -17.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $0.21 | -98.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $8.22 | -42.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $30.29 | +112.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $22.73 | +59.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.73 | +24.2% | 100% | 73 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 18.50 | 17.50 | 14.76 | 23.46 | 3.72 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.26 | 12.17 | 10.17 | 16.89 | 2.60 |
| P/FCF | 32.39 | 13.52 | 6.94 | 131.13 | 44.35 |
| P/FFO | 136.74 | 42.55 | 20.03 | 444.61 | 178.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.90 | 0.78 | 0.44 | 1.68 | 0.42 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.98 | 0.86 | 0.41 | 1.74 | 0.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates SGRY's fair value at $17.73 vs the current price of $14.27, implying +24.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.73 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.19 (P10) to $26.97 (P90), with a median of $18.84.
SGRY's current P/E of -23.4x compares to the industry median of 14.6x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -260.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover SGRY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $18.60 (range: $15.00 — $21.00), implying +30.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (8), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SGRY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.